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Who should I start or sit for fantasy football Week 1 of the 2023 season? Andrew Ball identifies potential fantasy football busts and duds to avoid.
The gap between fantasy football drafts and opening night kickoff is similar to the time between Christmas and New Year's Eve. You're coming off of that holiday high but the next big event is just a handful of days away. Like any holiday, you'll need to make your plans in advance.
That's where fantasy managers are heading into Week 1. You've executed your draft day plans and now it's time to set those lineups to begin the new year. Generally speaking, Week 1 has the least amount of roster decisions to make. You essentially set your lineup when you complete your draft. Bye weeks have yet to come into play and outside of a few injuries, players are the healthiest they'll be for the entire season.
As you prepare to set your lineups for a victorious Week 1, make sure potential fantasy landmines stay on your bench. Below are my 10 fantasy football busts for Week 1 of the NFL season.
Editor's Note: Steer clear of costly draft mistakes with RotoBaller’s expert Fantasy Football Bust analysis. We break down overvalued players, potential letdowns, and risky ADPs to avoid, so you can build a smarter, safer roster.
Daniel Jones vs. Dallas Cowboys
Is this the most optimistic Giants fans have been since the Eli Manning era? Last season, Daniel Jones showed that he was a quarterback who could lead a team to the postseason for the first time in his career. The team rewarded him with a new contract and a shiny new weapon in tight end Darren Waller. Star running back Saquon Barkley is coming off a 1,300-yard rushing season and rookie Jalin Hyatt's speed in training camp has fans buzzing.
Well, I (Andrew Ball of RotoBaller.com) am here to rain on the parade. The Cowboys' opportunistic defense limited Daniel Jones to a 56.9 percent completion percentage, 424 yards, one touchdown, and one interception in two games last season. Even with a strong rushing performance during the Week 3 contest (nine carries for 79 yards), Jones finished with a meager 14.7 fantasy points. In Week 12, the total was just 14.5 fantasy points. Neither was close to a top-12 finish, a threshold you strive for when selecting which QB to start.
| Week # | Passing | Passing Yards | TD/INT | Rushing Yards | Rush TD | Fantasy Points |
| Week 3 | 20-37 | 196 | 0/1 | 79 | 0 | 14.7 |
| Week 12 | 21-35 | 228 | 1/0 | 14 | 0 | 14.5 |
C.J. Stroud at Baltimore Ravens
This bust is mostly for Superflex and 2QB leagues (at least I hope you aren't depending on C.J. Stroud in single QB formats). The Ravens' defense has not made things easy for opposing rookie quarterbacks over the years. Even guys like Ben Roethlisberger and Josh Allen struggled in their NFL debuts against Baltimore.
Stroud didn't exactly light it up in the preseason, either. The ex-Buckeye finished 11-of-18 for 89 yards with one touchdown and one interception in eight total series. In his first exhibition matchup against New England, Stroud was pressured relentlessly and the Patriots weren't even running their first-team defensive line.
Houston's offensive line is in flux. Two centers (Scott Quessenberry and Juice Scruggs) are on injured reserve. Starting left tackle Tytus Howard (hand) is also on IR and the team added veterans Josh Jones and George Fant to fill the voids. Expect the Ravens, who tallied 48 sacks a season ago, to bring pressure early and often and force Stroud into some bad throws.
Jamaal Williams vs. Tennessee Titans
Alvin Kamara is suspended and rookie Kendre Miller is dealing with a hamstring injury. That could leave Jamaal Williams as the only show in town this weekend (excluding converted wide receiver Kirk Merritt, who has zero career carries). Usually, that's someone you'd love to slide into your lineup but there are reasons to be cautious about Williams this week.
The Tennessee Titans allowed the fewest rush yards, yards per carry, and only nine touchdowns (tied for the third-fewest) to running backs in 2022. All that amounted to the third-fewest fantasy points per game. They did, however, surrender 94 catches out of the backfield. That was tied for the fifth-most.
That's not a weakness of Williams' game, per se. But it's not something he's ever been known for. His career-high for receptions was 39 back in 2019 as a member of the Green Bay Packers. Williams is still a low-end RB2 option, but he could turn a poor performance if the Saints don't score a rushing touchdown (or if Taysom Hill poaches one from inside the five).
Najee Harris vs. San Francisco 49ers
Harris was already on my bust list for 2023 and his Week 1 matchup does him no favors. The Steelers' lead back only averaged 3.8 yards per carry in 2022 and the 49ers' rush defense is the best in football. San Francisco's opponents attempted the least amount of carries last season and totaled the second-fewest yards on the ground.
| Team | YPC | Rushing Yards | Touchdowns Allowed |
| San Francisco | 3.4 | 1,321 | 11 |
| Tennessee | 3.4 | 1,307 | 9 |
| Baltimore | 3.9 | 1,566 | 11 |
| Indianapolis | 4.1 | 2,109 | 20 |
| New England | 4.1 | 1,793 | 7 |
Harris' fantasy points largely come from opportunity. The former first-round pick averages less than four yards per carry in his short career but has tallied over 300 touches in each campaign. In the preseason when starting quarterback Kenny Pickett was on the field, Harris and backup Jaylen Warren split snaps almost down the middle. If that trend remains when the regular season starts, Harris will struggle against one of the best defenses in football.
