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Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Tarik Skubal is a 2021 fantasy baseball draft value. His ADP is undervalued, making him a potential draft bargain and late-round sleeper to target.
BALLER MOVE: Draft target ~pick 275
CURRENT ADP: ~295 overall
ANALYSIS: Tarik Skubal was not even the most highly touted young pitcher on his own team last year, as he was often overlooked for Casey Mize. However, Skubal outperformed Mize and posted a really strong 27.6% strikeout rate with an 8.2% walk rate. The ERA was bloated because of a huge home run issue (2.53 HR/9). Call me crazy, but I don't think a guy with as much talent as Skubal will post anything close to a home run rate that high over a full season.
The Tigers' plan was probably not to have Skubal in the Majors so early, but the canceled minor league season forced their hand. One possible consequence of that early arrival was Skubal really being overly reliant on his fastball, throwing it 59% of the time. While it is a great pitch (touches 98 on the gun), you just cannot throw that many fastballs and have success in the Majors. The good news is that Skubal has four other pitches in his arsenal. They all need some refinement, but just the presence of them really raises the ceiling here. With a full offseason of work, Skubal should be ready to really take the next step forward and crush his draft price.
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