Last Year's Fantasy Football Breakouts to Avoid in 2025: 4 Regression Candidates and Draft Fades

John's fantasy football busts and draft avoids for 2025. His 2024 breakouts to avoid in 2024 fantasy football drafts, including Jerry Jeudy and more.

It seems that many fantasy managers simply expect players who have any kind of breakout season to continue playing very well until they reach the age of 32 or older. But that isn't always the case. Instead, players often have very inconsistent production throughout their careers.

Sometimes, one-hit wonders do happen. It's not uncommon. Ignoring a player's situation and who deserves the credit for their production isn't a very good idea. I try my best to give credit where credit is due. Sometimes, that leads to me being lower on some players than the consensus.

And that's the point of this article. Some breakouts are emblematic of a future of sustained success on the way. Some are more anomalous and should be taken with a grain of salt. So let's break down four of last year's fantasy football breakouts to avoid in 2025!

• 2025 fantasy football rankings
• Running back (RB) fantasy football rankings
• Wide receiver (WR) fantasy football rankings
• Tight end (TE) fantasy football rankings
• Quarterback (QB) fantasy football rankings
• FLEX fantasy football rankings
• Defense (D/ST) fantasy football rankings
• Kicker (K) fantasy football rankings
• Dynasty fantasy football rankings

J.K. Dobbins, RB, Denver Broncos

While his performance overall last season was pretty solid, and you might think you're getting a steal even if you reach for him in 2025 drafts, it doesn't make a lot of sense for a player getting so little money and signed so late to take over a big role from a highly talented rookie that was drafted in the second round of the 2025 NFL Draft.

My analysis has led me to believe that Dobbins was primarily signed for two reasons -- because rookie R.J. Harvey, for all his greatness, isn't a good pass-protector, and because RBs Audric Estime and Jaleel McLaughlin were terrible last season. Neither impressed head coach Sean Payton enough to secure even the RB2 role.

RJ Harvey was the ONLY RB in CFB to hit these marks:

➖1,500+ Rushing Yards
➖Sub 250 Attempts

His 2nd Round Draft Capital tells us a lot..

Notable Information:

➖40 Time: 4.40 (96th Percentile)
➖Target Share: 9.3% (96th Percentile)

A VERY clear path to being Denver’s RB1 pic.twitter.com/MhwIlbFz59

— Austin Abbott (@AustinAbbottFF) May 8, 2025

Harvey is an absolute stud of a running back. If he had gone to an SEC or Big 10 school, he would likely have been drafted even higher. And it's important to continue to hold the line and not lose sight of how fantastic he was.

Despite being a workhorse back and having to carry his team's offense on his shoulders, he still averaged 6.8 yards per carry and a ridiculous 25 total touchdowns on his way to 1,844 yards from scrimmage in his senior season. He was a nightmare to tackle, catch up to, and otherwise slow down.

Unlike Quinshon Judkins, who often had very poor games at Ohio State against good competition, even with great run blocking, RJ Harvey just smashed every P4 team he played against in 2024. Not a bad game in his game log here, and he didn't have TreVeyon Henderson to spell him. pic.twitter.com/W5coQxT70V

— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) June 3, 2025

Harvey's ADP has remained pretty stubborn, and that's a good thing. As more of the community watches his tape and familiarizes themselves with his game, more are starting to accept that he's the real deal. Dobbins, meanwhile, is not.

The 2024 Los Angeles Chargers starting running back averaged four or fewer yards per carry in eight of his games last season. Aside from his huge games against two terrible run defenses to start the 2024 year, he didn't do much at all impressive. He was just spammed with volume.

The fact that the Chargers let him go and invested a first-round pick in a running back, and signed former Pittsburgh Steelers running back Najee Harris instead of re-signing Dobbins, should send a big warning signal. And zero teams signed Dobbins until June.

J.K. Dobbins after his first two games against terrible defenses in 2024:

-168 rush, 639 yards, 3.8 YPC (Worse than Javonte Williams)
-0.12 MTF/Att (Worse than Javonte Williams)

— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) July 7, 2025

Dobbins was not good last year, and he likely won't be very good in fantasy this season. He should be especially bad later in the year, when Harvey starts to ramp up his production, as talented rookies often do, as they acclimate themselves to the NFL.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seattle Seahawks

Smith-Njigba will, unfortunately, be transitioning from a pass-heavy offense with a solid quarterback to a run-heavy offense with a quarterback who's absolutely terrible under pressure and playing behind a poor offensive line. There are a lot of ways I envision JSN not living up to his draft capital.

Many arguments are being made for him having a huge target share and simply catching so many passes that he doesn't have to be hyper-productive to live up to his ADP. In run-heavy offenses, though, the target share players get is less valuable because the team simply isn't producing as many opportunities for targets.

