X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Are You For Real? Surprising SP Starts (Week 2)

Elliott Baas looks at some starting pitchers who turned in surprising starts recently. These SP could be sleepers and waiver wire targets, or simply mirages.

Welcome to our surprising starts series. Every week we’ll be going over a few surprising starting pitcher performances around the majors to determine whether these starts were smoke and mirrors or something more.

This week we'll be going over Sean Newcomb's dominance at Coors Field, and great two-start performances from Reynaldo Lopez and Andrew Triggs.

These starters are definitely worth a look on the waiver wire, but there may need to be more growth before they become lineup mainstays.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Real Deal or Mirage?

Sean Newcomb, Atlanta Braves

2017 Stats: 100 IP, 4.32 ERA, 4.19 FIP, 9.72 K/9, 5.13 BB/9
04/08 @ Colorado: 6 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 9 K

There were a lot of things to like in Newcomb’s first road start of 2018. He went into Coors Field and dominated the Rockies on Sunday. Newcomb’s nine punchouts came with 15 swinging strikes, and he averaged 94.1 MPH with his four-seamer, a full MPH faster than it was in his first start. What’s most encouraging is zero walks allowed. Poor control has long hindered Newcomb’s success, but Sunday’s start was the first career zero-walk start for Newcomb in the majors. There has never been a question of talent or stuff with Newcomb, but control has been the missing piece at every level.

Newcomb’s tendency to mislocate pitches not only caused him to walk batters, but it led to more batter-friendly pitches and an inordinate amount of hits against him. Although Newcomb’s .327 BABIP against was above average, he has consistently had a BABIP above .300 in the minors. Newcomb’s biggest problem was locating his changeup. The changeup had a 22.91% whiff rate last season, but batters also hit .400 with a .486 BABIP against the pitch. When Newcomb keeps it down it fools hitters, but when it gets left up in the zone the changeup gets crushed. In changeups below the strike zone, Newcomb has a 31% whiff rate, but when it rises in the zone or just outside, batters hit over .600 against it. If we compare his changeup heatmaps from 2017 (left) to 2018 (right) we see that Newcomb has done a much better job of keeping the pitch down in his first two starts.

This is the improvement that Newcomb needed to make to take a step forward, and it would be great to see him maintain this command. Even with improved command, there are still a few things in these first two starts that cause skepticism that Newcomb is ready to be a reliable fantasy starter.

So far in 2018 Newcomb has thrown 45 curveballs and has only gotten three swinging strikes with the pitch. He also used his curveball only 13.4% of the time in his start against the Rockies, and Newcomb’s curveball has been touted as his best pitch as a prospect. High altitude negatively affects curveball movement, so Newcomb may not have been comfortable using the pitch at Coors Field. Still, it’s a little suspicious that he was able to be this dominant on a diet of fastballs and changeups. Newcomb got nine whiffs with his fastball this start, doubling his whiff rate on the four-seamer from a year ago. While Newcomb has a good four-seamer, getting this many whiffs does not seem sustainable over the course of the season. It was likely the product of a Colorado lineup that featured three lefties and was without Charlie Blackmon and Carlos Gonzalez. Six of those nine whiffs came against left-handed batters. Newcomb had a 3.57 FIP against lefties last season, but a 4.21 FIP against righties.

Verdict:

Command gains and swinging strike rate are certainly encouraging, but Newcomb does not seem on the verge of a breakout quite yet. Putting up zeroes in Coors is always impressive, but he faced a couple members of Colorado’s B-squad on Sunday. Newcomb is definitely worth adding, but he’s not an every game start yet. He should be especially effective against lefty-heavy lineups.

 

Reynaldo Lopez, Chicago White Sox

2017 Stats: 47.2 IP, 4.72 ERA, 4.75 FIP, 5.66 K/9, 2.64 BB/9
4/2 @ TOR 6 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 6 K
4/8 vs. DET 7 IP, 2 H, 0 ER (1 unearned run), 5 BB, 5 K

Once a highly regarded pitching prospect, Lopez struggled in the majors between 2016-17 with a 4.81 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, and 5.16 xFIP. He had a two-start week last week, and came up big in both outings with only one earned run allowed over 13 innings. Lopez did a lot of encouraging things in both of these starts. Against Toronto, he hit triple digits with his fastball, and against Detroit he showcased his new slider big-time to get some whiffs. Lopez has a 13.1% swinging strike rate through these starts, and has secured 25 whiffs between both games.

