X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Undervalued Mixed League Draft Targets in 2021

Nick Ritrivi identifies five players who could break out in 2021 for fantasy baseball. These players could be undervalued sleepers in upcoming drafts.

Finding undervalued players during drafts can make or break your fantasy season. One of the ways we look for undervalued players is to utilize RotoBaller’s Expected Draft Value research developed by my colleague Nick Mariano.  We attempt to identify players who are forecast to return value in 2021 which is greater than the expected value at their current draft position.

Expected Draft Value is the value you would historically expect, on average, from a given draft slot. Stating the obvious, a fantasy draft is all about maximizing the potential positive value from every pick made.

Below are five undervalued players that stand to return substantial value to managers in mixed leagues. Each player discussed should likely return a value greater than the value expected for a player taken at their current ADP in 2021.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Marcus Stroman, New York Mets

ADP: 220

Prior to the start of the 2020 season, New York Mets starting pitcher Marcus Stroman went down with a calf injury. Before returning from the injured list, he elected to opt-out due to concerns over COVID-19. As a result, Stroman last pitched in 2019 when he excelled over 32 starts between the Mets and Toronto Blue Jays. He posted 159 strikeouts in 184 1/3 innings pitched to go with a 3.22 ERA, a 1.31 WHIP, 10 wins, and 3.9 WAR.

While it remains questionable as to how a full year off will impact his production in 2021, managers would be misguided by overlooking Stroman for this reason. There is no doubt that Stroman is extremely motivated to perform for the Mets in 2021. After accepting a qualifying offer from the Mets, he will be pitching on a one-year contract in 2021. He’s also looking to assert himself as a key component to a team ready to compete for the N.L. pennant.

Stroman is developing two new pitches, has been working out religiously in the off-season, and is excited to play with the newest members of the club including Francisco Lindor, Carlos Carrasco, Taijuan Walker, James McCann, and former teammate Kevin Pillar (among others). Stroman’s motivation to succeed in 2021 is an x-factor that should make managers think twice about passing on him around pick 220.

When examining his 2019 numbers, we do see that his ground-ball rate declined due to a heavier reliance on his slider and cutter to generate increased strikeouts. Notwithstanding, his 53.9% ground-ball rate was still elite. He also allowed only a 4.1% barrel rate which was in the top-6% of MLB. While his 2019 3.99 xFIP could be cause for ERA regression concern, the Mets have made moves to bolster their defense which could offset such risk.

The Mets have shored up the middle with the additions of Lindor, McCann, and Pillar. This should aid Stroman who has a career 1.7-degree launch angle allowed and relies heavily on a sinker (e.g., thrown 36.3% of the time in 2019, and 43.1% of the time in 2018) to generate outs. Additionally, the impact of the Mets adding McCann who put up a 61.8% strike rate in the lower section of the strike zone (sixth in all of MLB in 2020) should further help Stroman's strikeout totals.

Based on Nick Mariano’s Expected Draft Values research, a starting pitcher being selected around pick 220, should return a value of 3.73 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and 143 strikeouts in 148 IP. With a career WHIP of 1.29 and a career ERA of 3.76, and in light of his most recent 2019 campaign, Stroman should meet, if not beat, the Expected Draft Value ratios in 2021. If he remains healthy, he should also be able to outperform the IP and K expectations and post a solid win total on a contending Mets ball club. Stroman is an excellent undervalued player in mixed leagues at his current ADP heading into 2021.

 

Mark Canha, Oakland Athletics

ADP: 265

In 2020, Oakland A’s outfielder/designated hitter Mark Canha posted a .246/.387/.408 slash line to go with five home runs and a very impressive 33 RBI in 243 plate appearances. While his RBI total, fifteenth in all of MLB, and OBP were among the league’s best in 2020, his power output massively declined after 2019. In 2019, Canha blasted 26 HR in 410 at-bats. By comparison, if extrapolated over 500 at-bats, his 2020 campaign was equivalent to a forgettable 13 HR season.

Looking at his hitting metrics more closely, we notice that Canha’s power metrics and on-base skill set have, generally, gradually increased each season, including in 2020. In fact, other than a very slight decline in his overall hard-hit and barrel rate in 2020, Canha saw a 5.9% increase in his line drive rate. He also saw an increase in his overall launch angle (up to 89.7 degrees from 89.1 degrees in 2019), and a 7.2% decrease in his groundball rate when compared to 2019.

