Third Base Risers, Fallers, Buys, and Sells for Dynasty Fantasy Baseball

December 16, 2024

Eric Cross discusses six risers and fallers at the third base position heading into 2025 and recommends if you should buy low, sell high, hold, or avoid in fantasy baseball leagues this offseason.

It's been an exciting few weeks in the baseball world with Juan Soto's signing, Kyle Tucker being traded, and various other notable moves, including a few that impact the third base position, which we'll be talking about today.

As I've said several times before, there's never a bad time to make moves to improve your team(s) for the upcoming season and beyond. Part of that is identifying player values that are shifting positively or negatively and making the determination of whether to buy, sell, hold, or avoid. That's what this series is going to focus on. I'm going position by position, discussing players whose values are rising or falling right now and what we should be doing with them.

After discussing the catcher, first base, and second base positions previously, we head over to the hot corner today, which is chalked full of intriguing trending players heading into 2025.

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Third Base Risers, Fallers, Buys, and Sells for Dynasty Fantasy Baseball

Jordan Westburg, Baltimore Orioles

One of my favorite dynasty buys overall this offseason has to be Jordan Westburg. Unfortunately, a fractured right hand halted a breakout season for Westburg, but the silver lining here is that it created a buying opportunity in dynasty leagues.

In just 447 plate appearances, Westburg racked up 57 runs, 18 home runs, 63 RBI, and six steals, along with a 264/.312/.481 slash line. That's a 650 plate appearance pace of 83 runs, 26 home runs, 92 RBI, and nine steals.

Wild, Wild, Walk-Off pic.twitter.com/qAIBU8sfPg

— Baltimore Orioles (@Orioles) April 2, 2024

In addition to having a 91st percentile sprint speed, Westburg recorded an 11.8% barrel rate, 91.1 mph AVG EV, and 46.1% hard-hit rate. All of those ranked in the top 24% of hitters, and Westburg's xBA, xSLG, and xwOBA were all in the top 12 % of hitters.

Over a full season, Westburg has what it takes to hit 30 home runs while adding double-digit steals. However, his zone and overall contact rates were below average, and he only walked 4.9% of the time in 2024, so I wouldn't expect the AVG or OBP to take major steps forward.

But still, even if Westburg sticks in the .260 range, he could settle in as a Tier 2 option at the third base position, given his all-around production. Let's hope he can hold onto his dual 2B/3B eligibility for a few more seasons as well. This is a Top-50 caliber player that you can get for cheaper than that in trade right now.

Josh Jung, Texas Rangers

I'm really beginning to sour on Josh Jung. There's still solid value here long-term, but I'm questioning if Jung ever turns into the Top-100 player and Top-10 third baseman that many hoped and thought he would be. A fractured right wrist limited Jung to 188 plate appearances in 2024, where he slashed .264/.298/.421 with seven home runs and four steals.

However, Jung's quality of contact metrics took a hit, with his barrel rate dropping two percent, his hard-hit rate dropping 7.7%, and his AVG EV dropping 5.2 mph.

I'm not overly concerned about Jung's power, though. It's the contact skills and aggressive approach that have me shying away from him in dynasty leagues.

Jung walked at a lowly 4.3% clip in 2024 and saw his zone and overall contact rates slip to 76.6% and 68.1%, respectively. Jung also posted a career-worst 35.5% chase rate, and his first pitch swing rate rose to a career-high 43.6%, which is 13.7% above the MLB average.

Could Jung settle in as a mid-level corner infielder option for our fantasy teams? Sure. However, it's going to take some improvements in several areas for Jung to reach the Top 100 overall status. I'm not out, but I'm fading and would rather target other third basemen in dynasty leagues, such as Jake Burger, Mark Vientos, Matt Chapman, or Westburg.

Noelvi Marte, Cincinnati Reds

If you were like me and had several shares of Noelvi Marte last season, we should get together and form a support group. There's no way to slice and dice Marte's 2024 season to provide hope or optimism moving forward.

He was suspended for the first half of the season and was one of the worst hitters in baseball in the second half of the season. You can chalk up 2024 as a completely lost season for Marte and one we hopefully never have to live through again.

