RADIO
Five weeks of football are in the books and I am even more confused about what roughing the passer is than ever before. We're seeing some backups step into prominent roles worth noting while others are thrust into the spotlight by injuries around them. Detroit, Houston, Las Vegas, and Tennessee are the first foursome on bye so you may need to widen your free-agent lens.
Joining our famous waiver wire pickups list, our weekly fantasy football waiver wire columns by position, and our free new Who Should I Pickup? Waiver Wire comparison tool, this column focuses on suggested waiver wire bidding percentages for fantasy football owners in leagues using a Free Agent Acquisition Budget (FAAB).
As a caveat, these prices do not by any means indicate how much these free-agent players will go for. Each league values players differently and will continue to do so. These values are here to provide a baseline or priority order to understand roughly how much you should be looking to spend on a particular player. Specific needs are always reasonable cause for a manual override. Here are my median FAAB bid ranges and adds going into Week 6.
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FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Quarterbacks
Geno Smith (QB, SEA) - FAAB Bid: 2-4%
35% rostered
Smith nearly led Seattle to a sweet comeback over the Saints via his first game of 2022 with three passing touchdowns. He only completed 16 passes but he showed no fear going downfield with 268 yards on the day. It looks like chemistry and confidence with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett is all there.
Smith needed to shoulder more with Rashaad Penny injured early (ugh) and while Seattle has capable depth, it still shifts the needle more toward passing moving forward. They draw Arizona’s middling defense next.
Jacoby Brissett (QB, CLE) - FAAB Bid: 1-2%
6% rostered
Brissett has only thrown for one passing touchdown in Cleveland’s last two games (both losses) but chipped in 32 rush yards in Week 5. This boils down to supplying y’all with a very low-rostered option and identifying a crummy Patriots matchup in Week 6 as a potential funnel spot.
The Pats play slow, which stinks for us, but they also take away opponents’ strongest option. For Cleveland, that’s Nick Chubb and the rushing attack. It could get ugly in real life but fantasy compilers could enjoy passing volume out of Brissett if NE stacks the box.
Daniel Jones (QB, NYG) - FAAB Bid: 1-2%
22% rostered
I was terrified of Jones in Week 5 given his ankle issue and reliance on mobility combined with a depleted WR corps, but he won anyway. It wasn’t a good fantasy day so we were right on that, as he accounted for zero touchdowns despite 21-of-27 passing for 217 yards.
He still hit his weekly rush quota in the 6-10 carry range and will face Baltimore, Jacksonville, and Seattle before a Week 9 bye. Here’s the key, you should only make the add if you believe Kadarius Toney and/or Wan'Dale Robinson suit up for Week 6. That’s where we start to have a fantasy ceiling worth talking about.
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Running Backs
Kenneth Walker III (RB, SEA) - FAAB Bid: 40-60+%
45% rostered
Walker came on after Rashaad Penny suffered a fractured tibia (ugh) and the rookie wasted little time with a 69-yard touchdown in the fourth quarter. Walker boasts immense talent but a preseason groin injury gave Penny a clear edge from the get-go, but now the pendulum has swung.
We can’t expect Seattle to suddenly make Walker their every-down guy and elevate him from ~8-10 touches per week to 25, but it is possible. DeeJay Dallas looks like the third-down back. Breathe, it’ll be okay. Walker is still the alpha waiver target where available. I have no problem throwing the bankroll at him if your team is already on thin ice. Don't roll your eyes at me, the rostered rate is what I have to go off of!
Kenneth Walker III handled 88% of the snaps after the departure of Rashaad Penny (ankle).
100% attempts
58% route participationDeeJay Dallas took 2 out of 3 snaps on obvious passing downs.
— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland) October 9, 2022
Eno Benjamin (RB, ARI) - FAAB Bid: 6-10%
10% rostered
Arizona lost James Conner to a rib injury and Darrel Williams to a knee injury, which left Benjamin as the featured back against Philly. He wound up with 8-25-1 on the ground and three catches for 28 yards on four targets in the air.
The Cards have a gracious rushing matchup versus Seattle in Week 6, which makes Benjamin a viable flex if Conner or Williams is available. He becomes a top-20 RB on the week if neither of them can go.
Mike Boone (RB, DEN) - FAAB Bid: 4-6%
36% rostered
Boone was a bright spot in an ugly TNF affair that we will bury deep in our minds. While Melvin Gordon III had 54 yards rushing on 15 carries, Boone collected 38 yards on just seven carries. MGIII had 3-49-0 receiving while Boone matched it with 3-47-0.