When we examine his exit velocity on FB/LD, we do notice that in 2020 it was 92.4 mph FB/LD, down from 94.3 mph in 2019. While this decrease could account for his 2020 decline in HR output, it should be noted that Canha still finished 91st among qualified batters in this category. Furthermore, this EV on FB/LD was equal to that of Anthony Rendon and only 0.01 mph slower than Nolan Arenado. As a result, nothing really suggests that his sharp 2020 HR decline should be a continued trend into 2021.

In terms of on-base skills, Canha’s .393 on-base percentage since the start of 2019 is the eighth highest in MLB (min. 400 plate appearances). In 2020, his on-base skills included an elite 15.2% walk rate, an overall 19.3% chase rate (well below MLB average), and a .346 xwOBA. This makes Canha likely to remain in the A’s lineup on a daily basis, particularly with Khris Davis being traded to the Rangers. Canha can slot into the DH role if and when he is not playing in the outfield.

According to Nick Mariano’s Expected Draft Values research, a hitter being taken around pick 265 should produce a .229 average, 28 HR, 62 runs, and 69 RBI. With playing time concerns mitigated, Canha should be able to meet the expected 28 HR total and surpass the other expected statistics particularly if his power positively regresses in line with his underlying metrics and 2019 campaign. Canha should provide managers with great value for a player currently being selected after round 20 in mixed-league formats, especially in OBP leagues.

 

Byron Buxton,  Minnesotta Twins

ADP: 115

In 2020, Minnesota Twins outfielder Byron Buxton was on the verge of a breakout before injuries (shoulder, concussion) limited his playing time and, therefore, his overall production. In only 135 plate appearances in 2020, Buxton posted a .254/.267/.577 slash line to go with 13 home runs and 27 RBI. Extrapolated over a conservative 500 at-bats, this production equated to a 48 HR, 100 RBI performance. Obviously, to expect Buxton to have stayed on pace for such production would be lunacy. Nevertheless, it does show how amazing his limited 2020 season was.

Buxton’s 2020 performance was supported by an elite overall barrel rate (13.5%) in the top-12% of the MLB, and an overall hard-hit rate of 47.9% which was in the top-11% of MLB. Additionally, Buxton’s exit velocity of 96.8 on FB/LD was 53rd among all MLB batters (not just qualified batters) and almost two mph better than the 94.9 mph figure he posted in 2019. Additionally, although he only stole two bases in 2020, his sprint speed of 30.0 ft/sec remained in the top 1% in all of baseball.

As we head into 2021, we know Buxton has legitimate five-category potential. Further, his September, in which he posted a .290/.313/.710 slash line with eight HR and 15 RBI, suggests that the best is yet to come.

Anyone playing fantasy baseball is well aware that the big issue with Buxton, who has played fewer than 92 games in all but one of his MLB seasons, is his lack of durability. Assuming Buxton can reach 531 AB, Steamer projects him to put up a somewhat conservative .261/.314/.486 slash line with 25 HR, 77 RBI, and 18 stolen bases. These numbers equate to a batter being taken around pick 89 according to Nick Mariano’s Expected Draft Values research. Accordingly, these conservative projections already suggest that Buxton will outperform his current ADP by almost 25 picks.

If Buxton can build on his September production and the Twins let him run more, who knows how far his counting stats can possibly eclipse the Steamer projections. This could provide managers with incredible top-50 value in the middle rounds….if he remains healthy. At pick 115, given the tremendous upside, managers should set aside injury risk fears and not hesitate to roster the 27-year old Buxton. If he should miss significant playing time, the cost is a middle-round pick. But, if he remains on the field, you could be rostering a league winner in the middle rounds.

 

Michael Lorenzen, Cincinnati Reds

ADP: 415

With a current ADP of 415, it is safe to say that Cincinnati Reds right-handed pitcher Michael Lorenzen is going undrafted in all but the deepest of mixed league formats. With Trevor Bauer leaving Cincinnati for the Dodgers, and Anthony DeSclafani headed to San Francisco, the Reds have the need for starting pitching.

Off-season reports have indicated that Lorenzen will be entering 2021 as a rotation candidate. Amir Garrett and Lucas Sims will likely be competing for the closer role. As a result, if  Lorenzen remains in the bullpen, his fantasy value will be limited to those leagues that reward holds. If, however, Lorenzen breaks camp as a member of the Reds’ rotation, his fantasy value will be greatly enhanced.

In 2020, despite solid underlying metrics, Lorenzen had a shaky campaign in which he posted a 4.28 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, and 35:17 K:BB in 33 2/3 innings pitched out of the Reds bullpen. The final, somewhat mediocre numbers could be attributed to a very poor start to the season in which he posted a 16.88 ERA, a 1.88 WHIP, and allowed three home runs in July over 2 2/3 innings. Looking at his final underlying metrics, Lorenzen posted career highs in overall hard-hit rate allowed (26.6%) which was in the top-4% of MLB, and overall exit velocity allowed of 84.4 mph (top-3% of MLB).

