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Happy Friday, RotoBallers! We have a strong slate on tap with an abundance of prop picks to select from. In this article, I will break down several plays that are worth taking a shot on. I will be here each and every Friday and Sunday throughout the season to break down pitcher and hitter props.
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Friday, May 10, 2024. If you ever want to chat about any MLB bets, you can find me on X @LucidMediaDFS
MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Tyler Glasnow OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (-160, DraftKings)
I'll start today's slate with a strikeout play out in San Diego as Tyler Glasnow takes the ball for the Dodgers.
The Good: Glasnow has hit this number in five of his eight starts so far this season. This includes a start with nine strikeouts, two starts with ten strikeouts and a start with a whopping 14 strikeouts already. He's also seen a lot of success against this current Padres lineup, and my model projects him to log 6.78 strikeouts tonight.
Tyler Glasnow, Fastball (home plate view). pic.twitter.com/Eq9jGrNF0J
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 27, 2024
The Bad: The Padres have not struck out at a high clip against right-handed pitchers this season, logging a 20% strikeout rate. However, this number is so low, that I have no problem taking a chance at 5.5, which we can get at -160 on DraftKings.
Joe Ryan Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-135, DraftKings)
I'll head up to Canada for my second play of the day as we take a look at the over on Joe Ryan's strikeout prop.
The Good: Ryan has cleared this number in four of the seven starts he's made in 2024. He brings in a 28.8% strikeout rate over the last 30 days, and projects to a 30.25% strikeout rate today. My model also projects him to log 6.92 strikeouts in this one.
The Bad: Ryan hasn't cleared this number in each of the last two starts, and the Blue Jays don't strike out a ton against right-handed pitching (20.1% in 2024).
The projection is too high for me to fade here, and despite Toronto's low strikeout rate, this feels like a good opportunity for Ryan to get back on the right foot. I'll grab his strikeout prop at 5.5 on DraftKings at -135.
Carlos Carrasco UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts (-135, DraftKings)
We'll wrap up our pitching props for the day out in Chicago, as we take a look at the under on Carlos Carrasco's strikeout prop.
The Good: Carrasco has only cleared this mark in two of the seven starts he's made in 2024. He brings in just a 14.8% strikeout rate over the last 30 days and a 14% strikeout rate over the last 14 days. My model projects Cookie to have just 3.49 strikeouts in this one.
The Bad: The White Sox aren't very good, ranking 27th in wRC+ against right-handed pitching (76). They sit in the middle of the pack in terms of strikeouts against righties, bringing in a 23.3% strikeout rate into tonight's ballgame.
While I don't anticipate the White Sox to light Carrasco up, giving him an early hook and subsequently keeping him under this strikeout prop, I do think their outs will be due to soft contact. I can't see Carrasco having the "stuff" to log five strikeouts in this one, and we can get under 4.5 at -135 on DraftKings, while this line on other sportsbooks is much higher.
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Tyler O'Neill OVER 1.5 Total Bases (-105, DraftKings)
We'll head up to Boston for my first hitting prop of the day, we'll take a look at Tyler O'Neill's total bases prop to start things off.
The Good: O'Neill has had a great start to the 2024 season, and has eclipsed 1.5 total bases in 12 of the 28 games he's played so far this season. He has a .321 batting average and .322 ISO against southpaws to this point in the campaign. He also brings in a strong .565 wOBA against lefties over the last week, and projects to 2.59 total bases in this one.
The Bad: Nothing in particular. While Corbin has technically been better against right-handed hitters this season, he still brings in a .342 PBA against righties. Unless Corbin turns back the clock and pitches a gem here, he should have some issues with the Boston lineup, particularly Tyler O'Neill.
We're getting a great number on this line, with it coming in at even money on DraftKings. This is a "home run" play, which I may be interested in grabbing also.
Jonah Heim OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-105, DraftKings)
I'll wrap things up out in Coors, as we take a look at Jonah Heim's over on his Hits + Runs + RBI prop.
The Good: The defending World Champions are looking to turn a corner here, and Heim looks to continue in his production, as he has hit this line in 20 of 33 games played this season. He's most recently coming off of a seven H+R+RBI game on Wednesday against Oakland. He brings in a .451 wOBA against left-handed pitching over the last two weeks, and projects to 2.52 H+R+RBI today.
The Bad: Heim has hit better from the left side of the plate this season, however, it's not by much. He has a .302 average against right-handed pitching and a .294 batting average against left-handed pitching. This line is also a bit juiced, but I feel this is such a good play, especially in Coors, that I'm comfortable taking it despite the odds.
Even at -170 on DraftKings, I feel this is a good play, and will be a good way to wrap up our Friday night and head into the weekends with some added bankroll.
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