In the first start against Toronto, Lopez used a mix between his four-seamer, changeup, and slider to include thirteen swings-and-misses. He also averaged 97.3 MPH with his fastball, which is a great sign since his velocity dipped down to 94.5 MPH last season. This velocity helps set up his changeup, which had four swinging strikes on 18 pitches during this start. Lopez’s average velocity dropped to 95.1 MPH in his second start, but that start came during a 36-degree Chicago afternoon. His the first one was inside a domed ballpark. Lopez came out throwing 97-98 MPH against Detroit in the first inning, but his velocity dipped as the game progressed.

Another interesting note about Lopez’s second start is the absence of the changeup. He threw just one changeup all game, and it was smoked by Leonys Martin for a single into right field. Perhaps Lopez didn’t have a feel for the pitch, or didn’t trust it given the weather or lack of fastball velocity. He shut down the Tigers using essentially just his fastball and slider.  Since the slider is something Lopez had been tinkering with during the spring and hadn’t used it in past seasons it was nice to see him trust it so extensively during this start. The five walks were concerning, but Lopez never had big command issues in the minors. Let’s have a look at the strike zone plot to see how wild he was.

It seems like he was all over the place, but Lopez didn’t walk anyone through the first three innings. He started to get a little wild as the game progressed and did himself no favors with a 27-pitch, 12-ball inning in the fourth. He gets a pass for this start, but if this continues then Lopez could be in trouble.

Verdict:

Lopez’s introduction of the slider has given him a better breaking ball than the curveball he used to feature when he first came up. His arsenal now features a high velocity heater along with a plus off-speed pitch and breaking ball. When all three are working for him he should perform well, and he got the job done without the changeup on Sunday. He has been quite fortunate in these two first starts, with a .108 BABIP against and a 93.8% strand rate. Neither of those will be close to sustainable over the season. Lopez shouldn’t be trusted in every matchup yet, but he’s worth using in positive and neutral matchups.

 

Andrew Triggs, Oakland Athletics

2017 Stats: 65.1 IP, 4.27 ERA, 4.47 FIP, 6.89 K/9, 2.62 BB/9
4/2 vs. TEX: 5 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 7 K
4/7 @ LAA: 5.2 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 6 K

Like Reynaldo Lopez, Andrew Triggs also made two starts this week and was great in both of them. Triggs has averaged nearly 11 K/9 through his first two starts, and has been getting hitters to whiff consistently with his breaking pitches. As a 29-year-old Baltimore castoff with a career 4.15 ERA Triggs may not seem like much, but there is a lot to like in his profile. His 2017 numbers were also influenced by a hip/back injury that ended his season in June. Pitching through injury Triggs saw his below-average velocity decline, and he surrendered 14 runs in 7.1 innings in his final two starts. If we subtracted those two starts from his overall numbers he would have had a 2.64 ERA and 3.54 FIP in 58 innings while fully healthy. Of course, those numbers can’t be totally wiped from the slate, but this exercise provides more context to his pedestrian 2017 stats.

Triggs’s most effective pitch through his first two starts has been his curveball. Batters have mustered only a lone single against the pitch and have whiffed 21.13% of the time. Between Triggs’ two starts the one against Texas was especially impressive. Of his eleven swinging strikes, ten of them were outside of the strike zone. That is the hallmark of an effective curveball that can rack up strikeouts. Whiffs have been down on his slider, with only an 8.93% swinging strike rate, but he’s more than made up for it with his curveball. Triggs has more strikeout potential than his 20.9% strikeout rate suggests.

Triggs is an interesting player for a couple reasons. He has a sidearm delivery, but despite this low arm slot his grip is closer to that of an overhanded delivery. That has helped him maintain even platoon splits during his short career. He has two breaking pitches that can notch strikeouts. Last season Triggs had double digit whiff rates on both his slider and curveball, and had a 10.4% swinging strike rate overall despite a below average 6.89 K/9. Triggs also throws a 90 MPH that can most generously be described as deceptive, but he does manage to get groundballs with it. For his career Triggs has a 59.8% groundball rate with his sinker. This sinker-curveball combo makes Triggs look a poor man’s Zack Godley. Godley’s stuff is simply better, but Triggs could find success the same way Godley did last season to a lesser degree.

Verdict:

Triggs has the stuff to get strikeouts, and can keep the ball on the ground. He gets little recognition since he has zero pedigree and plays for a small team, which explains his 10% ownership rate in Yahoo! (as of 4/9). Out of the three pitchers analyzed in this article Triggs is the one to prioritize in redraft leagues. He won’t maintain a 2.53 ERA or 10.97 K/9 all season, but he’s worth using in all but the toughest of matchups.