Breece Hall vs. Buffalo Bills
This has nothing to do with talent and everything to do with opportunity. Head coach Robert Saleh noted earlier this week that both Breece Hall and Dalvin Cook will not be on a snap count, but they'll be smart with both backs. Hall and Cook may split touches down the middle or worse as Michael Carter could see the field on passing downs.
The Jets are facing the Buffalo Bills, who surrendered the eighth-fewest points to running backs in 2022. Hall was drafted to be a starter in standard-sized leagues, but that was more for season-long potential rather than early-season success. Given an uncertain workload and tough matchup, Hall is a better fit for a flex or bench spot this week.
Eagles Running Backs at New England Patriots
Who is actually the lead back in Philadelphia? At various points this offseason, reports have told us that Kenneth Gainwell, D'Andre Swift, and Rashaad Penny will take a majority of the snaps. We don't have a clear picture of how the touches will shake out. I'm not even sure head coach Nick Sirianni does at the moment.
The good news is that none of the trio should have been drafted to be a starting running back for Week 1 (unless you really bought into the Zero RB strategy and grabbed Swift in the middle rounds). There will be weeks where one (or two) of the three will be startable. While we wait to see the division of labor, it's best to avoid this backfield.
It doesn't help that the Eagles face New England in Week 1, who held opposing teams to the fifth-fewest yards per carry (4.1) and tied for fifth in fewest first downs allowed per game in 2022.
Stefon Diggs & Gabe Davis at New York Jets
Rule No. 1 in fantasy football: Do not sit your studs. Stefon Diggs should remain in your lineup but there are reasons to be concerned about a potential down week for the three-time Pro Bowler. When he lines up on offense on Monday Night Football, he'll frequently be face-to-face with Jets cornerback Sauce Gardner.
The reigning Defensive Rookie of the Year led the NFL with 20 passes defended last season and only allowed one touchdown (against Cleveland in Week 2). Pro Football Focus ranked Gardner as the best cornerback in football.
In the two games against the Jets last season, Diggs gathered 15 targets and eight catches for 130 yards and zero touchdowns. An average of 7.5 targets and four catches for 65 yards isn't what you want from a wide receiver drafted in the first or early second round.
In all of Diggs' other games, he averaged 9.9 targets per game. Again, do not sit Diggs. But be warned that his production may not be up to par when facing off against Gardner and the stout Jets defense. The same argument also applies to Gabe Davis, who should be on your bench in leagues that start two receivers and a flex.
Quentin Johnston vs. Miami Dolphins
There will be a ton of fantasy points scored in the Week 1 matchup between the Dolphins and the Chargers, but Quentin Johnston could struggle to find opportunities early on. The rookie is currently listed as the WR4 on his team, behind Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Joshua Palmer.
The first-round pick still needs some time to develop after reports of an up-and-down training camp. Even Justin Jefferson, now considered by many to be the best wide receiver in football, struggled in his first two outings of his rookie season (2/26 and 3/44 on three targets per game). Keep Johnston as a stash and hope that he quickly develops. But don't be surprised if it takes a little time.
Kyle Pitts vs. Carolina Panthers
There's a cloud of pessimism orbiting Kyle Pitts as we arrive at Week 1. Head coach Arthur Smith recently suggested that the former first-round tight end could be used in places that don't lead to as many targets in 2023. That's essentially an end-around way of saying that the Falcons would like him to work more in the blocking game.
On PrizePicks, Pitts' receiving line is just 37.5 yards. If those projections come true, he's essentially a touchdown-or-bust tight end for fantasy football. And since he's on an offense that will run, run, and run some more, confidence in Pitts finding the end zone is not very high. Given the nature of the position, the ex-Florida Gator is probably still a start, but a bust is just as likely.
Trey McBride at Washington Commanders
The Arizona Cardinals are fading their own team, so why shouldn't we? Head coach Johnathan Gannon just named his starting quarterback as Joshua Dobbs. Running back James Conner will likely be in lineups due to usage and position scarcity. The other name that could be popular (outside of Marquise Brown) is tight end Trey McBride.
Starter Zach Ertz has publicly announced that he's unsure if he'll suit up this weekend, making McBride the show at the position. Ertz did get in a limited practice on Wednesday, though. We can't rule him out for Week 1 just yet.
McBride had one good game (4/55 in Week 15) and one great game (7/78/1 in Week 17) at the tail end of his rookie season when Ertz was no longer available. Because of his results at the NFL Combine, productivity in college, and draft capital, McBride is a popular candidate to be a star tight end in the NFL one day.
It's going to be difficult for that time to be now, at least until quarterback Kyler Murray (knee) returns. Plus, the Commanders held opposing tight ends to the fourth-fewest fantasy points scored per game in 2022. He's likely a Week 1 bust, especially if Ertz ends up playing.
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