Russell Wilson is dealing with a bum shoulder, which may deepen Denver’s reliance on the run next to their plus defense. We’ll see how Latavius Murray is worked in but Boone deserves more looks. Denver faces a Chargers team that has surrendered 100-yard rushing totals to JAX, HOU, and CLE in their last three games.
Jaylen Warren (RB, PIT) - FAAB Bid: 4-6%
8% rostered
Warren outsnapped Najee Harris in Week 5’s blowout loss to Buffalo. This was somewhat tied to the game script but also Harris only turned 11 rushes and four targets into 36 total yards. Compare that to Warren’s 63 yards on five carries and five targets.
Harris is barely averaging above three yards per carry (69 attempts, 222 yards) while Warren is averaging nearly five yards per tote (19 atts, 94 yds). Warren is showing more burst as Harris may still be affected by his foot injury. Pittsburgh’s schedule is rough but Kenny Pickett at least gives them some fight.
Jaylen Warren leads Najee Harris in ...
* @PFF Rush Grade
* PFF Elusive Rating
* @fboutsiders Rush DVOA
* PFF Receiving Grade
* FO Receiving DVOA— Jared Smola (@SmolaDS) October 10, 2022
James Cook (RB, BUF) - FAAB Bid: 2-4%
29% rostered
There’s some hand-wringing about Devin Singletary’s usage after Cook stepped in with 31 yards and a touchdown on four carries. That’s a small workload and people can cry about garbage time but the Bills are a powerhouse capable of burying opponents in any week.
Per PFF’s Nathan Jahnke, Singletary plays ~75% of offensive snaps when Buffalo is either tied or trailing versus ~50% when Buffalo is leading. This is not about Cook taking over, but he could be a desperate bye-week flex with their game scripts, and if Singletary got hurt then you have a key piece of Buffalo.
Joshua Kelley (RB, LAC) - FAAB Bid: 2-4%
1% rostered
Kelley shouldered 10 carries alongside two catches as the 1B to Austin Ekeler’s incredible 1A in a Week 5 win. Ekeler turned 20 touches into 199 yards and two scores, while Kelley’s 12 touches amounted to 82 yards and a TD of his own. The Chargers have wanted to save Ekeler from peak volume and just needed someone to prove worthy, which Kelley looks to have done.
Gus Edwards (RB, BAL) - FAAB Bid: 1-3%
14% rostered
This is another case of getting ahead of that "Player X was activated off of the IR" tweet that'll send casuals to their phones for the add. Baltimore remains one of the 10 run-heaviest teams in the NFL and Edwards could join J.K. Dobbins as backfield hammers next to Lamar Jackson in a high-scoring offense.
Deon Jackson (RB, IND) - FAAB Bid: 1-3%
1% rostered
With Jonathan Taylor out and Nyheim Hines leaving TNF early due to the concussion protocol, Jackson and Phillip Lindsay formed Indy's one-two RB punch against Denver. The Colts' offense struggled but Jackson showed power and speed with 62 yards on 13 carries (and 4-29-0 receiving). He had the edge on Lindsay and is worth a deep add in case Taylor and Hines are not ready for Week 6.
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Wide Receivers
Rondale Moore (WR, ARI) - FAAB Bid: 6-10%
18% rostered
Moore ascended to being a regular starter from the slot alongside Marquise Brown in Week 5, with 41 routes run for Moore against Brown’s 44. A.J. Green and Andre Baccellia were responsible for the other perimeter spot while Greg Dortch only played two snaps, so that was fun while it lasted.
Moore would catch seven passes for 68 yards and also had two carries (for -7 yards, oops) as the Cards clearly had some schemes for him. Arizona felt confident enough to move forward with Moore in heavier three-wide rotations to cut Maxx Williams last week and lean on 11 personnel. Invest, especially if their ground game injuries are significant.
Rondale Moore in his second game of 2022:
Average route depth -- 4.4 yards
Average depth of target -- 2.3 yardsWith AJ Green returning, Moore returned to the slot. 82% of his routes came from the slot in Week 5, up from 29% in Week 4.
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) October 10, 2022
Wan'Dale Robinson (WR, NYG) - FAAB Bid: 4-6%
6% rostered
Robinson missed another week with a knee injury but did squeeze in limited practices ahead of the trip to London. This hints at a potential return in Week 6 as Kadarius Toney deals with two hamstring injuries and Kenny Golladay also missed Week 5 with a knee issue.
Golladay hasn’t done anything to earn playing time even if healthy, so Robinson may step into the WR spotlight. Richie James, David Sills V, and Marcus Johnson do not house fantasy upside so let’s target the man with ceiling in Robinson. (And do stash Toney.)
Jameson Williams (WR, DET) - FAAB Bid: 4-6%
31% rostered
Just a friendly reminder to stash Williams if possible! There’s something comical about Williams, Josh Reynolds, and DJ Chark all being exactly 31% rostered on Yahoo as I write this. You can just see the future tilt over secondary points in Detroit coming. Don’t wait for optimistic news on Williams to rise out of Detroit throughout their bye week.
Khalil Shakir (WR, BUF) - FAAB Bid: 2-4%
2% rostered
Shakir stepped into the No. 3 receiver role with Isaiah McKenzie still unable to return from a concussion. Josh Allen and the Bills stomped all over the Steelers in a 38-3 rout filled with long passing touchdowns.
The rookie turned five targets into a 3-75-1 line, displaying the higher ceiling enjoyed by any BUF WR thanks to Mr. Allen. Monitor McKenzie’s health but Shakir needs to be rostered just in case any of the big three are ever unavailable.
Alec Pierce (WR, IND) - FAAB Bid: 2-4%
8% rostered
Pierce was Matt Ryan’s safety blanket in a horrid TNF affair against Denver, posting 8-81-0 on nine targets while clearly running ahead of Parris Campbell as the No. 2 WR. That role had more value on a night where the Colts were without Jonathan Taylor, though Indy had failed to make an impact with JT thus far anyway.
An early concussion hampered his momentum but he’s now topped 60 yards in three straight contests. If he can be an intermediate option for this late chapter of Ryan’s game then PPR rosters could surely utilize him. His floor goes up if Ashton Dulin’s foot injury proves serious, as this led to more consistent snaps for Pierce late on Thursday.
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Tight Ends
Taysom Hill (TE, NO) - FAAB Bid: 8-12%
32% rostered
The tight-end designation is a joke but this is the game we play. Hill gashed the Seattle defense with a whopping 112 rushing yards for three scores and added a 22-yard TD pass for fun.
The Saints needed his versatility on a day when their defense couldn’t contain Seattle, engaging in a relatively-rare shootout instead. Hill has parlayed 21 carries into 228 yards and five touchdowns, which is not bankable efficiency, but it may lead to steadier opportunities moving forward. They’d need him even more if Chris Olave’s concussion holds the rookie out of Week 6’s tilt against Cincinnati.
Taysom Hill is 1 of 3 players since 1950 with 3+ rush TD, 100+ rush yards and a pass TD in a single game.
He joins Ronnie Brown (2008) and LaDainian Tomlinson (2005).#Saints @Saints
— NFL Research (@NFLResearch) October 9, 2022
Hayden Hurst (TE, CIN) - FAAB Bid: 2-4%
30% rostered
Hurst went full revenge-game mode against Baltimore with season-highs in six catches and 53 yards with a TD. He surely benefited from Tee Higgins ghosting with the ankle injury but we’ve seen Hurst tally at least seven targets in all three of his healthy games in 2022. That’s a startable volume, even if Higgins returns for Week 6 at New Orleans.
Greg Dulcich (TE, DEN) - FAAB Bid: 0-2%
1% rostered
Fantasy teams scrambling for TE assistance should throw a dart at Dulcich with the expectation he’s activated for Week 6. He easily has the highest ceiling of the room over Eric Saubert and Albert Okwuegbunam, though Denver could easily settle for a maddening rotation. Hence, a cheap dart throw if you need it.
*Other cheap adds could be Tampa Bay's Cade Otton or Washington's John Bates.
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Defense/Special Teams
Cincinnati Bengals Defense (at NO) - FAAB Bid: 0-1%
28% rostered
It’s a tough week for cheap DST streamers as the bye weeks start to trickle in. That said, the CIN defense has quietly held all five opponents thus far to 20 or fewer points. They’ve only registered more than one sack in one of those five games, but we’re banking on the risk-taking Jameis Winston playing in Week 6.
He took 10 sacks between Weeks 1-2 and is turnover-prone, to say the least. The Saints have surrendered 13 turnovers in five games. Lean into this with Cincy and see where it takes you.
Chicago Bears Defense (vs WAS) - FAAB Bid: 0-1%
9% rostered
This game has a betting over/under of 38.5 on the total, the only one below 40 for Week 6, which highlights our cheap targets. Neither side is a heavy favorite, with some books offering it as a pick ‘em, so I’ll put the home team first. Washington has yielded a horrid 20 sacks alongside six interceptions through five games. Confidence appears low and now they’re scrambling to recover an offensive identity on the road.
Washington Commanders Defense (at CHI) - FAAB Bid: 0-1%
3% rostered
Or you bet on the WAS defense instead, which has multiple sacks in four of their five games so far. Chicago has nearly matched Washington’s ineptitude at pass protection, allowing 18 sacks, while the Commanders are coming off of their best pressure game yet with five sacks against TEN.
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