Lorenzen also posted elite whiff and fastball spin rates. His ground-ball rate increased almost five percent when compared to 2019 (and his line drive rate decreased by almost the same amount). In addition, Lorenzen’s 23.8% K%, which was slightly better than the league average, was in line with his 2019 K% (24.8%) when he posted a 2.92 ERA and 1.15 WHIP to go with 85 strikeouts over 83 1/3 IP.

On the downside, Lorenzen’s notorious walk rate jumped all the way to 11.6% in 2020 from 8.2% in 2019. In addition, his cutter was virtually ineffective where hitters batted .467 against it (compared to .250 in 2019) despite his low overall allowed EV. As a result, Lorenzen moved away from his cutter in 2020, throwing it only 17.6% of the time in 2020, compared to over 25% of the time in 2019. If we remove his July numbers, Lorenzen’s final 2020 ERA is 3.19 and his WHIP is 1.35. While these ratios are not on par with his 2019 numbers, it still reflects how poor his start to the 2020 campaign was and how effective he was after that slow start.

If Lorenzen breaks camp in the Reds rotation, there is significant fantasy value for managers willing to spend a very late draft pick on him based on his very solid 2020 metrics and conclusion to his 2020 campaign. Though he won’t single-handedly win you a league, he should provide managers with valuable innings, solid ratios, and roughly a strikeout per inning. While his walk rate needs improvement, even slight positive regression to his unimpressive career average of 9.6% could generate a WHIP under 1.40, as it did in 2018.

If he can also get more production out of his cutter, as he did in 2019, Lorenzen could prove to be an effective starting pitcher on a Reds team that would likely keep him in the rotation all season. Lorenzen could potentially provide managers with SP3/4 upside in exchange for a late, throw-away pick. With an ADP of 415, there is virtually no risk for managers to roster this potential SP prize.

 

Hunter Dozier, Kansas City Royals

ADP: 235

Similar to Michael Lorenzen, though he won’t win managers leagues in 2021, Kansas City Royals corner infielder Hunter Dozier should certainly outperform his current ADP of 235. For this reason, managers should target Dozier in the late rounds of mixed-league drafts.

Based on Nick Mariano’s Expected Draft Values research, a hitter being selected around pick 235 should return a .237 batting average, 28 home runs, and 71 RBI production to managers. In 2019, Dozier posted numbers far better than this. He put up a .279/.348/.522 slash line to go with 26 HR and 84 RBI over 586 plate appearances. This would equate to a hitter being selected almost 100 picks sooner around pick 140, according to the same draft values research. This makes Dozier greatly undervalued, provided we chalk up Dozier’s disappointing 2020 to his positive COVID-19 diagnosis.

In 2020, Dozier slugged just .392 in 2020 (compared to .522 in 2019) and his overall hard-hit rate dropped to 30.9% (bottom-14% of MLB) after posting 42.9% and 40.2% overall hard-hit rates in 2019 and 2018, respectively. 2020 also saw a huge decline in Dozier’s groundball and fly ball rates. His overall exit velocity also fell almost five mph. To make matters worse, Dozier posted a career-worst barrel rate of 8.2%. In fact, with the exception of his strikeout rate and walk rate (which actually jumped up over 5% in 2020), the majority of his hitting metrics took a major step backward.

Before 2020, the Royals’ 2013 first-round draft pick’s power metrics were consistently trending in the right direction. As a result, it is not unreasonable to assume that COVID-19 was the power-sapping culprit. Specifically, after being diagnosed with COVID-19, Dozier was placed on the injured list to start the season and he was limited to just 44 games and 158 at-bats.

Given the upward trends he was seeing prior to 2020, and his first-round pedigree, it is not unreasonable to expect some bounce-back in the power department in 2021. Add in his multi-position eligibility at first base, third base, and the outfield, as well as his 2020 28 ft/sec sprint speed (top 23% of MLB), you have a multi-position, power/speed player who may contribute a few steals on a steal-happy Royals team.

Even assuming Dozier doesn’t entirely replicate his 2019 average, HR, and RBI totals, he should still outperform his current ADP. This makes Dozier a great low-risk, high reward option in the late rounds of mixed-league drafts.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Brooks Koepka

An Afterthought At PGA Championship
Malik Taylor

Lions Sign Luke Deal, Malik Taylor
Michael Kim

Looks To Start At Quail Hollow After Early Exit In Philly
Drake Dabney

Titans Sign TJ Sheffield, Drake Dabney
Cole Fotheringham

Broncos Sign Cole Fotheringham, Kyrese White
Asante Samuel Jr.