So why am I mentioning him here? It comes down to upside, cost, and opportunity. Yes, 2024 was painful, but we can't forget how hyped many of us were about Marte entering the 2024 season before he got suspended. In his 123 plate appearance debut for the Reds back in 2023, Marte produced a 91.3 mph AVG EV, 46.1% hard-hit rate, and a 91st percentile sprint speed while slashing .316/.366/.456.

The opportunity for him to start regularly is still there in 2025, and the cost might never be lower. Because of that, I'm looking to acquire him wherever possible as a low-cost investment with a potentially high return on investment.

Isaac Paredes, Houston Astros

If you've followed my work for long enough, you'll know that I've always been lower on Isaac Paredes than most due to his flawed profile. Paredes' pull-happy tendencies worked in Tampa Bay, where it's 315 feet down the left field line, but being traded to the Cubs was terrible for his value as Wrigley Field is 355 feet down the line.

And as you could expect, his already down-trending production took a nosedive with the Cubs, where he slashed .223/.325/.307 with only three home runs in 52 games.

However, thanks to another trade, Paredes is back in a ballpark that suits his profile, as the Crawford Boxes are only 315 feet down the line in Houston. As you can see above, some of those doubles and outs would've been homers in Houston. I added the red line to help show where the wall is.

I'm not expecting Paredes to return to 2023 levels, but his value is trending back up following the trade. Even with well below average quality of contact metrics (85 mph AVG EV, 27.1% HH), Paredes could flirt with or exceed 20 home runs in 2025 now that he's in Houston. An uptick in the AVG department wouldn't shock me either, given Paredes' 90% zone and 82.8% overall contact rate.

Matt Shaw, Chicago Cubs

With Paredes now a member of the Houston Astros, that clears the hot corner for the arrival of top prospect Matt Shaw.

After a slow first month of the season, Shaw picked up the pace in a big way over the final four and a half months, slashing .306/.384/.525 with 18 home runs and 24 steals from May 10 through the end of the season. There were even some rumblings that Shaw was going to debut late last season, but that never came to fruition.

Matt Shaw could slot in at 3rd Base following the Isaac Paredes trade.

5/10-EOS: 412 PA, .306/.384/.525, 18 2B, 18 HR, 24 SB, 10.2% BB, 17.2% K

One of my favorite rookie targets for 2025.#FantasyBaseball pic.twitter.com/Ymx76t1MMX

— Eric Cross (@EricCrossMLB) December 13, 2024

With Shaw, the profile doesn't stand out, but he brings above-average power and speed to the table with a solid blend of contact and approach as well.

He should have no issues pushing or exceeding 20 home runs and 20 steals on an annual basis, and that could start as soon as this season with him being one of the frontrunners for National League Rookie of the Year. Shaw is one of my favorite rookies for 2025 and a Top-10 overall prospect for fantasy.

Deyvison De Los Santos, Miami Marlins

After swatting a minor league-leading 40 home runs in 2024, there's plenty of hype surrounding Deyvison De Los Santos heading into 2025 as he's on the cusp of making his Major League debut with the Miami Marlins. But I'm here to throw some cold water on that hype.

Does De Los Santos have big-time raw power? Yes, and I've seen that power first-hand out in the Arizona Fall League. However, outside of the power is where the profile becomes concerning.

Before I get to his contact rates, we have to factor in where De Los Santos played in 2024.

De Los Santos' first 87 games of the season were played for Double-A Amarillo (38 games) and Triple-A Reno (49 games), which are two extremely hitter-friendly parks. And the Pacific Coast League is a hitter's haven in general. After De Los Santos moved to Jacksonville following the trade, which is less hitter-friendly, his slash line dropped considerably.

As for his contact skills and approach, let's just say they weren't good in the slightest. De Los Santos is an aggressive hitter who only walked 5.8% of the time in 2024.

Being aggressive isn't a full detriment to a hitter's value, but it gets worse when you factor in De Los Santos' 64% contact rate. This type of profile is prone to more prominent peaks and valleys, with the valleys usually outnumbering the peaks. I'd look to sell high in dynasty leagues right now if you roster De Los Santos.

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