USFL Best & Boldest Bets: Preseason Futures & Week 1 Picks

RotoBrady takes a look at the boldest season-long bets for the 2023 USFL season and puts together his favorite bets for Week 1 of the USFL season.

The 2023 USFL season is officially upon us, and we are finally getting XFL and USFL action together for our viewing pleasure this Spring football season. Sportsbooks are now available on that device in your pocket all over the world, and so this is going to be a Spring Football season like no other. I'll be here every week providing sports betting advice for USFL action, so join me here and pay homage to the original "fun" league. Be sure to also read all our other weekly USFL Fantasy Football articles.

If we ever start expanding into the realms of the European League of Football, Indoor Football League, Fan Controlled Football, and/or (I can only hope) the CPBL of Taiwan come baseball season–I'll be right here to discuss the full happenings across the board.

They might not be the #1...or #2 leagues...but damn it, we've congregated here because we love sports. So, when the powers to be in professional sports decide to supply our hungry demand for more year-round action, it would be fundamentally and morally wrong of us to not take a head-first dive into Spring Football education so that we can continue to enter DFS contests and place anxiety-inducing bets on games that most of our friends and family probably won't even know are being played--and if you're still reading this paragraph, I am fully confident that you share my sentiment on that point. Anyway, let's get to talking about the Spring Football league that started it all with the likes of Steve Young, Jim Kelly, Reggie White, Doug Flutie, and near-Congressman Herschel Walker.

I've learned my lesson from this piece's XFL counterpart. This is a Spring Football League, Week 1. So I want to keep this short and sweet, because if anything, it is the over-analysis in these spots early on that kill me. We'll get a little more into individual player performances and burgeoning team identities with each week of the season.

To educate yourselves a bit further in preparation for the season, find all of the results, statistics, and awards at the links below from wikipedia and the USFL News Hub:

https://usflnewshub.com/2022-usfl-stats/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_USFL_season#Season_schedule

Preseason Futures

USFL Championship

Odds (via FanDuel Sportsbook):

• Birmingham Stallions (+310)
• New Jersey Generals (+340)
• Philadelphia Stars (+550)
• New Orleans Breakers (+600)
• Michigan Panthers (+700)
• Memphis Showboats (+700)
• Houston Gamblers (+850)
• Pittsburgh Maulers (+1000)

Best Bet: Philadelphia Stars (+550)

All-Star vagabond head coach Bart Andrus, the entire coaching staff, and Captain Cookus are all back in uniform for the Philadelphia Stars this season? That kind of continuity in Spring Football is just too great to pass up, particularly when it came for a 6-4 squad that rallied all the way to a closely-contested loss in the 2022 Freedom Cup. With all games no longer taking place in front of the Birmingham crowd now that there are four hub-cities, the Stars should be right there with the Stallions and Generals to repeat and make further progress on their 2022 success, and so the value you can get them at right now to go all the way is absolutely tremendous when you consider how rough the field gets beyond +600.

Boldest Bet: New Orleans Breakers (+600)

I would love to have featured either the Birmingham Stallions or the New Jersey Generals here, and while those two teams will have some key continuity in personnel when it comes to the backfields and overall ground-attacks, it is that which is different that catches my attention with the New Orleans Breakers. Of all of the new coaching arrivals in the league, offensive coaching journeyman John DeFilippo is the one in my view with the greatest upside and intrigue. McLeod Bethel-Thompson, who found tremendous team and statistical success in the Canadian Football League, is the real key to this line of thinking though. If the offense is clicking under DeFilippo's scheme with a natural leader like MBT at the helm and Aqeel Glass at second-string as an extremely talented and slept-on dual-threat QB, this team should have little issue making the postseason out of the comparatively weaker South Division.

USFL MVP

Best Bet: Case Cookus (QB, Philadelphia Stars)

Again in the case of the Philadelphia Stars, it is hard to not love the continuity for this team and in bringing back Case Cookus, who looked like the best quarterback in the league once he fully took over for Bryan Scott, and was also a surprising dual-threat. The injury that took him out of the championship game was a concern until he started throwing again--and I think that out of Philadelphia, Birmingham, and New Jersey: if all three end up as expected in the top-tier of the USFL, the Stars success will be most attributable to Case Cookus more so than the Stallions or Generals will be able to attribute to any one player.

I think Philadelphia, while they are not the concrete-solid, well-rounded team like Birmingham or New Jersey, is the team with the most ground to gain moving forward off of the 2022 season--and if that happens, the continued excellent play of Cookus will be the primary reason. As the best quarterback on a team I believe to be poised for another playoff-run, he makes the most sense to me as a preseason MVP designation.

Boldest Bet: McLeod Bethel-Thompson (QB, New Orleans Breakers)

As I have already discussed, how can you not love a quarterback like McLeod Bethel-Thompson with two Grey Cup rings, two CFL All-Star births, a CFL passing title, and a CFL passing TDs title? The man has played football at about every level available in North America, including 2011 stints with the San Jose SaberCats and Sacramento Mountain Lions. If things work out for new coach John DeFilippo in New Orleans, it will be because MBT's ability and leadership takes the team and his offensive coaching abilities to another level. If the Breakers return to the playoffs, there's a tremendous chance that Bethel-Thompson's name is right there in the mix for several awards.