Coming Off Neck Surgery
Jordan Lawlar

Officially Called Up
Jayden Reed

Packers Meet With Jayden Reed To Clarify His Status On The Team
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Beginning Rehab Assignment On Tuesday
NFL

Broncos-Chiefs To Square Off On Christmas Day
Stephan Jaeger

Looking To Ride Wave Of Momentum Into PGA Championship
Tommy Fleetwood

A Favorite To Contend At PGA Championship
Patrick Cantlay

Could Turn His Tides At Quail Hollow
Ben Lively

Leaves Start Early With Forearm Inflammation
Jose Altuve

Returns To Lineup On Monday
Sam Hauser

Remains Out On Monday
Corey Seager

Appears To Be Headed Back To Injured List
Donovan Mitchell

Listed As Questionable For Game 5
Ryan Leonard

To Re-Enter Capitals Lineup Monday
Seth Jarvis

Rejoins Top Line Monday
Frederik Andersen

Good To Go Monday
Troy Stecher

Entering Oilers Lineup Monday
Viktor Arvidsson

To Sit Out Game 4
Brayden McNabb

Expected To Play In Game 4
Mark Stone

A Game-Time Decision Monday
Gabe Davis

49ers Hosting Gabe Davis On A Visit
Cleveland Browns

Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah Shifts To PUP List
Terence Steele

Expected To Start At Right Tackle
Jaydon Blue

Could Be Dallas' Lead Back By Season's End
Cam Skattebo

Could End Up As Third-Down Back
Abdul Carter

Giants Plan On Using Abdul Carter Everywhere
Jaxson Dart

Looks Confident In Rookie Minicamp
Brandon Woodruff

Dealing With Ankle Tendinitis
Jack Della Maddalena

Becomes The New UFC Welterweight Champion
Belal Muhammad

Outclassed At UFC 315
Manon Fiorot

Drops Decision At UFC 315
Valentina Shevchenko

Defends Title
José Aldo

Jose Aldo Retires After UFC 315 Loss
Aiemann Zahabi

Extends His Win Streak
Alexa Grasso

Loses Back-To-Back Fights
Alexa Grasso

Natalia Silva Outclasses Alexa Grasso
Kyle Prepolec

Submitted In His UFC Return
MMA

Benoit Saint-Denis Gets Back In The Win Column
Viktor Hovland

Finishes Tied For 54th At Truist Championship
Sepp Straka

Wins The Truist Championship
Xander Schauffele

Finishes Tied For 11th At Truist Championship
Shane Lowry

Finishes Tied For Second At Truist Championship
Tom Kim

Finishes Tied For 54th At ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic
Russell Henley

Finishes Tied For 46th At Truist Championship
Tony Finau

Finishes Tied For 15th At Truist Championship
Wyndham Clark

Finishes Tied For 63rd At Truist Championship
Ludvig Aberg

Finishes Tied For 60th At Truist Championship
Trey Hendrickson

Hasn't Had Communication With Bengals Recently
NFL

Chiefs-Chargers To Face Off In Brazil In Week 1
Nick Jackson

Buccaneers Sign Nick Jackson
James Pearce Jr.

Signs Rookie Deal
Kaleb Johnson

Must Improve His Pass-Blocking
NFL

Eagles-Cowboys To Kick Off 2025 Season
Ryan Blaney

Holds Strong For A Top-Five Finish At Kansas
William Byron

Struggles At Kansas With An Underwhelming Finish
Chase Briscoe

Scores A New Career-Best Cup Finish At Kansas
Denny Hamlin

Mechanical Issues Ruin Denny Hamlin's Promising Kansas Performance
Alex Bowman

Puts Together A Strong Top-Five Finish At Kansas
Ryan Preece

Earns His First Career Top-10 Finish At Kansas
Evan Rodrigues

To Be Evaluated On Monday
Sergei Bobrovsky

Stops Maple Leafs From Scoring In Game 4
Kyle Connor

Ends Mini-Slump On Sunday
Thomas Harley

Collects Two Points Sunday
Mikael Granlund

Registers Two Assists In Sunday's Win
Mikko Rantanen

Continues Scoring Tear In Game 3
Christopher Bell

Finishes Second In Otherwise Subpar Day For Toyota
Chris Buescher

Has Decent Run At Kansas, But Teammates Outperform Him
Josh Berry

Despite Qualifying Error And Speeding Penalty, Josh Berry Finishes Sixth
Joey Logano

