RADIO
When it comes to rookies in fantasy hoops, opportunity is everything. Sure, talent is important, but there's always a chance that it won't pay dividends in year one.
In layman's terms, an ultra-talented player stuck at the back end of a contending team's depth chart won't exactly win you a fantasy championship. Yes, we're looking at you, Peyton Watson. On the contrary, a rookie with a significant role right out of the gate has a much better shot at returning value in year one, cc Keegan Murray. While this way of thinking isn't the case in dynasty formats, it's paramount to view rookies through this lens in redraft.
Now that we've established the recipe for rookie success in redraft fantasy hoops, here are my "Top 10 Rookies for the 2023-2024 NBA Season".
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1. Victor Wembanyama (PF/C), San Antonio Spurs
Surprise! Wemby is a true hoops unicorn whose skill set is unlike anything we've ever seen before. At the end of the day, this is one of the rare examples where the landing spot kind of didn't matter. Wemby could have gone anywhere in the lottery and immediately become the focal point of the team.
As if his all-galaxy talent isn't enough, the Spurs were the best franchise he could have gone to. Outside of their elite track record of developing Hall of Fame big men, they are led by a storied coach and primed for an alpha. That's where Wemby comes in. Sure, he could face some growing pains early on, as evidenced by his two appearances in Summer League. But his elite shot-blocking and ability to score from every spot on the floor should buoy his value around the top 50 for most of the year.
Honorable Mention: Chet Holmgren (C/PF), Oklahoma City Thunder
While he is *technically* a rookie after missing all of last season, I decided not to include him in this list. If I were to include him, he'd be the 1b right behind Wemby's 1a. Holmgren is a hoops unicorn in his own right, and his ability to stuff the stat sheet will go a long way for him in fantasy. Expect lots of rebounds, blocks, and threes on good percentages this season, and don't be surprised if he finishes the year as a top-30 guy.
2. Scoot Henderson (PG/SG), Portland Trailblazers
Not only is Scoot the second-most talented player in his draft class, but he's also on the verge of being presented with an enormous opportunity. At the time of this writing, it appears unlikely that Damian Lillard will be on the Blazers' roster much longer, opening up the door for Henderson to not only enter the starting lineup but receive a heavy amount of usage in year one. The concerns over his three-point jumper are valid, but his speed, playmaking ability, and athleticism at the rim are second to none. I'd expect the ball to be in his hands a ton this season and that alone should lead to a higher fantasy ceiling. His skill set, however, will likely translate greater to points leagues early on.
3. Ausar Thompson (SG/SF), Detroit Pistons
Yep, you read that right. Ausar, not Amen, slides in right behind Scoot for me on this list. While his twin brother was picked one spot higher, I love the opportunity Ausar was drafted into with Detroit. That's all it boils down to for both of them on this list. Amen was the better prospect, but he finds himself in more of a logjam with the Rockets. More on that in a second.
Ausar has a realistic shot to start alongside Cade Cunningham, Jaden Ivey, and Bojan Bogdanovic to start the season. He's a gifted passer and an athletic freak on defense, just like his brother.
Honestly, it seems like we're splitting hairs between the two, but Ausar might simply have the ball in his hands a bit more. And that matters in fantasy hoops.
4. Amen Thompson (SF), Houston Rockets
We only got one game from Thompson in Summer League but it was well worth it. He finished with 16 points, four rebounds, five assists, three steals, and four blocks in 28 minutes before leaving with an injury. Now, Summer League is not the NBA and it would be foolish to project similar results, but his short stint did show us that his game is fueled by suffocating defense and tantalizing playmaking. His three-point shooting is still a work in progress but I suspect his game won't be reliant on scoring to produce value. This is a good thing because shots will be hard to come by with all of the mouths to feed in Houston. At the time of this writing, the Rockets legitimately have 10 guys worthy of a rotation spot. And that's not including Jae'Sean Tate and the ageless wonder Jeff Green. I don't care how much talent you have, it would be hard for anyone's fantasy value not to be suppressed.
All in all, he should fit nicely into Ime Udoka's defense-first approach and play a sizable role in the rotation. There is a legitimate path for him to see 25-27 minutes a night due to talent alone.
5. Brandon Miller (SF), Charlotte Hornets
Miller had an up-and-down showing at Summer League but there is a reason the Hornets took him at number two overall. He falls to five on this list simply because of the crowded frontcourt in Charlotte. Miller will have to battle LaMelo Ball, Terry Rozier, Gordon Hayward, and the recently re-instated Miles Bridges for shots, and with shooting being his calling card, that could affect his output.
That said, he still appears in line to play a sizable role, which is what lands him at five on this list. Playing alongside the playmaking savant that is Ball, he should have plenty of good looks and provide solid three-point value. I just believe his path to production could be a bit trickier than the aforementioned guys.