Week 1

Philadelphia Stars at Memphis Showboats (Saturday, April 15th, 4:30 PM)

PHI (-2.5), O/U 38.5

Best Bet: Stars (-2.5) & Over 38.5

As much as I would like to roll with my Memphis Showboats behind former Memphis Tiger Brady White at QB, let's not forget that this team was the Tampa Bay Bandits, and while they are much cooler, have a much sharper attitude, and a dedicated fan base in Memphis, and every team in the USFL seems to have improved from last year, there is still a sizeable gap between the Philadelphia Stars and the Showboats.

However, I do think that if there is one thing Memphis will be able to do with the Stars is score points. A shootout between Case Cookus and Brady White would be a fun way to kick off the USFL 2023, but that is a battle that Cookus will win and probably commit fewer turnovers in. On the worst end of this, I think Philadelphia could take this one 28-10, but I think the majority of probable outcomes here tell you to lay the points with Stars and go over, with maximum final scores of 28-17 or 30-21.

New Jersey Generals at Birmingham Stallions (Saturday, April 15th, 7:30 PM)

BHAM (-5.5), O/U 39.5

Best Bet: Generals (+5.5) & Over 39.5

This is a true heavyweight matchup between two teams that will likely dominate the top-tier of all USFL power rankings this season. Between De'Andre Johnson. J'mar Smith, Bo Scarborough, Trey Williams, and Darius Victor, there is a lot of offensive firepower and a lot of ground game between these two 2022 playoff teams. The coaching and roster continuity here is very strong, and as I said on the "Tap That" episode with Anthony Miller of the XFL and USFL News Hubs: I think the Generals have everything needed to be a postseason team once more, but I don't think that it is likely that those factors come together to form a championship team. Birmingham remains just a little bit better in most categories of football, by small margins, than New Jersey. The defensive playmakers play for Birmingham.

The key term is "small margins". This is going to be a close game--the nature of these two teams almost necessitates it. While I'm a little less sure about over 39.5 because of the up and down nature of these two teams' scoring outputs in any given week last year and all of the ground-yardage that will be gained, I think this game ends up in the 28-24 range that it did last year, with Birmingham still coming out on top with their fantastic home field advantage.

Michigan Panthers at Houston Gamblers (Sunday, April 16th, Noon)

HOU (-1), O/U 38.5

Best Bet: Panthers (+1, *-105 on the ML*) & Over 38.5

As Anthony Miller and I discussed, the top two candidates for "Most Improved Team" for 2023 are the Michigan Panthers and the Pittsburgh Maulers, and while Houston may have made the best new coaching hire in this matchup, Mike Nolan could at least be marginally better than Jeff Fischer was last year. Kenji Bahar will be starting for the Gamblers and Josh Love for the Panthers. I think the full body of the Michigan quarterback depth chart completely outclasses that of the Gamblers, though I love the rushing ability of Terry Wilson. Whether it's Josh Love, Carson Strong, or Eric Barriere at any given point in the year, I like what they offer. Josh Babicz vs. Brandon Benson at TE--and the real matchup to watch: Panthers RB Reggie Corbin and Gamblers RB Mark Thompson.

I was originally thinking under here, but I think this game demonstrates the improvements for these 2022 basement-dwellers, and so while I don't feel strongly about it, I lean over with a final score of 23-17. But the bet to make here is the Panthers (+1) and on the ML. Houston was just a bit of a mess last year and were so close so many times, but I think this Michigan team has a new level of confidence now that they'll be playing in front of their home fans this season. This one could be a flip of a coin, but in that scenario, I favor the side of the coin offering the biggest reward.

Pittsburgh Maulers at New Orleans Breakers (Sunday, April 16th, 6:30 PM)

NOLA (-3.5), O/U 37.5

Best Bet: Breakers (-3.5) & Over 37.5

The Pittsburgh Maulers improved exponentially just by adopting the same color scheme of the rest of the Pittsburgh professional sports world. But in ridding themselves of Kirby Wilson at head coach, it's difficult to see how they wouldn't get better. While I am intrigued by the Ray Horton hire, I am plenty skeptical of it. I've already discussed the New Orleans QB and head coaching situation to some length, but suffice it to say that they have plenty other offensive talent on the team, particularly in Johnnie Dixon and Jonathan Adams at WR and multi-faceted RB Anthony Jones.

The Maulers have a ton of question marks and little professional experience in their QB room, but ultimately, James Morgan will get the start, and that's probably the right decision, or the lesser of three evils. If only they could've held on to Josh Love. But between Madre London, Garrett Groshek, Tre Walker, Bailey Gaither, and a slept-on TE duo in Artayvious Lynn and Matt Seybert, I think that the Maulers can remain competitive and put up points, though I think the Breakers are the better team by at least 3.5 points. I'm looking for a final score of 26-16, Breakers.

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