X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Statcast Pitcher Risers/Fallers - Early-Inning SLG (Week 7)

Statcast risers and fallers for week 7 at the SP position according to Early-Inning SLG. Andrew Le looks at starting pitchers who could be buys or sells according to sabermetrics.

Welcome back to Rotoballer's series using Statcast to extrapolate, dig into, and commiserate over data to examine pitching performances. The weekly series will be dynamic as we fine-tune our findings and enlighten ourselves on the information and tools at our disposal.

One of fantasy baseball's most gut-wrenching feelings is tuning into your pitcher starts only to see them quickly unravel early on. Dylan Bundy and Jacob deGrom are two recent headaches that come to mind. Early-inning blowups dig your ratios in a deep hole and also inflate pitch counts, reducing pitcher longevity and strikeout potential. Studies citing the Elias Sports Bureau noted that from 2000-2009, teams that scored first won around 65% of their games. In other words, when your pitcher implodes the first time around the order, the chances of a win or quality start likely goes in the dumpster.

For Week 7, we'll look at opponent slugging percentage (SLG) in the first three innings for a pitcher and compare it with SLG for the remainder of the outing. Our argument proposes that pitchers with a low SLG early in games should enjoy continued or better fantasy success across a full season. Likewise, if your starters are experiencing major problems with early-inning drama, it might be worth reconsidering their place in your roster. For reference, the median SLG for the first three innings of our qualified pitcher pool is .381. From the fourth inning onwards, the median SLG jumps to .414.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Early-Inning Cruisers

All stats as of May 15 for 128 qualified pitchers that have thrown over 500 pitches

Justin Verlander, Houston Astros (4-2, 1.21 ERA, 0.72 WHIP, 11.61 K/9)

Justin Verlander has been one of the best pitchers in both realms of baseball this season, so it shouldn't surprise anyone that he holds the third-lowest opponent SLG of .191 in the first three innings. Verlander's ability to breeze through a lineup the first time around has allowed him to go six-plus innings and tally quality starts in eight of nine outings. His career best strikeout pace and excellent 5.92 K/BB has resulted in an extraordinary 89.1% LOB%.

What makes Verlander more tough is his SLG climbs to just .302 after the third inning, which is 15th-best in the majors. His velocity this season is stable year-on-year and the pitch values for his three primary pitches all grade very favorably. Despite a depressed .206 BABIP and the aforementioned elevated LOB%, Verlander's 2.24 FIP suggests he's really been that good.

Obviously Verlander is universally owned in fantasy leagues, but he should continue to be viewed as a top-5 pitcher. Jealous owners eager for his services should expect to pay top dollar in the trade market. Verlander owners looking to improve in other categories should demand top-tier assets in return. The SLG data supports Verlander's durability to eat up innings, rack up strikeouts and return elite ratios for the remainder of the season.

Patrick Corbin, Arizona Diamondbacks (4-1, 2.53 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 11.84 K/9)

Like Verlander, Patrick Corbin has also been exceptional. He's ridden an MLB 11th-best .244 SLG in the first three innings to five quality starts in nine tries. He suffered his first hiccup on May 14 (6 IP, 4 ER), but is still easily on pace for the best season of his six-year career.

Corbin sees modest deterioration in his SLG profile after the third inning, but the .342 clip still puts him firmly in the top third of pitchers. The spike in SLG could explain why he's been pulled before completing six innings three times despite decent headline numbers. The strikeouts and pitch count restrictions could be other reasons. Either way, Corbin's ninth-best 2.72 FIP indicates the disparity between his splits are not alarming.

One anomaly with Corbin is a 39.8% Hard% that contradicts a .238 BABIP. His 16.7% HR/FB is also three points above his normal rates. These could be arguing points for managers looking for a discount on Corbin in trade negotiations. However, Corbin was a late-round steal for keen fantasy drafters in March and has probably returned near-full value. The peripherals support the sustainability of his performance, and it always feels great to play with house money.

Other strong starters: Jacob deGrom (NYM, .183 early-inning SLG), Tyson Ross (SD, .226), Kyle Gibson (MIN, .241)

 

Perilous Starters

Chris Archer, Tampa Bay Rays (2-3, 5.64 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 8.89 K/9)

No Chris Archer owners need a reminder of his disaster season, but that's just what I'll do. Archer has been a disaster. He's posted only three quality starts and has allowed four earned runs or more five times in nine outings. Unsurprisingly, his .550 early-inning SLG is the 11th-worst mark in baseball.

Archer tends to settle down after three innings, but his .412 SLG is still just league average. While his velocity seems fine and he exhibits good control (2.56 BB/9), he's getting hit early and often. A 41.9% Hard% has resulted in the league's seventh-highest BAA of .278. One theory is that Archer's pitched too frequently in the zone, which has led to his lowest strikeout rate and highest Z-Contact% (84.5%) since 2014.

