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Justin Carter looks at potential NCAA Tournament bracket busts for March Madness. These are highly-seed teams to consider avoiding for your 2022 brackets.
It's bracket time, which means it's time for you to identify some sleepers and pick some 12s over some 5s and all of that.
But tournament time also means that you need to identify something else: busts. What teams got seeded too high? Which teams have struggled too much lately? Let's look at the top-six seed from each region that worries me the most.
When trying to locate potential busts, over-seeded squads, and teams to avoid backing for the 2022 tournament, it's best to start right here. Be sure to also check out the rest of our NCAA Tournament articles and analysis including previews, predictions, sleepers, busts and guides on how to fill out your brackets.
Duke (West, No. 2 seed)
Among all the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds, Duke has the worst KenPom adjusted efficiency margin. And sure, that number is still 12th in the country, but's worth pointing out that the No. 3 seed in this region, Texas Tech, rates above Duke.
The end of the season wasn't kind to the Blue Devils. There was the 94-81 home loss to UNC in Coach K's final home game, then there was an 82-67 loss to Virginia Tech in the ACC Tournament.
Add in how tough this region is — the aforementioned Tech team, but also strong teams like Arkansas and UConn who could make life tough for the Blue Devils if they make the Elite Eight and Gonzaga gets upset. Oh, and there's the Zags, arguably the best team in the country.
Duke is always a trendy pick to make the Final Four. I wouldn't make that pick this year.
UCLA (East, No. 4 seed)
While UCLA is eighth in KenPom's adjusted efficiency metric, this is a team that isn't as safe a pick as the advanced metrics suggest.
And the biggest reason is who the team has to play.
In the first round, the Bruins get Akron. The Zips went 24-9 in the MAC. The team has won eight in a row and in non-conference, lost by just one to Ohio State. I'm not picking Akron over UCLA, but I do think it'll be a tough game.
But then comes No. 5 seed Saint Mary's. The team went 25-7 and ranks 16th in adjusted efficiency margin, including a No. 9 ranking in defense. That's going to be a GAME, and I think Saint Mary's is going to win it.
LSU (Midwest, No. 6 seed)
There's no denying LSU is talented, but Will Wade got fired a few days ago. The team lost to Arkansas 79-67 in the SEC Tournament and went just 9-9 in conference play, the same conference record as Texas A&M, which missed the tournament.
I get that this team was 22-11 on the year, but the Tigers were 2-8 on the road. Should they even be a six? Especially with the coach gone?
The defense is good enough to win a title, but the offense is 89th in the country in KenPom. That's below a whole bunch of teams that missed the tournament. And LSU gets an Iowa State team in the first round that's also really good defensively and should be able to slow down the LSU offense even more. I expect a low-scoring game that ends with an LSU first-round exit.
Illinois (South, No. 4 seed)
Chattanooga vs. Illinois in the first round is a really intriguing game.
The Mocs went 27-7 this season and have some good players in Malachi Smith and Silvio de Sousa. The team ranks in the top 100 in KenPom on both offense and defense. The team played Murray State close in non-conference. This could be an upset.
As for the Illini, the team lost in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament to Indiana. The team's advanced numbers are good, but this is also a team that lost by 20 to Cincinnati earlier in the season and went 4-4 against ranked teams.
Illinois just doesn't feel as good as they should feel.
And a win over Chattanooga puts them in line to face No. 5 seed Houston, which is really underranked. The Cougars are fourth in KenPom, ahead of two of the No. 1 seeds in this tournament. Illinois faces such a tough path to the Sweet 16 that I'd rather bet on them losing early.
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