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Justin Carter breaks down the NCAA Women's Tournament bracket providing his March Madness picks and sleepers. Read his predictions for the 2024 Final Four.
The NCAA Women's Basketball Tournament is finally upon us, which means it's time to get your brackets ready. We've got some great pieces up on the site about preparing your bracket for the men's side, so today I want to go in-depth on the women's tournament.
There's this idea that's been tossed around for years that the women's tournament is too predictable, and while it's true that we see the top seeds upset less, that doesn't mean there's not a lot of good basketball being played and a lot of chances to leverage your knowledge in the games that don't involve the number one seeds. It's also worth noting that 2012, 2015, and 2018 were the only times this century where all four top seeds made the Final Four, so things aren't nearly as predictable as you might think.
In this article, I'll be providing an in-depth overview of the 2024 field. I'll break down the favorites, look at some of the sleeper teams who could make an impact, and offer some thoughts on the bracket itself and who I'm picking in some of the games. Once you're done here, be sure to also check out the rest of our NCAA Tournament articles and analysis including previews, predictions, sleepers, busts, and guides on how to fill out your brackets. Good luck RotoBallers! Hopefully, more than a few of you win your office pool!
The Women's NCAA Tournament Favorites
Since 2010, just eight teams have made the Final Four without being a one or a two-seed, and only one of those eight won the championship. In fact, in tournament history, only three teams -- North Carolina in 1994, Tennessee in 1997, and LSU last season -- have won the tournament without being a one or two-seed. Essentially, when filling out your bracket, you want one of these eight teams to be your champion, and you probably would be safest having at least three of them in your Final Four, if not having all four come from this group. Don't let LSU's title last year change the way you fill your bracket out too much -- that Tigers team probably should have been a two-seed, but they were dinged for a really bad non-conference strength of schedule.
Here's a link to the official bracket.
South Carolina (1 seed)
The Gamecocks are the clear favorites this March. The team enters the tournament with a 32-0 record on the season and leads Division I in defensive rating and net rating while ranking third in offensive rating. The team doesn't shoot many threes, but they sure hit them when they do, posting the third-best three-point percentage in the country. There's just not really any holes here. The team had a couple of hiccups lately, just barely scraping by Tennesse because of a Kamilla Cardoso buzzer-beater, but it's hard to poke holes in their resume when they're undefeated and their opponent's average win percentage is 29th in the country. It's not like the Gamecocks have beaten up on cupcakes.
Iowa (1 seed)
Two words: Caitlin Clark. The Iowa senior has taken over the nation this year, with women's basketball viewership and attendance records broken left and right when the Hawkeyes were playing. Clark, the all-time leading scorer in NCAA basketball, is just missing one thing: a ring. Can she get it this year? Iowa has a lot of holes on the defensive side, where the program ranks 212th in defensive rating, but its absurd offense makes up for that. The team's 119.2 offensive rating leads the nation and it ranks ninth in net rating despite the poor defensive numbers. If defense wins championships, Iowa's in trouble, but Clark's ability to put up 35 points like it's nothing can save the Hawkeyes. One other issue for Iowa? They're in the toughest of the four regions.
Caitlin Clark preparing for a bracket with LSU, Colorado, Kansas State, Louisville, Creighton and Drake. pic.twitter.com/4mQx8m0mmS
— Ivan Bologna (@PV_GIA) March 18, 2024
USC (1 seed)
Here's a hot take: USC freshman JuJu Watkins might one day be the best player from this tournament. Sure, Clark and Brink are ahead of her now, but the young phenom has made a huge impact in her first season. She's averaging 27.0 points per game and has helped this Trojans team reach new heights. The team enters the tournament having won 12 of its past 13 games. I'm not sure a team seeded this high can really be a sleeper pick, but USC is peaking at a really good time and has a relatively easy path to the Final Four.
Texas (1 seed)
After Rori Harmon went down with a season-ending injury, you'd be forgiven if you wrote off Texas. I mean, heck—I cashed out a bet I had on a Texas championship right when I heard the Harmon news because I figured taking a small loss on the cash out was better than losing it all. Then freshman Madison Booker blossomed into one of the best guards in the country and Texas won 30 games for the first time since 2016. Head coach Vic Schaefer always coaches great defensive teams and this Horns squad is no exception, as they have the 11th-best defensive rating in the country. This is an elite team on both sides of the ball that really only has one weakness, which is that they have the nation's lowest three-point rate. They hit them at the 18th-best mark in the country, but is that sustainable if they get into a situation where they're forced to shoot?
Stanford (2 seed)
The Cardinal are looking to bounce back after dropping the Pac-12 title game to USC. That was the second time this season that Stanford has lost to USC; it's only lost three other games all season. The Cardinal have the seventh-best net rating in the country and have been efficient on offense, shooting 46.3% from the floor. Senior Cameron Brink is averaging 17.8 points and 11.9 rebounds per contest and missed the team's loss to Arizona. I do worry about the team's defense though, and losing twice to another top team isn't a great sign. I likely won't have Stanford at the top of any of my brackets.
