Week 13 Outliers Analysis - We Must Overreact!

December 8, 2020

Week 13 of the 2020 NFL season brought unexpected fantasy football surprises and busts. Mike Riggall analyzes overreactions to Baker Mayfield, Cam Akers, Cole Kmet and more.

Week 13 was pretty random as far as quarterbacks went, with Derek Carr, Baker Mayfield, Ryan Tannehill, Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff finishing in the top-six. Patrick Mahomes only scored 19.32 fantasy points but his day could have been much bigger had Tyreek Hill's touchdown been properly called by the officials and counted. Darren Waller had one of the best performances by a tight end in NFL history in Week 13, gaining 200 yards and scoring twice. Travis Kelce, Mike Gesicki, Dan Arnold and T.J. Hockenson rounded out the top-five at tight end.

Corey Davis continued his breakout campaign in Week 13 as the Titans found themselves down by 35 points to the Browns and needed to throw in an attempt to battle back. Davante Adams and Justin Jefferson were some of the best performers this week, but other than that there were some very unfamiliar names inside the top-15, including Marvin Jones, Keke Coutee, Rashard Higgins and Donovan Peoples-Jones.

David Montgomery took advantage of a great matchup against a depleted Lions Defense in Week 13 and finished as the No. 1 running back in fantasy football. Aaron Jones had a quiet day until he popped off a 70-yard touchdown run which landed him inside the top-five and Alvin Kamara finally had a decent game with Taysom Hill at quarterback, finishing with 17.7 fantasy points, proving once again why you shouldn't bench your studs. Now that Week 13 is behind us, let's take a look at some of these unexpected performances and evaluate whether these guys will continue to produce moving forward.

Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders

Week 13 Stats: 28-of-47 passing, 381 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT, 2 carries, 5 yards, 1 TD

The Raiders trailed the Jets for most of the game and as a result, Derek Carr threw the ball a season-high 47 times. Carr had both an ideal matchup and game-script working in his favor this week which led to a monster game.

Bottom Line: This was the second time Carr had more than 40 pass attempts this season and it was just his third 300-yard passing day. Carr is certainly capable of taking advantage of a good matchup, but he's hard to trust. If Josh Jacobs continues to miss time it could lead to the Raiders leaning more on Carr and the passing game.

Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns

Week 13 Stats: 25-of-33 passing, 334 yards, 4 TD, 4 carries, 5 yards, 1 target, 1 catch, 6 yards

Baker Mayfield threw the ball 33 times in Week 13, which was just the fourth time all season that he's attempted 30-or-more passes. The Titans Defense was no match for the Browns offense and Mayfield simply carved it up, with the biggest play coming on a 75-yard touchdown to Donovan Peoples-Jones.

Bottom Line: Mayfield doesn't put the ball in the air enough to be relevant for fantasy purposes on a consistent basis. The Browns play against the Ravens in Week 14 who Mayfield struggled against in Week 1, which means the Oklahoma product isn't likely to repeat this performance next week.

Keke Coutee, Houston Texans

Week 13 Stats: 9 targets, 8 catches, 141 yards

Randall Cobb landed on injured-reserve ahead of Week 12 and it looks like Keke Coutee has firmly taken over his role, playing a season-high 78.7% of the Texans offensive snaps in Week 13. DeForest Buckner returned to the lineup for the Colts this week and as a result the Texans had a difficult time running the ball which led to 38 pass attempts by Deshaun Watson.

Bottom Line: The Texans play the Bears in Week 14 who are fairly tough against wide receivers on the perimeter. Coutee may be viable again next week as he will likely have the best matchup in the Texans passing game against Buster Skrine who can be beaten.

T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis Colts

Week 13 Stats: 11 targets, 8 catches, 110 yards, 1 TD

T.Y. Hilton has scored in each of the Colts last two games but he's still only had three games in 2020 with nine-or-more targets. Week 13 was the first time Hilton saw more than six targets since October 11th. Hilton looked good out there and it looks like he's finally developing some chemistry with Philip Rivers which is good, but he's still going to be hard to trust unless the matchup is right.

Bottom Line: The Colts play against the Raiders in Week 14 who have struggled against the pass so he's a viable option if you need him.

Donovan Peoples-Jones, Cleveland Browns

Week 13 Stats: 3 targets, 2 catches, 92 yards, 1 TD

Donovan Peoples-Jones played 56.9% of the Browns offensive snaps in Week 13 which was the first time he played more than half of the snaps since Week 7 against the Bengals. The rookie out of Michigan did almost all of his damage on one play where he got completely behind the Titans coverage for a 75-yard touchdown.

Bottom Line: Jarvis Landry and Rashard Higgins played their normal compliment of snaps which leads me to believe that Peoples-Jones may have seen more playing time against the Titans due to the game plan rather than promotion. Peoples-Jones is a player you want to roster in dynasty leagues, but he doesn't play enough on a consistent basis and the Browns simply don't throw the ball enough for him to be counted on in re-draft leagues.

Chad Hansen, Houston Texans

Week 13 Stats: 7 targets, 5 catches, 101 yards

Chad Hansen played 96.7% of the Texans offensive snaps in Week 13 compared to 78.7% for Keke Coutee. It appears that Chad Hansen played the snaps vacated by Will Fuller, not Isaiah Coulter.

Bottom Line: Even if Chad Hansen plays a large percentage of the Texans snaps in Week 14, he has a difficult matchup against the Bears secondary which has given up the second-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers on the season.

Ty Johnson, N.Y. Jets

Week 13 Stats: 22 carries, 104 yards, 1 TD, 2 targets, 2 catches, 13 yards

Frank Gore was forced from the game in Week 13 with a concussion which gave an opportunity to Ty Johnson who stepped in and played 62.9% of the Jets offensive snaps. The second-year running back out of Maryland ran well and looked fresh but the Raiders aren't very good against the run, so things set up well for him to have success.

Bottom Line: If Frank Gore misses Week 14, Johnson will likely get the start against a Seahawks Defense that's extremely stingy against the run. Even if Johnson gets the start, the matchup isn't great so it will be difficult for him to get it done.

Cam Akers, L.A. Rams

Week 13 Stats: 21 carries, 72 yards, 1 TD, 1 target, 1 catch, 22 yards

Darrell Henderson was injured and missed part of the Rams Week 13 matchup against the Cardinals. As a result Cam Akers played a season-high 62.7% of the Rams offensive snaps. This was the first time in Akers played more than 32% of the snaps and he likely did enough to unseat Darrell Henderson as the lead-ball carrier for the Rams.

Bottom Line: You should feel comfortable using Cam Akers in your starting lineups from this moment forward. Akers did pop up on the injury report on Monday, so monitor that situation.

Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears

Week 13 Stats: 7 targets, 5 catches, 37 yards, 1 TD

Cole Kmet played 78.3% of the Bears offensive snaps in Week 13 and he's actually played at least 70% since Week 10. Since Week 10, Jimmy Graham has only played 50% of the Bears offensive snaps one time.

Bottom Line: There has been a changing of the guard in Chicago, and moving forward Cole Kmet is the Bears tight end you want on your fantasy roster.

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