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Gage Bridgford analyzes the Week 10 Thursday Night Football matchup between the Dolphins and Ravens and offers his favorite prop picks and more/less picks for Monkey Knife Fight.
The NFL season is rolling, and we cannot waste our opportunity to make some cash. Tonight, we kick off Week 10 with the Miami Dolphins hosting the Baltimore Ravens.
On MKF, there are no massive tournaments where you have to get ridiculously lucky just to cash. You're just playing against the house, and the dudes at MKF have fallen all over themselves to give you really attractive opportunities to make some money.
As always, there are some solid props we can look to take advantage of.
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Miami Dolphins vs Baltimore Ravens: More or Less Contest
- Marquise Brown MORE than 70.5 receiving yards
- Myles Gaskin LESS than 49.5 rushing yards
Marquise Brown has cleared this mark in all but three games this season, and he’s hit in four of his past five games. Brown is the primary receiving option in this offense with double-digit targets in three of his past four games, and tight end Mark Andrews is the only other pass-catcher in the Ravens’ offense with more than 39 targets this season. One major factor for Brown’s ability to hit this high receiving mark is his big-play ability as he has a reception of at least 20 yards in every single game this season. As long as he maintains that pace, he should have a good shot of hitting this mark.
For one, Myles Gaskin has only gone for more than 50 yards just twice this season. For two, he’s only gone for 40 or more yards just once in his last six games. The Dolphins’ offense makes no sense when it comes to how they call plays on a weekly basis. In Week 5, Gaskin had 15 touches and played nearly 70 percent of the snaps before playing less than 40 percent of the snaps and having just seven touches the next week. The Ravens are allowing an average of just 80.5 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs, but considering Baltimore should be leading this game and forcing the Dolphins to pass the ball, the game script does not look favorable for Gaskin to run it up.
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Miami Dolphins vs Baltimore Ravens: More or Less Contest
- Mike Gesicki MORE than 57.5 receiving yards
- Rashod Bateman MORE than 53.5 receiving yards
The worst area of coverage for the Ravens is at the second level with their linebackers where Patrick Queen and Malik Harrison both grade in the bottom 12 among qualifying linebackers for coverage grade. Gesicki has been one of the best receiving tight ends in the NFL this season, as he ranks fourth among all tight ends in receiving yards while averaging a healthy 58.8 yards per game. With the team likely forced to throw to keep the game close, that increases the opportunities for Gesicki who could have a big game in the middle of this defense.
Since entering the lineup in Week 6, wideout Rashod Bateman has been sliding into his intended role seamlessly. He was drafted to give Baltimore a chain-mover underneath with Brown taking the top off of the defense. Bateman’s five catches in Week 9 all went for first downs. He’s seen at least six targets in all three games he has played thus far, and his role figures to remain the same here. If he can snag at least one decent chunk play, he can get to more than this mark.
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Miami Dolphins vs Baltimore Ravens: More or Less Contest
- Marquise Brown MORE than 15.5 fantasy points
- Myles Gaskin LESS than 13.5 fantasy points
Dating back to Week 12 of the 2020 regular season, Brown has put up double-digit fantasy points in all but two games. He’s gone for more than 15.5 in nine of the 14 games that he’s played in that span. Thanks to his aforementioned ability to generate big plays, along with a nose for the end zone (six touchdowns this season and 12 in his last 14 regular-season games), 15.5 is well within the realm of possibility. As long as he stays healthy for the entire game, he should be able to hit this mark for you.
The only main concern for this line has to do with Gaskin’s involvement in the passing game. Despite totaling just 57 scrimmage yards a week ago, Gaskin’s six receptions put him into double digits, and a rushing touchdown really boosted his day. The Dolphins don’t consistently use their running backs, and that makes it impossible to predict Gaskin’s success. Rather than relying on a decent game from Gaskin this week, it’s better to just avoid him.
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Miami Dolphins vs Baltimore Ravens: Rapid Fire Contest
- Devonta Freeman +14.5 rushing yards vs Myles Gaskin & Marquise Brown -2.5 receiving yards vs Jaylen Waddle
The best part of this first matchup is that we’re getting Devonta Freeman as the underdog in this matchup. Freeman splits touches with everyone and his quarterback in the backfield, so he gets this big margin for error to match up with Gaskin. Gaskin has yet to go over 70 yards this year, and he’s been held under 50 yards in all but two games thus far. Freeman has gone over the 50-yard mark in two of his last three games with the exception being the team’s blowout loss to the Cincinnati Bengals. He has clearly become the lead running back in this backfield. The Brown vs Jaylen Waddle matchup is a closer one, but there is more margin for error. A three-yard gap for Brown is something he can hit simply because of his big plays. Waddle has seen a lot of volume this year, but he has yet to go for 100 or more yards. Both players are explosive, but we’re going with Brown for this one.
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