 

More Weekly Lineup Prep




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

PGA

J.T. Poston Returns to John Deere Classic Looking for Another High Finish
Josh Naylor

Back in Action on Tuesday
Yordan Alvarez

Suffers Setback
Thriston Lawrence

a Decent Fit For John Deere Classic
Tom Kim

Not Finding Much to be Happy About Ahead of John Deere Classic
Nolan Arenado

Dealing with Finger Sprain
ANA

Mikael Granlund Moves to Anaheim on Three-Year Deal
Jacob Wilson

Scratched With Hamstring Soreness
NJ

Jake Allen Signs Five-Year Extension With Devils
VAN

Brock Boeser Remains in Vancouver on Seven-Year Deal
Conor Garland

Signs New Six-Year Deal with Canucks
Thatcher Demko

Signs Three-Year Extension with Canucks
Brandon Woodruff

Ready for Season Debut
Martin Fehérváry

Martin Fehervary Agrees to Seven-Year Extension with Capitals
Garrett Mitchell

Out for the Rest of the Season
MLB

Brewers-Mets Postponed on Tuesday
MLB

Tigers-Nationals Postponed on Tuesday
Zach Neto

Returns to Tuesday's Lineup
Milwaukee Bucks

Gary Harris Inks Deal With Bucks
MLB

Padres-Phillies Postponed on Tuesday
Charlotte Hornets

Mason Plumlee Heading Back to Charlotte
Si Woo Kim

is a Prohibitive Fade at John Deere Classic
Hunter Goodman

Back Behind the Dish on Tuesday
Jakob Poeltl

Agrees to a Contract Extension With Raptors
Ben Griffin

is the Appropriate Favorite at TPC Deere Run
Jason Day

is a Fine Play With Limited Upside at John Deere Classic
Vasilije Micić

Vasilije Micic Dealt to Bucks on Tuesday
Daniel Suarez

and Trackhouse Racing Parting Ways After 2025 Season
Luke Clanton

Looks to Have Another Strong Week at TPC Deere Run
Pat Connaughton

Traded to Hornets
Atlanta Hawks

Luke Kennard Lands in Atlanta
Breece Hall

Aiming to Prove He is "Still One of the Best in the League"
T.J. Watt

Steelers Not Planning to Trade T.J. Watt
Sacramento Kings

Dennis Schroder Set to Join Sacramento
Bo Bichette

Out Again on Tuesday
Trent Grisham

Likely Heading to Injured List
Boston Celtics

Luke Kornet Agrees to Contract With San Antonio
Jonas Valančiūnas

Nuggets Trade for Center Jonas Valanciunas
Royce Lewis

Twins Activate Royce Lewis
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Signs Massive Extension With Oklahoma City
Corbin Carroll

Eyeing Return Before All-Star Break
New York Knicks

Knicks Pick Up Guerschon Yabusele
Yordan Alvarez

Could Return Early Next Week
NFL

Negotiations on 18-Game Season Not Expected Until Next Year
Indiana Pacers

Myles Turner Leaves Indiana, Signs With Milwaukee
Kerry Carpenter

Shelved with Hamstring Issue
Tyler Boyd

Steelers Have Talked With Tyler Boyd
Milwaukee Bucks

Damian Lillard Waived By Milwaukee
Darren Waller

Coming Out of Retirement to Play for Dolphins
Alexander Romanov

Islanders Retain Alexander Romanov on $50 Million Contract
Andrei Kuzmenko

Signs Up for One More Year with Kings
Morgan Geekie

Signs Long-Term Extension with Bruins
Ivan Provorov

Stays in Columbus on Seven-Year Deal
Alex Pietrangelo

Stepping Away From Golden Knights for Health Reasons
Matias Maccelli

Maple Leafs Bring in Matias Maccelli
Evan Bouchard

Inks $42 Million Contract with Oilers
Vladimir Tarasenko

Wild Acquire Vladimir Tarasenko From Detroit
Patrick Kane

Signs New One-Year Deal with Red Wings
Brad Marchand

Lands Six-Year Extension
Aaron Ekblad

Remains a Panther on Eight-Year Deal
Mitchell Marner

Heads to Vegas
Randy Arozarena

Homers Twice, Plates Four Monday
Shea Langeliers

Hits Three-Run Homer In Return From Injured List Monday
Wilyer Abreu

Belts Grand Slam and Hits Inside-the-Park Home Run
Philadelphia 76ers

Trendon Watford Lands in Philadelphia
New York Knicks

Jordan Clarkson Expected to Sign With Knicks
Zack Wheeler

Tosses Eight Shutout Innings, Punches Out 10
Santi Aldama

Remains with Grizzlies
Atlanta Hawks

Nickeil Alexander-Walker Lands in Atlanta
Jalen Ramsey

Could Move Around in Pittsburgh
Los Angeles Clippers

Brook Lopez Strikes Deal With Clippers
Jonnu Smith

to be Used in Hybrid Role
Terry McLaurin

Commanders, Terry McLaurin Not Close on Contract Extension
Chicago Bulls

Tre Jones Remaining in Chicago
Michael Mayer

Raiders Not Interested in Trading Michael Mayer
Houston Rockets

Dorian Finney-Smith Signing With Rockets
Atlanta Hawks

Caris LeVert Joining Pistons
Aldrich Potgieter

Wins Rocket Mortgage Classic
Thorbjorn Olesen

Finishes Tied for 41st at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Denny McCarthy