Despite Joey Logano's Complacency, Penske Cars Fast Enough For Top-10 Finish
Tyler Reddick

Once Again Inexplicably Mediocre At One Of His Better Tracks
Brad Keselowski

Crashes Out At Kansas But Shows First Hint Of Speed
Jordan Lawlar

Set For Promotion To Majors
Zack Wheeler

Dominates Guardians In Fourth Win
Kyle Schwarber

Cracks Pair Of Dingers
Donovan Mitchell

Doubtful To Return To Game 4
Ronel Blanco

Strikes Out 11
Karl-Anthony Towns

Not On The Injury Report For Game 4
Sam Hauser

Questionable For Game 4
Stephen Curry

Remains Out On Monday, As Expected
Woody Marks

Inks Rookie Deal With Houston
New England Patriots

Isaiah Iton Heading To New England
Hunter Goodman

Nearly Hits For The Cycle
Colorado Rockies

Rockies Fire Bud Black
Jordan Martinook

Available For Game 4
Stuart Skinner

To Start Game 4 On Monday
Mark Stone

Not Ruled Out For Game 4
Sergei Bobrovsky

Looking To Regain Sharpness Sunday
Connor Hellebuyck

Hopes To End Road Woes On Sunday
Colin Blackwell

Enters Stars Lineup Sunday
Zach Eflin

Cleared To Start On Sunday
Corey Seager

Not Past His Hamstring Injury
Stephen Kolek

Strikes Out Seven In Complete-Game Shutout
Kyle Larson

Could Embarrass The Field At Kansas
Tyler Reddick

Should Be Fast At Kansas
Denny Hamlin

Has Been Phenomenal At Kansas in Next Gen Car
Brett Baty

Hits A Pair Of Home Runs, Drives In Five In Loss
Ryan Blaney

Expect Ryan Blaney To Obtain Another Quality Kansas Finish
Chris Buescher

May Be One To Watch At Kansas
William Byron

Is Among The Top Favorites To Win At Kansas
NASCAR

Should DFS Players Roster Bubba Wallace At Kansas?
Christopher Bell

Qualifies Third For This Week's Kansas Race
Austin Cindric

May Be A Great And Sneaky DFS Pick For Kansas
Jack Roslovic

Notches Two Points In Game 3 Win
Frederik Andersen

Produces 21-Save Shutout In Game 3 Victory
Aaron Judge

Blasts Two More Homers
Shea Langeliers

Powers A's Past Yankees With Five RBI
Corey Seager

Tallies Three Extra-Base Hits, Two Homers In Return To Lineup
Jacob deGrom

Records 10 Strikeouts
Jose Altuve

Exits Early On Saturday
De'Andre Hunter

Ready To Play Friday
Evan Mobley

Returns Friday
Darius Garland

Officially Available Friday
Sam Hauser

Likely To Remain Out On Saturday
Belal Muhammad

Set For His First Title Defense
Jack Della Maddalena

Has A Chance To Become UFC Champion
Manon Fiorot

Looks To Become The New Champion
Valentina Shevchenko

Set For UFC 315 Co-Main Event
Aiemann Zahabi

Looks For His Sixth Win In A Row
José Aldo

Jose Aldo Set For Featherweight Bout
Natalia Silva

Looks To Extend Her Win Streak
Alexa Grasso

Returns At UFC 315
Kyle Prepolec

Set For UFC 315 Main-Card Opener
Benoît Saint Denis

Benoit Saint Denis Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Stephen Curry

Unsure When He Can Return From Injury
De'Andre Hunter

Iffy For Friday
Evan Mobley

May Miss Another Game
Darius Garland

Questionable For Game 3
Nikola Jokić

Nikola Jokic Held In Check Wednesday
Chet Holmgren

Logs Double-Double In Game 2 Win
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Leads Thunder To Blowout Win
Derrick White

Close To Another Double-Double In Game 2
Jaylen Brown

Struggles In Second Half Wednesday Night
Josh Hart

Leads All Scorers With 23 Points In Game 2 Against Celtics
Mikal Bridges

Makes Late Impact Again
Will Zalatoris

Looking To Find Consistency Heading Into Philadelphia
Justin Rose

In Solid Form Ahead Of Truist Championship
Russell Henley

Looks To Keep Building Momentum At Truist Championship
Brian Harman

In Great Form Heading Into Philadelphia
Corey Conners

Red-Hot Heading Into Truist Championship
Daniel Berger

In Great Form Ahead Of Truist Championship
Sahith Theegala

Struggles Continue Ahead Of Truist Championship
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF