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Michael Florio takes a deeper dive into what went wrong for second-year tight end Kyle Pitts in 2022 fantasy football. Will he be able to rebound in 2023?
Let me start out by apologizing. There was no one higher on Kyle Pitts heading into last year than I was. “Kyle Pitts in the third round no matter what!” was something that I tweeted out far too often last summer. In fairness, I fully believed it and drafted him there quite often myself. But I didn’t just stop there. I kept advocating for him throughout the season. Hell, I ripped my shirt off to unveil a Pitts shirt on national TV!
There is no denying that things went terribly wrong from the moment the season started until it ended after an injury due to Pitts. But here’s the thing – almost none of it was his fault. I mean, unless he refused to play for Atlanta when they drafted him a couple of years ago, there was not much he could have done as he was put into a terrible position last season. It's more on me for failing to recognize that than it is on Pitts.
And here is the other thing. It's not like I will not be drafting and advocating for Pitts again next season. This will likely not be the only Pitts article I write before next season. But before we even start to look ahead, we need to look back and figure out what went wrong.
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What Went Wrong for Kyle Pitts in 2022 Fantasy Football?
When I say it was not Pitts' fault for his down season, I am sure many of you rolled your eyes or something of the sort. And I know it’s a wild thing to say, but trust me, the combination of his usage and the QB play around him will make you feel sorry for the guy!
Last season, Pitts saw 58 targets before he suffered a season-ending injury. Of those 58 targets, 33 were deemed uncatchable according to PFF – that is 59 percent of his targets. It was also the highest amount of any player with at least 50 targets. Yes, that is terrible. That means that more of his targets were uncatchable than catchable. I don’t care if he was Jerry Rice, there was just no catching nearly three-fifths of his targets.
That is what not being his fault looks like. In total, 26 percent of Marcus Mariota’s passes were uncatchable, the second-highest rate in the NFL behind only Zach Wilson. The thinking that Mariota, who lifted Delanie Walker to be a top five tight end three times with the Titans, would translate to Atlanta, and Pitts was clearly wrong. That is on me, not on Pitts.
Pitts was actually useful when the passes thrown his way were actually catchable – but more on that later. There is still plenty more that went wrong for Pitts. Like for instance, the way he was used. Pitts was used primarily as a downfield weapon. Which would normally be fine as he is the best vertical tight end in the game and I will make the argument that is a good thing a little later.
And it would have been a good thing with another quarterback. But last year through Week 11, Pitts had already seen 14 targets of 20-plus air yards. He was leading the position in air yards and was second in air yards per target. His 14 targets of 20-plus air yards not only led the position at that time, but he was the only tight end in the double digits.
But he did not lead the position in catches or yards or anything. Just targets on those passes. That is because Mariota completed a league-low 22.2 percent of his deep passes. He completed just one to Pitts. Again, it was just awful. I do not want to beat up on Mariota too much but no matter which way you slice it, it was bad quarterback play and it held Pitts and this offense back.
This brings me to my beef with Arthur Smith. He had a better view of Mariota, a QB that he had already benched in the past, than anyone, and for the majority of the season, he chose to stick with him. Desmond Ridder played pretty well for a rookie when he started and Smith seemed to receive credit for it. The entire time I was wondering why he didn’t make that decision sooner, especially since it was a rebuilding year for the Falcons.
Additionally, it was the way Smith used Pitts. First, using him primarily as a vertical weapon when it was clear your QB could not get him the ball downfield. I am not saying you need to never take your shots, but mix in more underneath targets and just find ways to actually get the ball into the hands of your playmaker.
Pitts last year had run just 192 routes through Week 11, which was 22nd at the position. He was seventh with 59 targets. I understand the Falcons deployed a run-first attack so there naturally weren’t going to be as many opportunities for routes and targets as with other offenses. But there were times when Pitts would be the blocking tight end for a secondary one to run the route and get the target. It is stuff like that which can be infuriating.
Not only did Pitts have the worst QB play to deal with, but he was being put in a position where succeeding would have been very tough. He was given limited opportunities and the ones he was given were largely uncatchable or downfield, which are naturally low-percentage plays regardless of who is throwing them.
Pitts does not get a complete pass for the down 2022 season, but as you can see, there was plenty that went wrong around him that was largely out of his control!
What Positives Can We Take from Pitts' 2022 Fantasy Football Season?
Pitts was actually a playmaker the few times a catchable target would go his way. Last season, he caught 85 percent of the targets that were deemed catchable. Plus, he saw more air yards than any tight end while he was healthy. His 777 air yards through Week 11 not only led the position – but he was one of just two tight ends with over 700 and three with over 550. The others were Mark Andrews and Travis Kelce. While that was a negative last season because of who was throwing him the ball, it is hard to imagine Ridder or whoever is the QB for the Falcons performing at a league-worst rate.
Last season, Ridder had the same completion percentage on deep passes as Mariota, which is … not great. He only attempted nine of those passes and had a much better passer rating with better metrics. The hope is that he can improve as he ages and gets more experience.
Pitts was also lining up all over the field as we wanted him to. Last season, he lined up just 43 percent of his snaps like a traditional tight end. He was in the slot on 34 percent and out wide like a receiver for 22 percent. Pitts has the rare ability to be able to win from all three spots and if the Falcons can just get the ball in his vicinity so he can use his large catch radius, he could easily have a bounce-back campaign.
And that is the biggest thing. If you liked Pitts coming into 2022, you should likely like him again in 2023. I know insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. But Pitts is still the elite prospect and rookie that we all loved. This is from my Pitts article last season:
"Pitts was the first rookie tight end to finish a season with 60-plus catches and over 1,000 receiving yards. He finished with the second-most receiving yards by a rookie tight end, trailing only Mike Ditka, and he scored the fourth-most fantasy points ever by a rookie tight end. He is one of just two rookie tight ends since 1967 to top 900 yards, let alone 1,000. He scored the most fantasy points by any rookie tight end since 1989."
All of that is still true for Pitts. Plus, he has seen a bunch of air yards and has been lining up all over the field in each of his NFL seasons. A switch in QB and mixing in some shorter targets could only be a good thing for Pitts. Additionally, touchdown regression is bound to set in as Pitts is far too talented and large to only have three touchdowns in two seasons. He could top that number in a game or two next year if given the opportunity to do so.
And the best part? Pitts is sure to go at a discount next season. In 2022, he was going consistently as a top-three tight end, often in the third round or sooner. When a player that early has a season like Pitts just had people feel burned. It doesn’t matter to some who is to blame. To them, Pitts let them down and they cannot yet forgive him.
To others, they were lucky to avoid him last year and likely not trying to draft him at a premium this season. How much of a discount is yet to be determined. I would imagine that Pitts goes in the sixth round or later in drafts. Maybe he creeps into the fifth if there's more hype, but I doubt he would go higher than that. All of the potential he brought last year, he still brings, but this time you do not have to pay full price to get it. That is exactly what I call a buying opportunity.
Make sure to follow Michael on Twitter, @MichaelFFlorio.
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