Finishes Tied For 12th at Travelers Championship
Chris Kirk

Finishes Tied For Second at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Michael Kim

Finishes Tied for 26th at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Max Homa

Misses Cut at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Lucas Glover

Finishes Tied For Ninth at Travelers Championship
PGA

Nico Echavarria Finishes Tied For Sixth at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Pittsburgh Steelers

Rumors Still Swirling Around Potential T.J. Watt Trade
Ilia Topuria

Becomes The New Lightweight Champion
Charles Oliveira

Knocked Out At UFC 317
Kai Kara-France

Alexandre Pantoja Submits Kai Kara-France
Kai Kara-France

Submitted At UFC 317
Joshua Van

Extends His Win Streak
Tyler Boyd

Interested in Playing for Steelers
Miami Dolphins

Dolphins Now Looking to Acquire a Tight End
Brandon Royval

Drops Decision
L'Jarius Sneed

Says he's Healthy
Renato Moicano

Loses Back-To-Back Fights
Beneil Dariush

Gets Back In The Win Column
Felipe Lima

Suffers His First UFC Loss
Payton Talbott

Bounces Back
Minkah Fitzpatrick

Heading Back to Miami
Jonnu Smith

Shipped to Pittsburgh
Alex Bowman

Competitive Run Ends With Third-Place Finish at Atlanta
Erik Jones

Secures A Top-Five Finish After Adversity In Atlanta
Tyler Reddick

Collects A New Career-Best Finish At Atlanta
Jalen Ramsey

Steelers Acquiring Jalen Ramsey
Jonas Brodin

Expected to Miss Start of Next Season
TB

Conor Sheary Placed on Waivers for Contract Termination
Dante Fabbro

Stays with Blue Jackets on Four-Year Deal
Chase Elliott

Ends Winless Skid With Atlanta Victory
Brad Keselowski

Falls Short of Atlanta Victory
NFL

NFL Won't Hold Supplemental Draft This Year
Damon Arnette

Getting Second Chance With Texans
Deommodore Lenoir

Arrested for Obstruction of Justice
Carson Hocevar

Recovers From Big One to Finish 10th at Atlanta
William Byron

Caught up in Atlanta Big One but Retains Points Lead
Denny Hamlin

Top In-Season Challenge Seed Denny Hamlin Eliminated in Lap 70 Crash
Ty Dillon

Bottom Seed Ty Dillon Upsets Denny Hamlin to Advance in In-Season Challenge
Marvin Harrison Jr.

Expected to Make Second-Year Jump
Jalin Hyatt

Looking to Flip the Script in 2025
Kyle Larson

Don't Expect Kyle Larson to Win First Drafting Track Race on Saturday
Christopher Bell

Unlikely to Complete Atlanta Sweep
Brad Keselowski

Seeks Another Clutch Win for Hail-Mary Playoff Bid
Chris Buescher

Unlikely to Lead Enough to Have Much DFS Value
Alex Bowman

Qualifies Best Among Non-Fords but Unlikely to Contend at Atlanta
Ryan Preece

Will Probably Run Better Than Usual at Atlanta
Austin Dillon

Consistently Mediocre at Atlanta
Ty Gibbs

Slightly Faster Lately but Unlikely to be a Factor at Atlanta
Erik Jones

a Low-Key Strong DFS Option
Noah Gragson

Could Have DFS Value as One of the Lowest-Qualifying Fords
Riley Herbst

Unlikely to Replicate February Atlanta Finish
Charles Oliveira

Can Become A Two-Time Lightweight Champion
Ilia Topuria

A Favorite At UFC 317
Kai Kara-France

Can Become The New Flyweight Champion
Alexandre Pantoja

Set For Fourth Title Defense At UFC 317
Joshua Van

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Brandon Royval

Looks For His Third Win In A Row
Renato Moicano

Returns At UFC 317
Beneil Dariush

An Underdog At UFC 317
Payton Talbott

Looks To Bounce Back
Felipe Lima

Set To Open Up UFC 317 Main Card
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF