X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Statcast Pitcher Studs and Duds - Advanced Metrics Leaders for WAR (Week 13)

Zack Wheeler - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB News, DFS Picks, Betting

Connelly Doan examines fantasy baseball pitcher risers and fallers, and whose WAR could make them adds, drops, or trade targets for Week 13.

Welcome back to another edition of RotoBaller’s Statcast Pitcher Studs and Duds article series! Each week, I will select one advanced metric, choose two pitchers with strong values and two with poor values, and analyze what those values may mean for future performance. Last week, I looked at a general metric for expected performance. This week, I'll examine an all-encompassing metric for realized performance: wins above replacement (WAR).

WAR was developed as an attempt to measure a player's relative value compared to a replacement-level player, or a readily-available player (think free agent). The calculation is rather complicated and is broken down with further explanation here for those who are interested. The gist of the metric is that the higher a player's WAR is, the more valuable a player they are.

Fantasy managers will have some difficult decisions to make regarding roster moves as they wrap up the first half of their seasons and forecast the second half. Identifying buy-low and sell-high trade candidates can sometimes be easier with broader, more-encompassing metrics. As such, WAR seems like a perfect metric to look at for Week 13!

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

WAR Studs for Fantasy Baseball

All stats are current as of Sunday morning, June 18, 2023.

Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies

5-4, 3.73 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 27.4% Strikeout Rate, 3.0 WAR

Upon initial glance, Zack Wheeler's record and ERA would suggest a disappointing season. However, his 3.0 WAR is the second-highest among qualified starters. Fantasy managers may be wondering what Wheeler's fantasy value could be for them in the second half. Should they trust his WAR?

Wheeler has had a few dud starts sprinkled throughout the season, but his underlying stats look like those of a top-tier fantasy starter. He has done a great job limiting hard contact, yet his .305 BABIP is up from the past couple of seasons, suggesting he has gotten unlucky. Further, he has maintained his strikeout stuff thanks to a strong five-pitch mix.

Wheeler's Statcast profile does not suggest a 3.73 ERA and his 3.13 xERA, 3.56 xFIP, and 3.43 SIERA all suggest that he has pitched better than his current ERA. Fantasy managers should have faith that his performance will move toward what his numbers suggest for the second half of the season. I would try to buy low on him if some fantasy managers are worried/disappointed in him.

Sonny Gray, Minnesota Twins

4-1, 2.37 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 24.8% Strikeout Rate, 2.5 WAR

Sonny Gray has had a useful fantasy career and this season has been top-notch so far. The 33-year-old has compiled a 2.37 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and 24.8% strikeout rate through 14 starts and has a 2.5 WAR to show for it. Could Gray continue to be a league-winner in the second half?

Gray's performance has been somewhat the opposite of Wheeler's. He hasn't pitched poorly by any means, but he has allowed above-average hard contact. While his expected Statcast metrics are above average, his ERA estimators of 3.70 xERA, 3.69 xFIP, and 4.08 SIERA are markedly higher than his current ERA.

Gray presents an interesting sell-high case in that he should continue to be a fantasy contributor throughout the season, but perhaps not one of the top starters as his WAR suggests. I would be fine with having Gray in my fantasy rotation for the second half, but would also happily trade him if I could get a solid return.

 

WAR Duds for Fantasy Baseball

All stats are current as of Sunday morning, June 18, 2023.

Martin Perez, Texas Rangers

6-3, 4.54 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 15.9% Strikeout Rate, 0.3 WAR

Martin Perez had a career season in 2022, leading to some hope that he could be a useful fantasy pitcher in 2023. That has not been the case, as the 32-year-old has posted a 4.54 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, and 15.9% strikeout rate through 14 starts. His 0.3 WAR seems to confirm his performance. Are there any signs that Perez could return to his 2022 form?

The bottom line is that Perez has spent most of his career outside the realm of consistent fantasy relevance. His career ERA sits at 4.44 to go with a 1.45 WHIP and 16.1% strikeout rate. His 2022 WAR was 3.8, but he has never had a WAR above 1.9 outside of that season. He will pitch relatively deep into games but offers little in terms of counting stats.

Some players are better "real-life" players than they are fantasy assets, and Perez is one of them. He brings a veteran presence to teams' rotations and will eat innings, but he tends to allow a lot of hits and walks, which leads to runs. At best, Perez could serve as a streamer in points leagues at this time.

Freddy Peralta, Milwaukee Brewers

5-6, 4.73 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 24.4% Strikeout Rate, 0.5 WAR

Injuries have kept Freddy Peralta from pitching a full workload during his career, but he has offered fantasy value when he has been on the mound. This season has been different, as his 4.73 ERA and 1.36 WHIP are much higher than his career 3.95 and 1.16 marks, respectively. With such a poor start and a 0.5 WAR, should fantasy managers have any hope he can turn things around?

There are a few positive signs under the hood. First, Peralta has done a good job limiting hard contact. His average exit velocity and hard-hit rate are in the 74th and 59th percentiles of baseball, respectively. He has also posted a career-low 38.7% fly ball rate. Despite all of this, he has a career-high 16.9% HR/FB rate and a 1.66 HR/9 rate. This discrepancy suggests bad luck for Peralta.

Second, Peralta's stuff has been good despite the relative lack of strikeouts. He has seen velocity increases on all of his pitches and has an overall 12.5% swinging strike rate in line with his career 13% mark. He has seen a bit of a dip in called strike rate but has thrown the ball in the strike zone more overall compared to last season and his career. Peralta's current strikeout rate isn't bad, but the underlying numbers suggest it could be higher.

Peralta's underlying numbers look like that of a pretty good pitcher but his peripherals have not yet aligned. He has given up a lot of homers despite limiting hard contact in the air and has seen a dip in strikeouts despite throwing the ball in the zone with swings and misses. Peralta seems like a prime buy-low candidate for the second half of the fantasy season.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Sabermetrics and Statcast Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Wan'Dale Robinson

Returns to Team Portions of Practice
Tyreek Hill

Returns to Practice on Thursday
Jake Ferguson

Injures his Back in Thursday's Practice
Jordan James

to be Out "A Couple Weeks" With Broken Finger
Parker Washington

Showing Improvement This Summer
Jaydon Blue

Leaves With Undisclosed Injury on Thursday
Matthew Stafford

to Work out Saturday, Could Return on Monday
Roschon Johnson

Battling Foot Issue
Michael Mayer

Shining in Camp
Aaron Rodgers

Won't Play in Steelers Preseason Opener
Darius Slayton

Out with Undisclosed Injury
Justin Fields

to Suit Up Saturday
MarShawn Lloyd

Doing Rehab Work on the Side
Jayden Reed

Dontayvion Wicks Not Practicing
Jordan Love

Expected to Run More in 2025
Jordan Love

to Play on Saturday Against Jets
Ladd McConkey

Still Not at Practice
Dalton Kincaid

Tweaks his Ankle on Thursday
Josh Allen

Won't Play in Preseason Opener
Marquise Brown

Still Not Practicing on Thursday
Rashee Rice

Groin Injury is Minor
Michael King

to Return Saturday
Payton Pritchard

Eager to Continue Improving
Austin Reaves

Expected to Receive Massive Pay Raise with Next Contract
Jayson Tatum

Out of Walking Boot
San Antonio Spurs

Spurs Bring in Micah Potter for Training Camp
Harrison Ingram

Re-Signs with Spurs
Zack Wheeler

Pushed Back to Sunday With Shoulder Stiffness
Roman Anthony

Agrees to Eight-Year Extension
NBA

Richaun Holmes Moves to Panathinaikos on Two-Year Deal
Maverick McNealy

Attempts to Bounce Back at Memphis
Bennedict Mathurin

to Become Regular Starter for Pacers
Darius Garland

Cavaliers Not Rushing Darius Garland Back
Kurt Kitayama

Could Get Hot at Memphis
PGA

Sungjae Im a Volatile Risk at FedEx St. Jude
Riley Minix

Signs New Two-Way Deal with Spurs
Harry Hall

Playing Well as Playoffs Approach
Chris Boucher

Signs One-Year, $3.3 Million Deal with Celtics
PGA

Chris Gotterup on Impressive Run Heading to Memphis
Georges Niang

Returns to Utah
Harris English

Ready for the Playoffs
Bud Cauley

Trying to Reverse Course at Memphis
Daniel Berger

Hoping to Contend at FedEx St. Jude
Luke Keaschall

Launches First Career Home Run
Scottie Scheffler

Continues Dominance Ahead of TPC Southwind
Collin Morikawa

Eyes Major Bounce Back at TPC Southwind
Michael Kim

Looking to Find Rhythm at TPC Southwind
PGA

Victor Hovland Eyeing Another Strong Finish at TPC Southwind
Ben Griffin

Brings High-Upside Value to TPC Southwind
Shea Langeliers

Has Three-Homer Evening Tuesday
Matt Fitzpatrick

Staying Red-Hot Entering TPC Southwind
Patrick Cantlay

Eyeing Another Strong Finish at TPC Southwind
Ludvig Aberg

Needs a Complete Week at TPC Southwind
Roman Anthony

to Return on Wednesday
Gleyber Torres

Scratched from Tuesday's Lineup
DAL

Anton Khudobin Announces Retirement
Miro Heiskanen

Back at 100 Percent Ahead of New Season
Matthew Tkachuk

Expected to Miss Start of Season
Nick Lodolo

Reds Place Nick Lodolo on Injured List With Finger Blister
NHL

Jimmy Vesey Moves Abroad
ANA

Sam Colangelo Signs Two-Year Extension
NYI

Matthew Schaefer Signs Entry-Level Contract with Islanders
NBA

Brandon Boston Jr. Inks Deal with Fenerbahce
NBA

Jeff Dowtin Jr. Joins Six-Time EuroLeague Champions
NBA

Lonnie Walker IV Agrees to Three-Year Contract with Maccabi Tel Aviv
Neemias Queta

