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Fantasy stock up, down, or stable? Mitch Blatt analyzes each NFL quarterback to evaluate where their current fantasy football stock sits prior to the 2023 season.
As we head into the 2023 NFL season, there are many questions about which quarterbacks will make a big jump, who is on the hot seat, and how old quarterbacks will look in new homes.
The pressure is on Justin Fields and Lamar Jackson to show they can win games with their arms. Time is running out for Mac Jones, and this might be Baker Mayfield's last chance to hold onto a starting job.
Whose stock is rising, and whose stock is falling? Which quarterbacks should you buy, sell, and hold?
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Buys: Fantasy Football QBs Whose Stock Is Rising
Joe Burrow (CIN)
Joe Burrow is set to become the highest-paid player in football. The Bengals are working on Burrow's big new contract extension, and he could make $55 million per year or more. Will they be able to keep Tee Higgins, too? Burrow says he wants to keep the gang together, but it could be difficult. At least Burrow will get the recognition and paycheck his play merits.
Justin Herbert (LAC)
New offensive coordinator Kellen Moore is a big upgrade over Joe Lombardi. In the four years that Moore called the plays in Dallas, the Cowboys ranked first in total yards twice and scoring offense once. Dak Prescott threw for over eight yards per attempt twice. Justin Herbert has a strong arm but has yet to use it much. He has never thrown for more than 7.5 yards per attempt in a season and didn't even hit 7.0 last year.
Aaron Rodgers (NYJ)
Aaron Rodgers reunites with his former wide receivers Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb and his former offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett in New York. However, having Hackett call plays might not be great for his stock.
But overall, the situation with the Jets is better for Rodgers. He talked publicly about his lack of trust in his wide receivers last season. The vibes from Rodgers are positive, and he has reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year Garrett Wilson to throw to.
While Rodgers still has to deal with Zach Wilson making his life miserable in the preseason, I feel Rodgers will be able to handle it.
Lamar Jackson (BAL)
Lamar Jackson got his big paycheck, ending a saga that could have resulted in him sitting out. Incoming offensive coordinator Todd Monken will design a new offense to get the most out of Jackson as a passer.
Monken was the coordinator of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' offenses during the Jameis Winston/Ryan FitzMagic years (the 19 TD/11 INT years, not the 33/30 year). His offenses ranked twice in the top 10 in yards per game and first in passing yards in 2018.
Trevor Lawrence (JAX)
Lawrence looks to carry forward the momentum he built during the second half of 2022. He finally looked like the "generational talent" he was labeled as on Draft Day 2021. T-Law has the seventh-best odds of winning MVP, and his team is 10th in the Super Bowl odds.
Dak Prescott (DAL)
Dak Prescott gets an upgrade at wide receiver with the addition of Brandin Cooks from Houston. Prescott did his best when he had two WR1-caliber options to target. Cooks might be going on 30 and only gained 699 yards in 13 games last season, but that was with Davis Mills throwing him the ball. He has gone for 1,000-plus yards in six of his past eight seasons with four teams.
The loss of offensive coordinator Kellen Moore could be a negative; however, head coach Mike McCarthy, who will take over play-calling duties, presided over multiple top-five scoring offenses in Green Bay.
Russell Wilson (DEN)
I am saying Russell Wilson's stock is rising, but rising from where? It would be shocking if, after Sean Payton takes over for Nathaniel Hackett, he has a worse season in 2023 than last year.
Will he be an elite quarterback? No. Will he be a good quarterback? Probably not. Will he be an average quarterback? Maybe?
Justin Fields (CHI)
D.J. Moore gives Justin Fields a legitimate WR1 as Fields attempts to step up his passing game this season.
Mac Jones (NE)
Mac Jones is similar to Russell Wilson in that he played poorly in a bad system last season. Matt Patricia is, by many accounts, a great football mind. But he has worked with defense and position groups most of his career, and he wasn't even technically the offensive coordinator last season, though he was calling plays.
Bill O'Brien, who has been an offensive coordinator and a play-caller throughout his career, is coming in. Unlike Wilson, however, Jones has yet to prove himself to be a quality signal-caller. He threw for 800 more yards during his rookie season than in 2022.
Sells: Fantasy Football QBs Whose Stock Is Falling
Josh Allen (BUF)
The discontent between Josh Allen and top wide receiver Stefon Diggs that was evident on the Bills' sideline during their Divisional Round playoff loss has still not been ironed out. Diggs missed the first mandatory minicamp practice. Robert Griffin III says, "This is a personal thing between Josh and Diggs."
If Allen doesn't get back on good terms with Diggs, he'll have no top-tier receiver he can trust.
Kirk Cousins (MIN)
Kirk Cousins is still throwing to Justin Jefferson this year, but for how much longer?
The 35-year-old is entering the final year of his contract, and the negotiations this offseason ended with no deal. The Vikings sought a one-year deal, while Cousins wanted a multi-year commitment.
There's still a chance they could do something next offseason. But the Vikings are in a precarious position. They greatly overperformed in the win column last year, and they have been shedding cap this offseason as they go for a "competitive rebuild." If the "competitive" part doesn't work out, they will be in a prime position to shed Cousins' onerous contract and draft one of the half-a-dozen highly-touted rookies.