6. Gradey Dick (SG/SF), Toronto Raptors
Out of every lottery team that could have selected Dick, the Raptors just might have been the best fit. He brings to Toronto exactly what they need most: shot-making and floor spacing. That alone may earn him extra minutes by default, as the only true three-point shooter on the roster is Gary Trent. But the shooting isn't all he can do. Dick is an excellent defender, whose 6'8 frame allows him to guard multiple positions. And if one thing is true, it's that switchability is paramount in today's NBA.
Sure, there are rumblings of a Pascal Siakam trade that could shake things up. But for now, Dick should have no problem seeing significant minutes from the get-go. And remember, Nick Nurse is no longer at the helm, so the threat of the starters hogging all of the minutes in Toronto could be a thing of the past.
7. Jarace Walker (PF/SF), Indiana Pacers
Not only is Walker capable of contributing across multiple different categories (PTS, REB, 3PT, FT%, STL, BLK), but he and the Pacers go together like two peas in a pod. His game is like a Swiss army knife of sorts. He has the size and wingspan to play down low as a small-ball five while also possessing the athleticism to play on the perimeter. That alone should make it hard for Rick Carlisle not to find ample minutes for him. The Pacers did acquire Obi Toppin earlier this month for two second-round picks, but he's not a shoo-in to start over Walker at this juncture.
I would take his Summer League performance with a grain of salt (as should be the case with everyone) because there's no way he will take 17.5 field goal attempts or sniff a 26.5% usage rate during the regular season. By ranking him here, I'm simply betting on his size and motor to earn him extra minutes for the Pacers this season.
8. Cason Wallace (SG), Oklahoma City Thunder
Wallace is an exceptional perimeter defender and has all the makings of an excellent three-point shooter. The Thunder drafting him inside the top 10 tells me one thing: Lu Dort's time is on the clock.
In all seriousness, his 3&D playstyle as a 6'4 guard should fit nicely with the young Thunder playmakers. He's a great spot-up shooter and his ability to move without the ball should help him find tons of open looks in this offense.
As things currently stand, he'll likely open the year by coming off the bench, but I have a feeling that Dort's leash is a bit tighter at the moment. If he can routinely see 20+ minutes a night, his value in threes and steals could pay huge dividends for fantasy managers.
9. Taylor Hendricks (PF), Utah Jazz
Hendricks didn't play in Summer League, so he's missing out on all of the premature off-season hype, but he's just as talented as most of the guys on this list. Sure, the addition of John Collins muddies the water but all that tells us is that they aren't ready to feature Hendricks just yet. His game is eerily similar to Collins', only the former is a better defender.
While we can't expect him to see heavy minutes early on, that could change in an instant. His defensive instincts and ability to knock down the three could be valuable in fantasy. He's Jarace Walker with less opportunity.
10. Leonard Miller (PF), Minnesota Timberwolves
Miller has the talent to be much higher on this list, but the T-Wolves have an assortment of other reliable forwards on their roster. From Karl-Anthony Towns and Kyle Anderson to Naz Reid and Jalen McDaniels, there doesn't appear to be much room for Miller to garner consistent minutes right off the bat. If, however, a move is made that frees up more playing time, we could be looking at Miller as a potential league-winner.
A true stretch-four, he can contribute in multiple categories, much like the aforementioned Jarace Walker. Through five Summer League games, Miller averaged 15.4 points, 8.0 rebounds, 1.4 threes, 1.4 steals, and 0.8 blocks on 44% from the field and 86% from the line. The all-around game is there, but will he get the opportunity to showcase it?
BONUS - Cam Whitmore (SF), Houston Rockets
From a massive draft slide to Summer League MVP in less than a month, the last 30 days for Whitmore have got to be a whirlwind. Offensively, he's a smooth scorer with a quick first step. Defensively, he has great instincts and is a fixture in passing lanes. There's only one issue. I don't see how in the world he's going to see enough consistent minutes to be productive this season. As previously mentioned, the Rockets have more than 10 guys deserving of a rotation spot at the moment. So, while he might be productive on a per-minute basis, it's not something you'd want to rely on all season. If, however, additional moves are made or injuries occur, Whitmore has what it takes to move the needle.
Either way, prepare for him to be over-drafted after his Summer League heroics. Much like Tari Eason was a season ago.
BONUS - Jalen Wilson (PF/SF), Brooklyn Nets
Wilson is my fantasy rookie sleeper for this piece and there is a lot to like. He's a little older (22), which likely played a role in him being selected towards the end of the second round. But he's a good player. And after four years at Kansas, he'll join the Nets as a two-way player and I think he has staying power. His game is NBA-ready and his IQ is off the charts. He's also shown an improvement in his three-point jumper. After improving to 33% during his senior year, he knocked down 48% (11-23) of his threes across five summer league games.
Looking at the Nets' roster, they don't have a ton of forward depth outside of Cam Johnson, Dorian Finney-Smith, and Royce O'Neal. For what it's worth, I suspect one of Finney-Smith and O'Neal will be included in a deal at some point.
All I'm trying to say is don't be shocked if Wilson gets an opportunity and takes full advantage of it.
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