Notre Dame (2 seed)
The Irish getting a two-seed is a little surprising. Before the ACC Tournament, the team was probably looking like a three or four-seed. Mark Schindler at The Athletic consistently had the Irish as a three but wins over Louisville, Virginia Tech, and NC State pushed the team up a line. Freshman Hannah Hidalgo is one of the nation's most exciting players, averaging 23.3 points, 6.4 rebounds, 5.5 assists, and 4.6 steals per game. This is a well-rounded team that can make some noise in this tournament, though being in South Carolina's region caps their upside.
Juju Watkins helped her team get a 1 seed.
Madison Booker helped her team get a 1 seed.
Hannah Hidalgo helped her team get a 2 seed.
These freshman are so damn special man!— Somewhere between COZY and ALIEN SUPERSTAR! (@yanab0015) March 18, 2024
UCLA (2 seed)
UCLA is the two-seed in the toughest region, with Iowa as the one and LSU as the three, and that makes it really tough to project them to make it beyond the Sweet 16 or Elite 8. Still, this is a really good Bruins team, led by former top overall recruit Lauren Betts and her 14.7 points, 9.0 rebounds, and 2.0 blocks per game. UCLA ranks 15th in net rating.
Ohio State (2 seed)
The Buckeyes have a lot of commonalities with conference foe Iowa. Both teams are good offensively, struggle defensively, and are led by strong guard play. For OSU, that's Jacy Sheldon, who is averaging 18.1 points and 3.8 assists per contest. Cotie McMahon has been a star as well, putting up 14.3 points and pulling down 6.5 rebounds each night. This region is winnable, so Ohio State to the Final Four could be a really good pick.
Women's March Madness Sleeper Teams
Teams ranked third or lower. A third seed might not sound like a Cinderella, but the nature of the women's tournament is that the top two seeds are dominant early in the tournament, so picking a three seed or below to keep advancing is bucking some of the trends. Let's look at a few of the teams who have a chance of making noise, even if they're unlikely to win the whole thing.
LSU (3 seed)
Last year, LSU won the title as a three-seed. This year, LSU is...a three-seed again! The Tigers have already lost three more games than they did last season so this seeding makes more sense than last year's seeding. LSU is in a tough region with Iowa and UCLA, but you can never count a Kim Mulkey-coached team out in March. The addition of Aneesah Morrow gives this team an elite frontcourt between her and Angel Reese, but the guard play just isn't as good as last year. LSU could win another title, but they have a gauntlet to get there.
UConn (3 seed)
UConn is second in the NET, ahead of every two seed and every top seed except for South Carolina. The Huskies lost five games, but those were to NC State, UCLA, Texas, Notre Dame, and South Carolina. Four of those are one or two seeds. It's really tough to know what to think about this team, because they did lose to the strongest teams they played, and they lost all five by double figures.
On the other hand, the team was third in the country in net rating at +30.9. They were 21-0 in a talented Big East, with Paige Bueckers scoring 22.8 points per game on 56.4% shooting in conference play. UConn feels like a boom-or-bust team here. I won't have them as my champion in my bracket, but I'm not against throwing a few bucks down on a UConn title bet.
Utah (5 seed)
Stars matter in March and the Utes have a really good star. Alissa Pili averaged 20.9 points and 6.7 rebounds per game for Utah this season, with Utah posting a +22.7 net rating in the 854 minutes she was on the floor. Utah lost 10 games this season, but it had wins over UCLA and USC, with the USC win coming on the road. A Sweet 16 trip is definitely in the cards, as the team plays South Dakota State in the first round and the winner of Gonzaga/UC Irvine in the second round. And hey—a potential Sweet 16 game against Texas is winnable.
Iowa State (7 seed)
Audi Crooks for the lead!!
My god, she is bordering on unstoppable pic.twitter.com/7LSibOnNMj
— Mark Schindler (@MG_Schindler) March 9, 2024
The Cyclones made it all the way to the Big 12 title game, where they lost to Texas. This is a really young team, led by a pair of freshmen in Audi Crooks and Addy Brown. Crooks might be on her way to being one of the most dominant bigs we've seen in a while, as she averaged 18.9 points on 58.4% shooting this season. She isn't quite at the level you want on defense, but she can take over a game when she gets the ball down low. Iowa State is in the same region as Utah, which is a region primed for some upsets.
So, Who Should We Pick?
Like I said above, three of your four Final Four teams should be one or two seeds, because that's traditionally been about how things have looked.
Here are my picks to make the Final Four: South Carolina, Texas, LSU, and Ohio State.
And when picking your Final Four, let's not forget that the last time two teams that weren't a one or two seed even made the Final Four was 2016, when four-seed Syracuse and seven-seed Washington got there, facing each other in one semifinal that Syracuse won. And what happened next? UConn beat them 82-51 in the final.
The last champion to win without being a top-two seed was LSU last year, but it'd been a while before that. So yeah, pick a one or two seed to win it all. My personal pick is South Carolina. I think if Iowa can get there, they can make a game of it, but the Hawkeyes have a nightmare region to get through,