Last year the Seattle Seahawks had the 5th highest pass rate over expectation in the league. All while Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf played through injury. SEA's new OC, Klint Kubiak, passed at a way lower rate in 2024. He's a super run-heavy OC. Bad news for Jaxon Smith-Njigba pic.twitter.com/VPHtCKKVAf

— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) June 27, 2025

Kubiak isn't intent on abandoning the run to lean into the pass as much as possible. And Darnold was awful everywhere in his career until he landed in the elite Minnesota Vikings offensive situation, where he got to play behind a much better offensive line and with much better receivers than Seattle has right now.

JSN also didn't break out until the Seahawks' true WR1 from last season, DK Metcalf, got injured. Before Metcalf's knee injury in Week 7, he was the clear top receiver for Seattle, and while the two had similar target numbers, it was Metcalf who outproduced his counterpart.

In Weeks 1-7 of 2024:

DK Metcalf: 61 Tgt, 35 Rec, 568 yds, 3 TD, 43% air yds, 21.8% tgt share, 0.23 TPRR, 2.16 YPRR, 9.39 YPT

JSN: 55 Tgt, 43 Rec, 319 yds, 1 TD, 21.7% air yds, 19.3% tgt share, 1.20 YPRR, 5.91 YPT

JSN gets a QB and OC downgrade in 2025. pic.twitter.com/ESSZhYxV0B

— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) July 7, 2025

There isn't a lot to like about JSN at his ADP. There are multiple receivers taken after him that I'd much rather select, like the Kansas City Chiefs' Rashee Rice or Davante Adams from the Los Angeles Rams. JSN's athletic limitations effectively prohibit him from becoming a dominant outside WR1 in any offense.

That doesn't mean he can't be a good slot receiver, but it's concerning that Seattle signed Cooper Kupp, who is... a slot receiver. Kupp wasn't effective at all against outside man coverage in 2024. His numbers were abysmal. So he's likely to get plenty of slot snaps.

Jerry Jeudy, WR, Cleveland Browns

Jeudy's breakout in 2024 wasn't real. Not enough credit is given to quarterback Jameis Winston, who has authored massively explosive stretches of fantasy production from his receivers. He's gone now, and it looks like the eventual starter for the Browns will be rookie quarterback Shedeur Sanders.

Sanders wasn't good in college. Despite an offseason filled with gassing him up, his struggles under pressure -- he's terrible at dealing with all kinds of pressure -- and his lack of good production at Colorado make it seem exceedingly unlikely that he'll come close to Winston's production.

The first picture is Jerry Jeudy’s 2024 season with Jameis Winston games boxed in red.

The second picture are his career numbers.

Spot the outliers in each picture…. pic.twitter.com/Tscr1ScrTD

— Drew Davenport (@DrewDavenportFF) June 26, 2025

As long as you're not intentionally deluding yourself into thinking Jeudy is good because you have him on a dynasty roster and desperately want him to be good, you should recognize pretty easily that his games with Winston were not normal. That tends to happen.

Winston also tricked us into thinking New Orleans Saints WR Chris Olave was destined to be an elite WR1 at some point. That never happened. And even if QB Joe Flacco starts for the Browns, he's not as risky with the ball as Winston is.

Chuba Hubbard, RB, Carolina Panthers

Hubbard had a very good 2024 for fantasy football. But it's important to put on the tape and try to look at things as objectively as possible. Hubbard benefited massively from a fantastic run-blocking offensive line. As a film analyst, it's always very revealing to me when an RB is running through green grass constantly.

It's cool to see some of the moves he makes, but when massive lanes are opened up in the defense for the back to run through, we should recognize that the OL deserves most of the credit. This might help us understand things better when backup RB Rico Dowdle gets more touches than Hubbard managers are happy with.

Giving credit where credit is due is very important. I'm not saying Chuba Hubbard is bad, but the offensive line's run blocking is crazy good. I think Dave Canales wants a committee backfield, and Rico Dowdle could play well behind this line too. https://t.co/r4XIcYnpBX

— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) July 6, 2025

Hubbard doesn't have elite athletic traits, nor is he one of the most elusive RBs in the league. He's also not a very good pass-catcher and doesn't have home-run speed. Last season, it seemed that Panthers' head coach Dave Canales wanted to run a committee backfield, as he tried to get Jonathan Brooks (knee) more involved.

That didn't come to fruition, as Brooks got hurt. But Dowdle is very similar athletically to Hubbard, and if Canales wants to run a committee, it's unlikely we'll see Hubbard get the workhorse usage his fantasy managers loved last season.

Chuba Hubbard and Rico Dowdle in 2024:

+ Both Top 14 in EPA/Rush
+ Both Top 8 in Rush Success Rate
(See screenshots)

These two both also finished Top 8 in yards after contact per attempt, with Chuba at 2.70 and Rico at 2.64.

The newly formed duo has some notable similarities… pic.twitter.com/G2pmjG0URH

— Dataroma (@ffdataroma) March 13, 2025

Dowdle languished on a poorly run Cowboys offense with worse run-blocking than the Panthers had last season. I don't think it's accurate to say that Hubbard is much better than he is. In the same situation, they could be used more interchangeably, which would make Hubbard's ADP harder to swallow.

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