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Dan Stephens looks at big fantasy baseball stories from the seventh week of the 2024 MLB season: Paul Skenes' MLB debut, Luis Arraez to the Padres, and Seth Lugo's spectacular two-start week.
Hello again, RotoBallers. A new week of fantasy baseball is upon us and now that lineups are locked, let's take another look at the biggest stories of the last week. As always, I’ll offer my thoughts from a fantasy context to gauge how relevant these goings-on are for us managers.
On May 11, Paul Skenes finally arrived in Pittsburgh after getting stretched out in Triple-A for the first month and a half of the season. Stretching back to last weekend the Padres made the first big move of 2024, landing Luis Arraez in a deal with the Marlins. And Seth Lugo’s hot start to the season kept going, with the 34-year-old vet making the most of a two-start week.
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Paul Skenes: Welcome To The Show
At long last, Paul Skenes made his major league debut on May 11 against the Chicago Cubs. Last year’s first-overall draft pick mowed through Triple-A, striking out 45 batters in 27 ⅓ innings, allowing just eight walks and three earned runs to start the year. After weeks of being criticized from all angles for keeping the phenom in the minors, the Pirates finally took the kiddie gloves off and promoted the LSU alum to the delight of fans league-wide.
The moment was not lost on the home crowd, who were on their feet for most of the first inning. Skenes got off to an auspicious start, striking out the first two batters he faced then walked Cody Bellinger and got Christopher Morel to fly out to end the first inning. A shaky second inning elevated his pitch count but he got himself out of a bases-loaded jam with another strikeout and a ground out.
Skenes got back on track with an 11-pitch third inning, followed by a fourth wherein he allowed a home run (to Nico Hoerner, go figure) but also logged three more punchouts. After opening the fifth with two hits and his pitch count ticking up to 84, Skenes got the hook and received a standing ovation from the crowd in Pittsburgh.
Paul Skenes generated 14 whiffs in his electric MLB debut
Here are all of them: pic.twitter.com/t8xOySFmzp
— Thomas Nestico (@TJStats) May 12, 2024
Fantasy impact: Skenes showed that he has the stuff to be a strikeout pitcher. Perhaps nerves got the better of him in his debut, as it seemed hard for him to find the strike zone at times which added up to two walks and a hit batter in his four-plus innings. At the end of the day, his ERA was 6.75 since the two batters he put on base to start the fifth came around to score in unfortunate fashion.
That was the most remarkable inning I have ever seen in person.
5:24 PM: Paul Skenes pulled in the 5th after allowing two hits. 6-1 PIT.
5:26: Kyle Nicolas comes in and gets two quick outs.
5:28: HBP loads the bases.
5:29: 4 pitch BB. 6-2 PIT
5:31: 4 pitch BB. 6-3 PIT
5:33: 4…— Céspedes Family BBQ (@CespedesBBQ) May 12, 2024
If I’m a Skenes owner (alas I am not), I am encouraged by this debut. It was far from perfect but the signs that he will soon dominate were there. He hit 100 MPH or more 17 times and his splitter generated a 58.3% whiff rate. Another matchup against the Cubs comes next, followed by the Giants and possibly the Tigers depending on how the Pirates manage the rotation. Such a run would give Skenes a decent runway to settle in before facing more formidable offenses down the line.
Arraez To The Padres
There have been a handful of trades since the start of the season but, for the most part, the market has been cool. Last weekend that changed when the Padres made the first big splash of the season acquiring Luis Arraez from the Miami Marlins in exchange for a handful of prospects.
On Friday, May 3 it was announced that Arraez was being sent to San Diego with minor leaguers Dillon Head, Jakob Marsee, Nathan Martorella, and Woo-Suk Go heading to Miami. The deal became official on May 4. Arraez, the back-to-back batting champ in 2022 and 2023, now has an opportunity to win the award again while playing for his third team in as many seasons.
Arraez has reached base safely in every game since joining the Padres, going 11-for-32 and a walk and scoring five runs in the last week. His debut with his new team was a four-hit effort against the Diamondbacks. In his first game at Petco Park, he delivered the game-winning hit and walked off the Dodgers.
Luis Arraez's game-winner from every angle 📹
(MLB x @CoronaUSA) pic.twitter.com/UBJADiTGgw
— MLB (@MLB) May 11, 2024
Fantasy impact: With Manny Machado cleared to play the field once again, the Padres had a hole to fill at designated hitter. Arraez does not offer much pop but he certainly knows how to make contact. He will again be a good resource for a team that needs to buoy their team batting average. Hitting in front of Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. will likely bring Arraez around to score more often than he would have in Miami.
On Miami’s end, there is little to be excited about. The prospects that moved to the Marlins’ system are of long-term project variety and won’t make an impact this season. Woo-Suk Go was signed from the KBO and was once thought to be their closer-in-waiting until he was assigned to the minors after an ineffective spring training. Given the state of Miami’s bullpen, he might be invited up to carve out a role for himself but it is hard to see him making a meaningful contribution in fantasy.
Cy Lugo
Who would have guessed that Seth Lugo would be among the early contenders for the American League Cy Young Award? In his previous eight seasons, Lugo was mostly used as a reliever and spot starter. In 2017 he started 18 games for the Mets and finished with a 7-5 record and 4.71 ERA. In his second go as a regular rotation piece last season, then with the Padres, Lugo fared better. He logged 146 ⅓ innings across 26 starts, going 8-7 with 140 strikeouts and a respectable 3.57 ERA.
Given his resume, there was not much there that would indicate Lugo would start 2024 as one of MLB’s most successful starting pitchers. So far he has logged seven quality starts in his first eight games. Lugo now leads the AL in wins (6), ERA (1.66), and ranks fifth in WHIP (0.96).
Those numbers are his totals following his May 12 start against the Angels. That game capped a two-start week that delighted anyone who put their faith in the righty. Lugo went eight innings against the Halos, allowing five hits and a single run, striking out a career-high 12 batters and snagging the win. Earlier in the week, on May 7, Lugo took the hill against the Brewers and allowed six baserunners and two earned runs over 6 ⅔ innings.
Quatraro on Seth Lugo's performance: "To strikeout 12 and only throw 110, 112 pitches or whatever, that's really remarkable. Just the confidence you have when he's out there." pic.twitter.com/utSEG6EKE7
— Bally Sports Kansas City (@BallySportsKC) May 12, 2024
Fantasy impact: Lugo’s start has been nothing short of incredible. I can’t help but think that this might be a good time to sell, though. Lugo is vastly outperforming his expected stats and he has benefitted from a .235 BABIP and 91.3% left on-base rate. Sooner or later those baserunners are going to come around and his ratios will inflate. Those who can’t find suitors or are simply willing to let it ride while Lugo is hot can find optimism in a look at his upcoming schedule. Next on the docket for Lugo is Oakland, with no real offensive threat in the weeks ahead until a projected start against the Dodgers in mid-June.
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