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Antonio Losada's DraftKings DFS lineup picks for UFC 249 on 5/9/2020. Read his MMA DFS analysis for the slate, and build winning daily fantasy MMA lineups.
Initially scheduled for April 18th at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York, UFC 249 will now resonate from the VyStar Veteran's Memorial Arena in Jacksonville, Florida. After the anticipated bout between Khabib Nurmagomedov and Tony Ferguson was canceled once again, the Lightweight Championship will be defended, with "El Cucuy" now squaring off with Justin Gaethje.
The latter is coming off a victory over "Cowboy" Cerrone in September of last year. The card will also feature plenty of hard-hitting as Ryan Spann and Francis Ngannou, among others, will all be in action. In a Bantamweight Title Bout, Henry Cejudo will battle Dominick Cruz.
In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy MMA lineup picks for DraftKings for UFC 249 on 5/9/20. You can check out our FanDuel MMA DFS picks as well. These DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced fighters and value picks on FanDuel. Give me a follow on Twitter @chapulana. Good luck.
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Lightweight - MMA DFS Lineup Picks
Tony Ferguson, $8,700 - vs Justin Gaethje
I don't know if Tony is the most dangerous fighter on the UFC roster, all things considered, but he might be right up there on the leaderboard. Check this out: in his last five fights, "El Cucuy" has gone the distance just once -- against Rafael Dos Anjos back in mid-2016 -- and in the other four, he has won either by TKO or Submission. Ferguson has developed, which feels like a unique ability, to cut open his opponents' flesh, and is as ruthless as they come.
Ferguson goes into this weekend's bout having logged back-to-back fights with at least 122-plus fantasy points against both Donald Cerrone and Anthony Pettis in contests that went just two full rounds before being stopped.
Gaethje will be facing a terrific finisher, and this will mark the first time he's on the main card of a UFC event since he was part of UFC 218 in 2017. Gaethje has improved his results fight after fight during his last three, with all of them finishing under 4:18 minutes and all by TKO. Tony might be one of the best closers out there, but Gaethje is a straight killer.
I have to favor the veteran and more experienced Tony here. Although fighters will most probably try to close shop as soon as possible, if the fight goes the distance, Gaethje will be entering uncharted territory as he's almost never gone past three rounds.
Bantamweight - MMA DFS Lineup Picks
Dominick Cruz, $7,400 - vs Henry Cejudo
The mighty Henry Cejudo has defended his belt three times already and will do so this Saturday against a UFC legend in Dominick Cruz. Although Cejudo's profile as a fighter has changed and turned more into that of a finisher (he's got away with a couple of TKOs in his last two fights), he doesn't average a lot of fantasy points per minute on the mat.
He often finishes his fights at or under 100 DKFP. He was able to knockdown Marlon Moraes and T.J. Dillashaw (who was taken care of in just 32 seconds) in 2019, and his run as a champion started when he defeated the seemingly-unbeatable Demetrious Johnson in mid-2018.
Dominick Cruz is a staple of the sport, but we haven't seen him in a UFC event since the end of 2016 when he went the distance against Cody Garbrandt, a fight that resulted in an L. Other than that blip, his curriculum is fairly astonishing: five other fights, four decisions, and one TKO adorn it. He's always scored more than 106 fantasy points, and in a fight that could go the full fight rounds (and which very well could be his last shot at a belt), Dom will surely try as hard as ever. I'm going with the underdog here.
Heavyweight - MMA DFS Lineup Picks
Francis Ngannou, $9,100 - vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik
Do you want a quick, fun fact about Francis? Going back to 2015, Ngannou has been part of 11 fights, won nine of them, and stay on the octagon for around 62 minutes. If you remove the couple of fights that ended in a decision (coincidentally his two losses), he'd have logged just 22 minutes in the other nine, which averages two minutes and a half in each of them.
That's correct, Ngannou is a monster that ends his fights before you can even blink once. He has racked up wins to the tune of TKOs in his last three bouts (all under the 1:11 mark of the first round) and also finished four more (between July 2016 and December 2017) in the first round and under two minutes. Such finishing-power alone makes Ngannou a lock to toy with 100 DKFP every time his name is called.
What about Jarizinho, though? In four fights (all of them during the last year), he's yet to get defeated, has never gone the distance, and counts his UFC appearances by TKOs. He's dropped Junior Albini, Allen Crowder, Andrei Arlovski, and Alistair Overeem. Only the latter lasted more than six minutes standing against him, and Crowder was put off in just nine seconds last June.
The fight against Overeem showed how Rozenstruik can go the distance, but when that happens, he (and Ngannou by extension) loses all of the fantasy appeal of the potential quick, powerful finish. Risky fight to pick a man as the one who lands the biggie will destroy the fantasy upside of his opponent, but Ngannou should take care of the Cinderella.
Light Heavyweight - MMA DFS Lineup Picks
Donald Cerrone, $8,000 - vs Anthony Pettis
It doesn't surprise anyone that Cerrone is being faded heavily after losing three consecutive fights (in ugly ways, also), but keep in mind those came against Tony Ferguson, Justin Gaethje, and Conor McGregor. The first two are part of this weekend's card main event, and I don't think McGregor needs any sort of introduction.
That said, though, Cerrone averaged 116.5 DKFP in his prior three bouts (one in 2018, two in 2019), all of them wins and two before reaching the time limit with a TKO and a Submission. Cerrone has all of the experience in the world, and then some.
Pettis, pretty much as Cowboy, has been on the low lately. His best days seem to be mostly over as he's lost three of his last four bouts. Same as with Cerrone, though, his competition has been stiff: Tony, Nate Diaz, and Diego Ferreira in order. It's a finish-or-loss with Pettis (he's logged only two wins by decision in his career, and both came before 2018).
Cerrone is vulnerable these days, but I'm not trusting Pettis and his low fantasy upside (he's averaged just 90.8 DKFP in his last four wins, and his per-minute production isn't that great). I'm betting on a comeback to the winning column for Cerrone.
Light Heavyweight - MMA DFS Lineup Picks
Ryan Spann, $9,300 - vs Sam Alvey
Spann is the highest-priced asset of the weekend, and it makes all of the sense. With three fights since September 2018 under his belt, all of them wins, Spann is a menace. He earned his last one by submission in seven minutes, and prior to that, he defeated Rogerio Nogueira (TKO) in just over two minutes of the fight.
The bonus points for finishing bouts before the time expires are on Ryan's favor more often than not, and he can do it all from striking to taking the opposition down. Alvey's fight log is as wide as you can imagine. He's been part of UFC events since 2014, and in the 17 fights he's fought, he's got nine wins to eight losses. The problem is that three of those L's have come consecutively going back to 2018 and his last three bouts, two by TKO and another one by decision.
Alvey's upside for fantasy contests is rather low, as he struggles to go past 70 DKFP even in his best of wins. There is nothing to gain with Sam whether he comes out winning or not, so I'd rather play Ryan on this one -- without a single doubt in mind.
