RADIO
This article continues our team outlook series where we will breakdown each NFL team from a fantasy football perspective. We will cover the major changes on each roster from this offseason and project what the team will do in the upcoming year.
I'm here to discuss my favorite team, the Dallas Cowboys. I promise I'll be objective. The Cowboys are always a point of contention and this year is no different. After being an incredibly efficient offense in 2016, the Cowboys are going to regress this year, but by how much?
What about the ripple effect from the Ezekiel Elliott suspension, assuming it's fully upheld? Let's get into the perpetual drama that is the Dallas Cowboys.
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Dallas Cowboys 2017 Fantasy Outlook
Offseason Moves
Notable Acquisitions: WR Ryan Switzer and TE Rico Gathers via draft
Notable Departures: OL Doug Free and Ronald Leary
Quarterback
Dak Prescott went from fourth-round rookie third stringer to starter in what felt like overnight last preseason. He performed so well in 2016 that he sent Tony Romo into retirement. Now he enters 2017 as the unquestioned starter and one of the leaders of this offense. I am all in on Prescott as a real life QB and quite bullish on him in fantasy.
Prescott checks in as the QB15 based on ADP. Assuming a healthy Andrew Luck, I'd rank Prescott as the QB8. He finished as the QB6 last year in total points and the QB10 in average points per game. He plays on one of the most prolific offenses in the league. He has an elite offensive line and an elite WR talent. The Cowboys played the easiest schedule in the league last year and Prescott still threw enough to finish as a top 10 fantasy QB. The Cowboys have one of, if not the most difficult schedule in the league this season. That's actually good for Prescott from a fantasy perspective as it projects more negative game script, thus forcing him to throw more. I would be shocked if his volume didn't increase. There just isn't any realistic way the Cowboys will be able to run as much as they did last season.
Prescott is firmly atop my "wait on a QB" board. If you're not selecting Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady in the third round, you can wait until the double digits to grab Prescott.
Running Backs
What a nightmare this has become. This was supposed to be the easy part. Ezekiel Elliott is really good. The offensive line is really good. Draft Zeke third overall and don't look back. We could've been done with this section already. But no. Elliott had to go and get himself suspended for six games. To further muddy the waters, between his appeal and potential challenge in court, we can't be certain how many games he will serve or when he will serve them (I'll go on record to virtually guarantee he is serving a suspension of some length at some point, though).
Assuming he misses the first six games, what do you do? I'm not taking him before round three and even that is pretty high for a guy you won't see in your lineup until week 8. In Zeke's absence, it should be Darren McFadden shouldering the load. It's a bit challenging to explain how this isn't that big of a deal for the Cowboys even though Elliott is clearly a much better player than McFadden. The reality is the impact of RBs on win percentage just isn't very high. The Cowboys will be fine with McFadden. Your fantasy team will suffer. McFadden will probably settle in around where DeAngelo Williams was going last year (fifth/sixth round). I am not a believer in the fact that you must take DMC if you drafted Elliott. If you draft Elliott, you must account for his suspension and properly plan with your picks - it doesn't have to be McFadden. But remember, McFadden was the RB13 by total points in 2015 and that was with Matt Cassel and friends at QB. He's an RB2 in Zeke's absence.
Wide Receivers
I'll start with the one that matter less. Terrance Williams is irrelevant. I have no idea how he's even still on this team. Brice Butler is better than him. Noah Brown might be better than him. Williams has no fantasy relevance.
Cole Beasley, on the other hand, does. Beasley is Prescott's favorite target - not Dez Bryant. Prescott loves the underneath throw and whenever Beasley is on the field, he sees the ball. Beasley led the league last year in targets per snap. In PPR leagues, I'll gladly make Beasley the last WR on my bench.
Now to the big dog - Dez Bryant. I have always loved Bryant the player. He has passion, dedication, and truly wants to win. I've always respected his attitude about his targets. He doesn't care...as long as the team is winning. But if the team is struggling, throw him the damn ball. Bryan is currently trending as the WR9. That's just really high for a guy that hasn't actually been elite in over two seasons now. We all know how high Bryant's ceiling can be, but Prescott has shown an unwillingness to force the ball to Bryant. He typically opts for the safer, underneath throws. When Prescott does uncork it deep, he is one of the better deep ball passers in the league. He just doesn't do it very often. I'm confident in Bryant to be better than he was last season, but after two straight years of injuries and underperformance, I am electing to pass in the second round.
Tight Ends
Jason Witten is clearly a shell of his former self, but he's still one of the smartest players in the league. He knows how to use his body to create space to catch the ball. He should provide a safe weekly floor, but his days of being a TE1 are over. Rico Gathers has almost unlimited potential as a monster of a human that really is too big to be covered. If he can hone his craft, he can be one of the best TEs in the league. But that's not happening in 2017. Witten is the only name to care about and he's probably going to be that guy you pickup in a bind and then drop the next week.
Kicker
Statistically, Dan Bailey is the second best kicker of all time, trailing only the immortal Justin Tucker in career field goal percentage by a mere 0.3%. The Cowboys will be in scoring position quite frequently and have always had a tendency to turn touchdowns into field goals. Obviously you're not reaching for a kicker, but Bailey should be one of the first three kickers off the board.
Defense/Special Teams
The defense is not as bad as people think. The pass rush is a problem, but rookie Taco Charlton should make an immediate impact and a month in, the team will get back David Irving and DeMarcus Lawrence to bolster the defense. Byron Jones is one of the best safeties in the league and Anthony Brown has emerged into quite the competent corner. The Cowboys defended the run impeccably last season as well. This is not a defense to target in drafts, but one that you can certainly stream in the right matchups in season.
