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Thunder Dan's MLB Betting Picks for August 4: Pitcher Props, Totals, Money Line Bets

corey seager fantasy baseball rankings draft sleepers MLB injury news

Do you enjoy betting on baseball? I damn sure, do, and I do it every day. And I try to bring you some winning bets every day, too! Whether you like game totals, sides, or player props, I have something in here for you and try to cover a little bit of everything!

Last month, I started my own free sports betting newsletter, and the good people here at RotoBaller are allowing me to share my picks and data with you here in this space! You can access the free substack here and sign up for daily emails in addition to viewing the picks daily here on the RotoBaller website.

In this article, I'll be providing my MLB favorite betting picks on Thursday, August 4th, 2022. The odds on these bets vary from book to book and are constantly changing. I primarily use FanDuel and DraftKings sportsbooks, but I would strongly encourage you to shop for the best odds at whatever books you use daily. I would also advise checking back later in the day as I may add bets depending on odds changing or specific props becoming available after I first post.

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MLB Betting Picks: Strikeout Projections

I do my own strikeout projections for just about every pitcher, every day. I use both season-long data and the most recent 14-day rolling samples from pitchers and opposing hitters when calculating these projections and I also include some other helpful stats here that I look at while making my picks, including pitchers' SwStr%, BB%, etc... These are median projections that are based on the average length of start for each pitcher, so if you think a pitcher is going to pitch deeper or less deep than usual, adjust accordingly.

(click to enlarge)

 

MLB Betting Picks: Pitcher Prop Bets

Brandon Woodruff o7.5K vs. PIT (-105 DK)

The Pirates have proven feisty this week, getting to Burnes and slowing down Peralta last night before winning late. I’m staying the course here as Woody has been fantastic in the last month and has owned them. The odds here are better than you’d expect, perhaps a function of the Milwaukee pitchers’ failure so far in this series.

Janson Junk o4.5K vs. OAK (+125 DK)

Junk whiffed 8 Royals in his debut and I had to really move his projection down here since his minor league numbers were very average. However, Oakland is pretty poor offensively and I think we can expect Junk to get 5 here based on how well he pitched (got a ton of groundballs and soft contact, so his first start wasn’t entirely fluky).

Cole Ragans o4.5K vs. CHW (-140 FD)

This is only up on FD so far, but the Rangers are bringing up their top pitching prospect, Ragans. He blew threw AA and AAA this year with fantastic numbers and I was hoping we’d get him at a nice low number. I put his projection very cautiously at 5.5, and bumped his K rate way down from his numbers in the minors, otherwise, we’d be looking at something in the 6-7 range. The Chi Sox are tough, but I give the rookie the advantage here and they haven’t seen before and he’s got a pedigree and stats to back the hype.

Jeffrey Springs o4.5 vs. DET (-170 DK)

Springs has already moved to o5.5 at plus money on FD, which is a decent bet, but a good bit riskier. The odds here are crappy, so I might parlay him with some others rather than bet him straight. But he’s been able to hit that 5k mark in nearly every start this season since entering the rotation earlier in the year.

 

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MLB Betting Picks: Sides and Totals

TEX ML (+115 DK)

This is a bit of a shot in the dark, but if this rookie Ragans is really the dude, then I think Texas can win here at home. Johnny Cueto has always struggled against lefties and Texas has a lineup full of them. The White Sox have been trending up, which is the only reason I think they are favored here, but clearly, Vegas respects Ragans quite a bit here as he’s only a slight home dog.

OAK/LAA under 8 runs (-110 DK)

These two offenses suck, there is no way around it. They are terrible. Junk looked good in his debut and Blackburn is the best pitcher on the Oakland staff now with Montas gone. The trends back us here with both teams hitting the under more often (56% and 54%, respectively) this season.

TB/DET under 8 runs (-105 DK)

A few things line up here. One is my love for Jeffrey Springs, who I think is an emerging stud in the making. And the other is my love for betting Detroit unders as they’ve been the second-best team in baseball at staying under their totals (after Houston), largely due to an anemic offense and a pretty solid bullpen.

 

MLB Betting Picks: Betting Trends

I usually include this chart at least once a week in my newsletter, so that readers can see how every team has fared in specific situations this year. I like looking at trends, but I use them to support my data-driven picks, I don't rely on them by themselves.

(click to enlarge)

I hope you find my data and picks helpful and profitable! Thanks for checking out my picks and content here at RotoBaller!



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