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Hello everybody, and welcome to our PrizePicks NFL DFS prop picks for Week 1 - Sunday Main Slate! The 2023 NFL season is finally underway, and that means our friends over at PrizePicks have a TON of great DFS plays we can look to take advantage of.
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PrizePicks Over/Under DFS Props Contests
PrizePicks is a great DFS picks site where you can choose to select plays in terms of fantasy points or single stats. The goal is to build a 2-player, 3-player, 4-player, or 5-player entry and then select whether or not you want to play for the power play or the flex play.
On the power play, you will need to be correct on each of your selections to win, and on the flex play, you will have a little more wiggle room for a chance to win some money back.
Before diving into some solid fantasy score totals this week, we must first cover the PrizePicks scoring format. The format is PPR, which stands for "point per reception", meaning every reception is worth one point.
Rushing and receiving touchdowns are worth six points, and passing touchdowns are worth four points. Each rushing or receiving yard is worth .1, meaning every 10 yards of either is worth one point. Quarterback passing yards are worth .04, which means every 25 passing yards are worth one point.
If you ever have questions, you can always click the "scoring chart" option above the player selections for each contest. Now, let's get to some solid fantasy score props for this week.
NFL DFS Props - Over/Under Picks for Week 1
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Justin Jefferson MORE than .5 receiving touchdowns
This should be a solid spot for Kirk Cousins and company to come out firing at home against a Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense. The Bucs' defense allowed the eighth-most receiving touchdowns to wide receivers in 2022 with 16. Justin Jefferson himself managed to haul in eight touchdowns in 2022, including six touchdowns after the bye week.
The Vikings currently have a team total projected at 25.5 points, which is the fifth-highest team total on the board. If the Vikings are able to live up to this total, it would be hard to achieve it without the likes of Jefferson hauling in a score.
Chris Godwin MORE than 55.5 receiving yards
We are going to stay in the same game here with Chris Godwin. He will be up against a Minnesota Vikings defense that allowed an average of over 192 receiving yards per game to wide receivers in 2022, which ranked dead last in the NFL. Godwin should be a security blanket on short routes for Baker Mayfield in this one, which should help him see plenty of volume.
Last season, Godwin managed to eclipse this total in all but four games he started, so he should certainly have a solid shot to eclipse it here again in Week 1.
Derrick Henry MORE than 90.5 rushing yards
This is a relatively low total for Derrick Henry compared to what we have seen in previous seasons. He managed to rush for more than this total in nine of 16 regular season games played in 2022. He also figures to be the focal point of this offense once again, as he averaged nearly 22 carries per game a season ago.
His matchup against the New Orleans Saints looks to be rather solid. The Saints' defense allowed an average of 104 rushing yards per game to the running back position in 2022, which ranked ninth-worst in the league.
Justin Herbert MORE than 287.5 passing yards
This is a relatively high number on Herbert, but we all know he is capable of lighting it up for over 300 passing yards, as he did five times in 2022. One of those times was in Week 14 against the Miami Dolphins when he threw for 367 passing yards. This is not a huge surprise, as Miami allowed the fifth-most passing yards per game to the quarterback position in 2022 by allowing an average of 251 passing yards per game to opposing QBs.
The Dolphins proved to be quite the pass funnel as well, allowing the third-fewest rushing yards per game to the running back position. This tells me it could be a difficult spot for the Chargers to get Austin Ekeler going in the run game, and will more likely rely on the passing game to move the football.
Other Recommendations: Justin Fields more than .5 interceptions
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