Working Back From Knee Surgery
Johnny Juzang

Links Up with Timberwolves
Ricky Council IV

Joins Nets on One-Year Contract
Aaron Judge

To Return To Yankees On Tuesday
Michael King

Could Make Next Start With Padres
Michael Soroka

To Go On Injured List
Nick Lodolo

Exits Early With Blister
Roman Anthony

Dealing With Back Tightness
Nikola Vučević

Nikola Vucevic Not a "Buyout Candidate"
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Still Undecided About Future in Milwaukee
Max Muncy

Activated and Starting on Monday
Grayson Rodriguez

to Undergo Season-Ending Surgery
Isaac Paredes

Won't Have Surgery, Hoping to Return This Year
Daniss Jenkins

Agrees to Two-Way Deal Wth Detroit
Washington Wizards

Jaylen Martin Waived by Wizards
Tatsuro Taira

Gets Submission Win
HyunSung Park

Undefeated No More
Mateusz Rębecki

Mateusz Rebecki Drops Decision At UFC Vegas 108
Chris Duncan

Wins Three In A Row
Elves Brener

Loses Three In A Row
Esteban Ribovics

Returns To The Win Column
Nora Cornolle

Gets Dominated At UFC Vegas 108
Karol Rosa

Outclasses Nora Cornolle
J.J. Spaun

Finishes Tied for 23rd at Open Championship
Justin Thomas

Finishes Tied for 34th at Open Championship
Xander Schauffele

Finishes Tied For Seventh at Open Championship
Hideki Matsuyama

Finishes Tied for 19th at Wyndham Championship
Si Woo Kim

Misses The Cut at Wyndham Championship
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Suffers TKO Loss
Austin Riley

Braves Place Austin Riley Back on Injured List
Neil Magny

Gets Back In The Win Column
Danny Silva

Suffers His First UFC Loss
Kevin Vallejos

Remains Undefeated In The UFC
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Charges Back to Sixth at Iowa
Chase Briscoe

Finished Second Despite Being Trapped a Lap Down and Causing Two Wrecks
Brad Keselowski

Arguably Had the Best Drive at Iowa but Finished Third
Austin Dillon

Earns a Quiet Top Ten at Iowa
Kyle Larson

Poor Pit Strategy and Clash with Teammate Foil Kyle Larson at Iowa
William Byron

Stretches His Fuel to His Second Victory of 2025 At Iowa
Ryan Blaney

Continues A Strong Run of Success At Iowa
Ryan Preece

Eventful Race at Iowa Results In A Top-5 Finish
Denny Hamlin

Struggled Massively At Iowa
Tommy Edman

Likely Going on 10-Day Injured List
Austin Riley

Leaves With Abdominal Pain
Aaron Judge

on Track to Return Tuesday
Max Muncy

Could Return as Early as Monday
Chase Briscoe

Could Chase Briscoe be A Sneaky Play for Iowa Lineups?
Denny Hamlin

Is A Top Driver to Consider for DFS At Iowa
Ryan Blaney

Is A Favorite to Go Back-To-Back With Iowa Victories
Tyler Reddick

has Plenty of Upside for Sunday's Race at Iowa
Carson Hocevar

What Should Fantasy Players do with Carson Hocevar at Iowa?
Chris Buescher

Is Chris Buescher Worth Rostering For Iowa DFS Lineups?
Ty Gibbs

Could Be A Solid DFS Option for Iowa
Ryan Preece

Offers Plenty of Upside For DFS Lineups At Iowa On Sunday
NASCAR

A.J. Allmendinger Will Start in the Top 10 for the Second Week In A Row at Iowa
Austin Dillon

Could Austin Dillon Be A Decent DFS Option for Iowa?
Michael McDowell

Is Michael McDowell Worth Rostering for Iowa DFS Lineups?
Zane Smith

Should DFS Players Roster Zane Smith At Iowa?
NHL

Jakub Lauko Returns to Czechia
Nicholas Robertson

Signs One-Year Contract with Maple Leafs
Alex Laferriere

Kings Re-Sign Alex Laferriere to Three-Year Deal
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF