RADIO
Undervalued First Base Draft Targets
You don’t win a fantasy baseball league in the first round. The principles of value based drafting teach us that while it's important not to whiff on your first round pick, a first rounder can nearly never guarantee winning a league. The actual key, however, is finding the unheralded players in the later rounds of the draft that provide value exceptionally higher than their draft day cost. Or in other words: sleepers.
First base is an odd position to look for sleepers; most first baseman are long time veterans who have been around the league. Most major league teams clog their first base positions with plodding vets with defensive struggles in an effort to keep their bats in the lineup.
If you miss out on the top crop of first baseman, it becomes increasingly important to hit on your sleepers as not to be stuck with the James Loney's of the world. Here are my top 5 first base sleepers for 2015:
1. Chris Davis - 1B/3B/DH, BAL (ADP: 82)
Chris Davis burned you last year; he burned everyone last year. At his 82 average draft position, he is not a sleeper in the traditional sense. For most, sleepers are considered to be at least pick 100 or later, however Davis is an exception to the rule. Crush seems to be the only first baseman going outside the top five rounds that has the potential to finish as a top five first baseman.
Even in a down year in 2014, Davis was able to churn out 24 home runs and 72 runs batted in. While it seems unfair to expect him to ever approach the 53 home runs he hit in 2013, offseason adjustments along with a new adderall prescription could help him approach 30 again. If he can maintain his solid line drive percentage and get a little luckier on balls in play in 2015, he can maintain a .230 to .250 batting average. Quite frankly, 30 HR with decent R, RBI, and an AVG that won’t kill you isn’t easy to come by these days.
2. Adam LaRoche - 1B/DH, CHW (ADP: 149)
It seems like LaRoche is “Mr. Reliable” every season yet he always comes into the draft as a player nobody wants. He does the little things that no one looks at. For those playing in OBP leagues, LaRoche had the third most walks amongst qualified hitters at 82 BB. This answers Billy Beane’s infamous “But can he get on base?” question.
Additionally, LaRoche touts decent power, as he perennially sits between 20 and 30 HR and finished 10th amongst qualifiers in isolated power, ISO. Firmly planted in the middle of an upgraded Sox lineup that boasts Jose Abreu, Alexei Ramriez, Adam Eaton, and Melky Cabrera near the top suggest smooth sailing for LaRoche’s RBI potential. If LaRoche is available in a draft near his current 149 ADP, a quick trigger finger should be employed.
3. Lucas Duda - 1B/OF, NYM (ADP: 152)
Eleven major league players hit 30 HR last year and Lucas Duda was one of them. Like the aforementioned Adam LaRoche, Duda knows how to take a walk; Duda strolled to first base at an 11.6% BB rate last season. Furthermore, he has favorable platoon splits. He absolutely mashes right handed pitching. In 2014, he hit .273 with 28 HR against right handed pitching.
It would be incredibly feasible to employ Duda as one’s primary first baseman against right handed pitching while keeping a lower end secondary option to slot in while he faces left handed starters.
4. Brandon Moss - 1B/OF, CLE/DH (ADP: 165)
It’s almost embarrassing to take Brandon Moss as your primary first baseman in a league, but he will almost assuredly outproduce his draft position. Last year, he suffered from a deflated HR/FB% which fell to 14.8% after coming in at 18.8% and 25.9% the previous two seasons. Moss hits nearly half his balls into the air, which means he has a very high floor for the number of home runs he will hit.
It is conceivable that Moss could take a step in the right direction in 2015 as he has shown the power potential in the past. He could easily reach the 30 HR milestone and quite frankly, there aren’t many potential 30 HR guys left on the board at his current 165 ADP. Moss is a worthwhile gamble at that price for teams hurting in the power department.
5. Steve Pearce - 1B/OF/DH, BAL (ADP: 212)
Pearce played over his head last year. Those who reaped the benefits in 2014 might be targeting him as a trendy sleeper in 2014 expecting an upside guy with multiple position eligibility. However, his 17.5% HR/FB% was significantly higher than his career average or his yearly postings at any level of professional ball. Pearce’s 21 HR in only 383 plate appearances spuriously suggests that he could potentially hit far more with a full season’s workload.
However, as that HR/FB% drops, his home run total should fall within the 20 to 23 HR for a full season’s work. Still, 23 HR with an average that should be nearly 30 to 40 points higher than anyone else on this list is valuable in deeper rotisserie leagues. Currently sitting outside the top 200 in ADP, Pearce is a formidable first baseman for those in deeper leagues.
