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Heading into the season, Fantasy Football Expert Frankie Soler will take an early look into each NFL team’s fantasy potential in 2015, keying into some depth chart changes and battles for starting jobs. In our second part of the series we look at the New Orleans Saints. All previous Team Previews can be found here.
The New Orleans Saints have been one of the more dependable teams in fantasy production over the course of the last half-dozen years. Despite years of reliability, this might be the year to reassess how we approach the New Orleans offense. Changes in personnel and an apparent shift in offensive philosophy hint at a vastly different Saints team than we’re used to.
Offseason Acquisitions: RB C.J. Spiller, C Max Unger
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No Longer on the Roster: TE Jimmy Graham, RB Pierre Thomas, WR Kenny Stills, WR Robert Meachem
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Quarterback
The one constant through all the turnover among players in New Orleans has been quarterback Drew Brees. Entering his 10th season in New Orleans, Brees looks to rebound from a rare fantasy season in which he finished outside the top five at his position but there lies a multi-layered problem with the idea of Brees bouncing back to the fantasy form we’re used to. The first obvious part is that he’s missing his favorite weapon: tight end Jimmy Graham. The Saints traded Graham to the Seattle Seahawks in a blockbuster move that netted them center Max Unger. The loss of Graham is a huge blow to a Saints offense that’s relied on him so heavily in the past, especially in the redzone. Graham was coming off of his fourth consecutive season of at least 85 receptions and hasn't had a season with less than 9 touchdowns. To say the team depended on him would be a massive understatement. That isn’t the sort of production you can replace overnight or with a rookie, given how talented Graham is. That alone will be a big blow to Drew Brees’ value.
The Saints then traded wide receiver Kenny Stills to the Dolphins, removing yet another pass catcher from the team without replacing him. Stills was by no means the caliber of superstar as Jimmy Graham but he was still a weapon Brees liked to utilize. Robert Meachem was the last little blow to the offense once the team decided not to re-sign him. That leaves Brees with Brandin Cooks and an aging Marques Colston as his two primary targets. We’ve seen this team put up big numbers by spreading the ball around with a variety of players, some of which most people couldn’t even remember the names of. The difference here is that the team is actively and clearly revamping their offense entirely. They’ve traded away two key players without immediate replacements and brought in players who contradict the expected pass-happy offense we’re used to. Granted, quarterbacks five through twelve all have their warts but if you’re telling me I have to select Drew Brees in the fifth or sixth round as opposed to waiting a few more to get Cam Newton, I’m just not going to do it. The ranking of Brees as a top five or even six QB is more about name recognition than it is performance. He’s lost too many weapons and the players coming in suggest a change in offensive philosophy we’ll touch upon in our running back section.
Wide Receivers
Brandin Cooks and Marques Colston are the two remaining survivors of the offensive transformation in New Orleans. Cooks played in 10 games before suffering a season ending thumb injury and over the course of those 10 games, Cooks reeled in 53 receptions for 550 yards. The touchdowns weren’t that high with just three but his usage indicated the team depended on him. With Graham and Stills gone, Cooks is all but guaranteed to be the number one target for the Saints. Barring another injury, Cooks should be a lock for a WR2 in fantasy with WR1 upside. That leaves Marques Colston as the number two receiver on the team. In the past, the second receiver on the Saints still held relevant fantasy value but Colston is another year older and isn’t returning to the same Saints offense we’re used to. I suppose Colston could turn into a decent enough flex play but I would much rather use a roster spot on someone that has a chance to become much more than that. In short, Colston’s upside is gone. At last that leaves us with the potential shift to a more run-based offense…
Running Backs
The Saints signed Mark Ingram to a four-year $16 million deal in March of this year which would indicate the team feels strongly about him being able to repeat his 2014 performance. Ingram has battled several injuries in the past and has had to deal with other Saints running backs cutting into his workload. With Pierre Thomas gone and a fresh new contract, Ingram should slide right into the primary back position without any roadblocks…or so we thought. Not only did the Saints re-up Ingram but they also brought in running back C.J. Spiller. Spiller has had his own injury issues but possesses tremendous playmaking ability. He too has had to deal with other backs, particularly Fred Jackson, eating into his workload. So now the question is how does this backfield divide the workload among the two? This isn’t going to be an open competition nor will it be a traditional running back by committee. Instead, we’re looking at a Saints team that can utilize multiple backs in different ways. Expect Mark Ingram to be the guy rushing between the tackles and to lead the team in rushing attempts. That leaves Spiller to be the pass-catching back and the guy they want to get the ball to in space, where he's most dangerous. Think of it as Spiller stepping into the old Darren Sproles role.. Ingram is your more traditional, standard style option where as Spiller is your pass-catching, point-per-reception running back. That’s how their values should shake out.
As mentioned previously, the team received center Max Unger from the Seahawks in exchange for Jimmy Graham. Unger is a run-blocking center, which only hints toward the notion that the Saints will be going more run-heavy in 2015. Between Ingram, Spiller, Unger, and the loss of Graham and Stills, this team will be utilizing more balanced play calling than we’re used to. The Saints have been a team able to utilize multiple running backs effectively, often netting us two useful fantasy RBs in the process. That’s what this new-look Saints team should be. Ingram and Spiller could both be useful, especially in PPR leagues where Spiller’s value skyrockets. Granted, a PPR league would also hurt Ingram but both guys can still produce. Is there a chance Spiller completely outplays Ingram and takes over as the primary back? Absolutely. Would I bet on it? Definitely not. Spiller has had the opportunity to prove he can handle a workload all by himself in Buffalo but was often outplayed by Fred Jackson, particularly between the tackles and near the goal line. His injury history certainly doesn’t help either. Barring one of the biggest smokescreens in offseason history, the ground game will be the biggest beneficiary of all of these changes we’ve seen in New Orleans.
Rookies and Tight Ends
The Saints went fairly defense-heavy in the draft so there isn’t anyone worth noting as far as rookies are concerned. There’s been some rumblings of the Saints bringing in tight end Jermaine Gresham which tells me two things: First, the Saints aren’t happy or confident in any TE currently on the roster. Second, the starting tight end might not even be on the team yet. The TE situation in New Orleans is one we’re just going to have to wait and see on.
The changes in personnel are a clear indication that we’re going to see a different type of offense in New Orleans this year. The team essentially traded in Jimmy Graham and Kenny Stills, two reliable pass-catchers for two run-game based players in Max Unger and C.J. Spiller. That’s not to say the offense will be worse for fantasy purposes it just means we have to shift expectations. The days of Drew Brees’s superstar QB status are over but we should end up with two viable running backs between Ingram and Spiller and one clear-cut wide receiver in Brandin Cooks.
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