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Zach looks at 3 starting pitcher fantasy baseball breakouts, sleepers off to hot starts in 2025. Are Ryan Yarbrough, Ben Brown, Chad Patrick for real?
As we get deep into the heart of the fantasy baseball season and the long days of summer, fantasy baseball rotations are being stretched to the max for just about every team. Even if you have avoided major losses due to injury or dropping an important starter for ineffectiveness, building depth at starting pitcher is critical to your fantasy success the rest of the season. Several pitchers are putting together impressive runs lately, but fantasy managers must determine if these breakouts are legitimate and if these players can ultimately contribute to their team bringing home the championship.
In this piece, we will take a look at three pitchers who have surprised with some strong showings over the last few weeks: New York Yankees left-handed pitcher Ryan Yarbrough, Chicago Cubs left-handed pitcher Ben Brown, and Milwaukee Brewers right-handed pitcher Chad Patrick.
Should fantasy managers run to the waiver wire to add these breakout pitchers? Or are they fool's gold? Let's dive in!
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Ryan Yarbrough, New York Yankees
2025 Stats: 41 1/3 IP, 2.83 ERA, 3.45 SIERA, 0.99 WHIP, 24.7% K%
38% Rostered
Yarbrough has been solid most of the season for the Yankees, but he really burst onto the scene with a huge Sunday Night Baseball performance against the Dodgers last week.
He improved to 3-0 with the win and has transitioned from the bullpen as a long relief option back to a traditional starter. Since moving to the rotation, he has allowed two runs or fewer in each of his five starts and stretched out to six innings in each of his last two outings, getting wins over the Angels and the Dodgers.
Ryan Yarbrough, Nasty 77mph Changeup. 👌 pic.twitter.com/0rPM9Ord02
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 1, 2025
The key to Yarbrough's success has been a new grip on his changeup that he's been working on with pitching coach Matt Blake. Blake has been able to transform several reclamation projects lately for the Yankees, and Yarbrough seems to be the latest pitcher to take a big step forward with his guidance.
The soft-tossing lefty is a bit of an anomaly since his strikeout numbers have been good despite his lack of velocity. It is hard to say how long he can keep it up since his metrics are such an outlier in general. If he keeps getting so much movement, he will likely be able to stay effective, and the strong Yankees lineup should give him plenty of chances to pick up wins with quality starts.
I'm not sure I fully buy that he'll be able to keep avoiding contact as hitters get more of a read on what he's doing now, but until they do, he's a great option to grab and use while he's on such a heater. The fact that he doesn't have the extra velocity to overpower hitters makes him higher risk and reduces his margin for error. Still, right now, his control and precision levels are high enough to overcome those obstacles and make him relevant in all formats.
Verdict: His long-term outlook is hard to nail down since his recent success is not without basis, but it may not be sustainable. The Yankees' rotation will also be crowded as players return from injury, which could also call his role into question in the coming months. In the short term, he's a great pickup and a player you can definitely keep playing with confidence for as long as he keeps being so effective.
As the weather warms up and the situation changes, he may not be on your roster forever, but he makes a lot of sense in the short term, given his changeup's impressive transformation.
Ben Brown, Chicago Cubs
2025 Stats: 56 2/3 IP, 5.72 ERA, 3.28 SIERA, 1.46 WHIP, 28.0% K%
14% Rostered
Brown was technically working out of the bullpen in his last outing, coming on after opener Drew Pomeranz opened against the Reds. The situation definitely seemed to work for the 25-year-old righty, though, since he thrived with six shutout innings. He didn't get the win but looked very sharp with nine strikeouts while giving up just one hit and one walk.
Only three starting pitchers have under a 2.50 SIERA since May 1st:
Tarik Skubal
Garrett Crochet
Ben Brown 👀pic.twitter.com/lTw8ejqApn— Kirk Snyder (@dynastyinfo411) June 3, 2025
In several games this season, Brown has flashed outstanding upside with a high strikeout rate and true ace potential, but he has also given up lots of loud contact at times and gotten a little unfortunate with some results, according to the metrics.
Brown has an ugly 5.72 ERA but a much better 4.05 xERA. 3.11 FIP and 3.18 SIERA. He has given up a 45.3% hard-hit rate but a below-average 63.1% LOB%. The main source of his trouble, though, has been a .374 BABIP against. The league average for balls in play is around .300, so the fact that balls put into play against him are finding holes much more often than usual has resulted in a higher ERA than he deserves.
That said, he has given up 15 barrels and six home runs, so he needs to reduce mistakes and not give up so much hard contact for the BABIP to come down.
Brown definitely has a sky-high ceiling, but he's very high risk at this point. While he has had outstanding games like he did against the Reds, he has also had some awful outings. In his previous game in the same matchup, he gave up eight runs on seven hits in 4 1/3 innings against Cincinnati, perfectly demonstrating the risk and the upside in back-to-back appearances.
Verdict: Brown will cost you in ERA and WHIP categories until he grows more consistent. His strikeout potential gives him a very high ceiling, and he's on a team where run support shouldn't be a huge issue going into the summer.
If you can stash him and use him in just the right matchups and situations, he can be a pickup in mixed leagues right now, but be aware of the boom-or-bust nature of his outings and use him only when it makes sense for your squad overall.
If he can build on last Saturday's performance, he could be a better pickup as the season goes on.
Chad Patrick, Milwaukee Brewers
2025 Stats: 2.97 ERA, 4.15 SIERA, 1.21 WHIP, 21.6% K%
16% Rostered
The Brewers' rotation suffered multiple injuries early in the season, which allowed Patrick to get a chance ahead of some highly regarded prospects who needed more seasoning at Triple-A. Patrick stepped up and has been excellent for the Brewers, continuing to thrive even though the rotation is very crowded now with Logan Henderson and Jacob Misiorowski waiting in the wings at Triple-A.
Patrick had a great season in Triple-A for the Nashville Sounds last season, going 14-1 with a 2.90 ERA and 3.98 FIP with 145 strikeouts in 136 1/3 innings. He wasn't called up for his debut in the majors until the start of this season, though, when the 26-year-old righty made the team out of spring training.
In his 13 games, he has a 2.97 ERA, 3.29 FIP, and 8.06 K/9. He has been even better recently, giving up only three total runs in his last three starts with at least six strikeouts in each outing. He fell just one out short of qualifying for the win in two of those starts, but he continues to be extremely effective, relying primarily on his excellent cutter
Chad Patrick in TJStats NL Rookie Pitcher of the Month for May!
Patrick continued his strong rookie season with 38.0 IP while posting a 3.32 ERA and 2.72 FIP. He has been a godsend for the Brewers! pic.twitter.com/LvfC6NsyWK
— Thomas Nestico (@TJStats) June 1, 2025
Verdict: Patrick's performance has definitely been strong enough for him to be rostered in most formats. The biggest question mark around his viability going forward is what the Brewers will do with so many options in the starting rotation. Brandon Woodruff is working his way back soon, and with so much talent at Triple-A, Patrick could end up moving to the bullpen later in the season.
Until the situation changes, Patrick's high strikeout rate makes him an excellent pickup to use in standard formats. He doesn't have the long-term upside that Brown brings, but he has been better overall this year and much less volatile. He hasn't been working deep into many games, but is doing enough to be usable in almost all formats. Of the three breakouts in this post, he is my favorite addition.
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