Ryan Tannehill (TEN)
Ryan Tannehill had the good fortune of his team whiffing on Malik Willis in last year's draft, allowing him to keep his job last season and into this season. He's the same age as Cousins and in the final year of his contract, but he's been less effective.
The Titans took another swing at a quarterback, drafting Will Levis with the second pick of the second round this past draft. Derrick Henry is also in the final year of his contract and the final year of his 20s. Whatever happens, the Titans will likely be making a lot of changes next offseason.
Jimmy Garoppolo (LV)
It emerged in late May that Jimmy Garoppolo had surgery for the foot injury he suffered in December. He could miss most or all of training camp. While he is expected to be ready by Week 1, injury news about Jimmy G. is always scary. By now, he'll likely be injured even when he's healthy.
Missing training camp could deprive him of a chance to build chemistry with his new team.
Kyler Murray (ARI)
Kyler Murray's ACL injury could keep him out for most of this season. Murray gains more value from his legs by scrambling and buying time to throw than most quarterbacks. He has run for 2,204 yards and 23 touchdowns in four seasons. But ACL injuries often impact a player's production on the ground in their first season back, so there could be lingering impacts in 2024.
The Cardinals will likely have a very high draft pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. The GM and coach who drafted Murray are both gone. Murray's days in Arizona could be numbered if the team is in a position to draft Caleb Williams.
Holds: Fantasy Football QBs Who Remain Stable
Patrick Mahomes (KC)
JuJu Smith-Schuster left in free agency but was not a focal point of the Chiefs' offense. Travis Kelce is a year older. Regardless, Patrick Mahomes is the best quarterback on earth with any group of receivers. He remains so, and there were no major changes this offseason to displace him as the long-established No. 1.
Jalen Hurts (PHI)
Jalen Hurts made great strides last season to land himself in the elite QB tier. In 2023, his receiving targets, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert, stay together.
Tua Tagovailoa (MIA)
Tua Tagovailoa showed that he can put up mind-blowing numbers throwing to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle when he's on the field. He also wasn't on the field very much. Were the concussions he suffered just bad luck, or do they suggest that he will face continuing injury problems for the rest of his career?
Matthew Stafford (LAR)
The Rams didn't improve this offseason. But most of the big departures, including Jalen Ramsey and Bobby Wagner, were on defense. Allen Robinson did leave for Pittsburgh but didn't come close to living up to expectations. It just comes down to whether Matthew Stafford has recovered enough to where his neck, wrist, and the rest of his body aren't preventing him from getting the ball to Cooper Kupp.
Derek Carr (NO)
Derek Carr left a bad situation in Las Vegas and joined a team with exciting young receivers in Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed. Can he still become a first-ballot Hall of Famer without Nathaniel Hackett being his new play-caller?
Jared Goff (DET)
The Lions should still have a top-notch offense, with RBs Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery joining Amon-Ra St. Brown.
Kenny Pickett (PIT)
The Steelers have a lot of could-be high-level wide receivers and a good pass-catching tight end, but they need to be utilized better in Matt Canada's offense.
Question Marks: Fantasy Football QBs Whose Stock Price Is In Flux
Geno Smith (SEA)
Was last season really the beginning of Geno Smith's multi-season Pro Bowl career, or just one great season?
Deshaun Watson (CLE)
Deshaun Watson only completed 58.2% of his passes in his first season since 2020 after his suspension in 2021. It's too early to say he's washed, given he will be turning 28 early in the 2023 season. If Watson can play anywhere close to how well he played in Houston, he could have a good season in that Cleveland offense.
Brock Purdy (SF)
Brock Purdy had one of the most efficient seasons of any rookie ever and went undefeated until the NFC Championship Game. In 2023, he'll have to show that he is for real, and he'll have to do it without suffering any lingering effects of his UCL injury.
Bryce Young (CAR)
Bryce Young was good at anticipating and creating plays at Alabama, but will his height limit him in the NFL?
C.J. Stroud (HOU)
C.J. Stroud was extremely accurate at Ohio State but struggled to make quick decisions when pressured, except in the College Football Playoff against Georgia. So he needs to keep playing at the level he was at against the Bulldogs.
Jordan Love (GB)
After having been drafted in 2020, Jordan Love finally gets his shot. He looked confident and made big plays in his limited appearances last season.
Sam Howell (WAS)
The 2022 fifth-rounder was one of the NCAA leaders in big-time throws during his time at North Carolina. In his lone rookie start, a Week 18 win over the Cowboys, Sam Howell completed a 52-yard bomb to Terry McLaurin and scored touchdowns in the air and on the ground.
Desmond Ridder (ATL)
Desmond Ridder played four games at the end of last season and looked better in the final two. In Arthur Smith's offense, Ridder doesn't have to throw much, especially with Bijan Robinson having been drafted.
Baker Mayfield (TB)
The last time Baker Mayfield started a full season and threw fewer than 13 interceptions was in 2020.
Anthony Richardson (IND)
Anthony Richardson will test the theory that you can put just any super athlete behind center and eventually develop him into a passer.
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