Archer sympathizers could point to a .331 BABIP, but that figure is in-line with his .325 last season. A 4.30 FIP likely won't have many value/upside trade partners eager to deal. One serious red flag on Archer is a Hard% that's increased every season since 2013, defending the excessive opponent SLG. Unless he goes back to striking out hitters, his batted-ball characteristics and high contact rates imply batters will continue making him pay for mistakes. Archer's intrinsic value has been impaired and fantasy owners should take that into account when assessing him in the marketplace.

Luis Castillo, Cincinnati Reds (3-4, 6.02 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 8.94 K/9)

There are probably two polar opposite takes on Luis Castillo, the drafters who tore their hair out to his 7.85 ERA in April and the savvy owners that bought low on said ERA and are now reaping the benefits. Objectively, Castillo was horrible in April and has recovered admirably through three May starts. Amidst the frenzy, he's held a .543 early-inning SLG which is 15th-highest in the majors.

In fairness, one April 27 outing magnifies Castillo's early-inning woes (1 IP, 5 ER), but a .449 SLG after the third inning is still bottom-half in the league. Castillo came out blazing last season with a 97.5 MPH average fastball in 15 starts, but that velocity has declined to 95.3 MPH this season. The fastball deceleration has weakened his supporting arsenal and lowered his pitch values across the board. Accordingly, his Hard% (37.9%) and HR/FB (22.2%) have risen sharply in 2018.

Castillo is just 25 years old so the learning curve could persist throughout the season. Owners could conceivably take advantage of his recent success for a steadier rotation arm. Unlike Archer, Castillo's potential is palatable so the trade market could provide room for opportunity. But unless he avoids being pounded early in games, his 4.93 FIP is certainly something fantasy players can do without.

Other poor starters: Kenta Maeda (LAD, .560 early-inning SLG), Chase Anderson (MIL, .500), J.A. Happ (.495)

 

More Sabermetrics & Fantasy Baseball Strategy




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Vitor Petrino

Set For His Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Set To Open Up UFC Nashville Main Card
Junior Tafa

Set For Light-Heavyweight Bout
Alex Bregman

Will Return to Red Sox This Weekend
Chris Sale

Braves Won't Consider Trading Chris Sale
Clarke Schmidt

to Undergo Season-Ending Elbow Surgery on Friday
Nick Nash

Unlikely to Make Falcons Active Roster
Lane Johnson

in No Rush To Retire
Jalen Williams

Signs Contract Extension With Thunder
Blake Corum

has "Gotten His Speed Back"
Jarquez Hunter

Picking Up Rams Offense Quickly
Alijah Martin

Agrees to Two-Way Deal With Raptors
Tristan Vukcevic

Set to Return to Washington
Kirk Cousins

Feels Misled by Falcons
Bijan Robinson

Says Falcons Have "Outlandish Goals" for the Running Game
Luther Burden III

Bears Expect Luther Burden III to be Ready for Training Camp
Cole Kmet

an Unlikely Trade Piece
Tony Pollard

Titans Hope to Balance Rushing Attack With Tony Pollard, Tyjae Spears
Byron Buxton

Sitting Thursday
Quentin Johnston

Not Assured of Starting Role
Cordarrelle Patterson

on the Roster Bubble in Pittsburgh?
Shedeur Sanders

Not Assured of Roster Spot in Cleveland?
Wan'Dale Robinson

Hoping For More Downfield Opportunities
Anfernee Simons

Celtics Are "Actively Trying to Trade" Anfernee Simons
NBA

Alex Ducas Heading to Australia
Dominick Barlow

Inks Two-Way Deal With 76ers
Jordan McLaughlin

Spurs Re-Sign Jordan McLaughlin to One-Year Deal
Dylan Harper

Out Thursday, Expected to Play Saturday
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Homers Twice on Wednesday
Mike Trout

Homers Twice in Win Over Rangers
Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Leads Yankees to Victory
Salvador Perez

Crushes Two Homers in Win
Cleveland Browns

Greg Newsome on the Trade Block?
VJ Edgecombe

Diagnosed with a Sprained Thumb
Zach Tom

An Extension Candidate in Green Bay
Devin Booker

Agrees to Extension with Phoenix
Trevor Williams

to Undergo Season-Ending Elbow Surgery
Kyren Williams

Rams Not Willing to Pay Kyren Williams Top-Market Money?
Byron Buxton

Exits After Hit-by-Pitch, X-Rays Negative
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Playing on Wednesday
Alex Bregman

has "Really Good Chance" to Return Before All-Star Break
Christian Kirk

the No. 2 WR in Houston?
Teoscar Hernández

Teoscar Hernandez Expected to Return on Friday
Jerome Ford

the Likely Starter for Cleveland to Begin 2025
Chig Okonkwo

"Poised" for Best Season of Career
Xavier Watts

Falcons High on Xavier Watts
Xavier Restrepo

Training With Star Wideouts
Walter Clayton Jr.

Leads Jazz to Summer League Win
Carter Bryant

Struggles in Summer League Loss
Kyle Filipowski

Drops a Double-Double in Summer League Action on Tuesday
Oklahoma City Thunder

Malevy Leons Logs Impressive Summer League Outing on Tuesday
Dalton Knecht

Collects 25 Points in Lakers Summer League Win
Los Angeles Lakers

Darius Bazley Drops 27 Points in Summer League on Tuesday
Gary Woodland

Looking to Find Rhythm at Scottish Open
Aaron Rai

Brings Consistent Play to Scottish Open
Maverick McNealy

a Solid Value Play at Scottish Open
Aldrich Potgieter

Making Scottish Open Debut
Tom Kim

Looks to Rebound at Scottish Open
Brian Harman

a Safe Option at Scottish Open
Luke Clanton

a Sneaky Value Play at Scottish Open
Sam Burns

Looking to Stay Hot at Scottish Open
Chet Holmgren

Agrees to Rookie Max Extension
Alex Bregman

Not Returning Wednesday
Jhoan Duran

Unavailable Due to Illness
Shane McClanahan

Tosses Clean Frame in First Rehab Appearance
Jacob Wilson

Day-to-Day After HBP
Nicolai Hojgaard

May Feel More at Home in Europe
Harry Hall

Showing Fine Form Heading to Scotland
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. to be Reassessed Wednesday
Ryan Fox

Playing Well Since Early Spring Struggles
Malaki Branham

Traded to Washington
Max Greyserman

has Solid History at the Genesis Scottish Open
Blake Wesley

Moves to Washington
Harris English

Aims High for Scotland Next
Corey Conners

Primed for the Genesis Scottish Open
Kelly Olynyk

on the Move Again
Daniel Brown

Attempts the Scottish Swing Again
Anthony Davis

Recovering From Eye Surgery
Jacob Bridgeman

Needs Putter to Work at Genesis Scottish Open
Cal Raleigh

Continues Historic Homer Pace Tuesday
Jacob Wilson

Exits Early On Tuesday With Left Hand Contusion
Scottie Scheffler

Headlines Field at Genesis Scottish Open
Rory McIlroy

a Smart Play for Scottish Open
Adam Scott

Looking to Build on History at The Renaissance Club
NASCAR

Sepp Straka Not Likely to Find Momentum at Scottish Open
Justin Rose

Hopes Month Hiatus Helps Him Bounce Back at Scottish Open
Luis Garcia

Fans Four in Rehab Outing
NHL

Tyler Johnson Retires After 13 NHL Seasons
Jack McBain

Inks New Five-Year Deal with Mammoth
Cam York

Re-Signs with Flyers for Five Years
Jake Knapp

Fits the Mold for Success at The Renaissance Club
Ty Gibbs

Finishes Second at Chicago and Advances in In-Season Challenge
Alex Bowman

Defeats Bubba Wallace in In-Season Challenge, but Not Without Controversy
Alex Bowman

Bubba Wallace Wrecked by Alex Bowman Again, Putting Playoffs in Doubt
Michael McDowell

Throttle Failure Ends Michael McDowell's Chances to Win at Chicago
Austin Hill

Earns First NASCAR Cup Series Top Ten at Chicago
Tyler Reddick

Scores a Strong Third-Place Run at Chicago
Kyle Busch

Matches his Best Career Finish At Chicago on Sunday
Denny Hamlin

Fights his Way to a Top-5 Finish at Chicago
William Byron

has his Worst Weekend of the Season at Chicago
Sonny Milano

on Track to Be Ready for Training Camp
Jakub Dobes

Signs Two-Year Deal with Canadiens
NHL

Hendrix Lapierre Signs One-Year Deal with Capitals
Carson Hocevar

Should DFS Players Consider Carson Hocevar for Chicago Lineups?
Tye Kartye

Kraken Re-Sign Tye Kartye for Two Years
Ross Chastain

May be A Decent DFS Option for Chicago Lineups
Dmitri Voronkov

Signs Two-Year, $8.35 Million Extension with Blue Jackets
Ryan Preece

Should DFS Players Roster Ryan Preece at Chicago?
Austin Dillon

Is Too Great of A Risk to Add to Chicago Lineups
Zane Smith

Is A Value Play Worth Rostering At Chicago
Austin Hill

is A Favorable Value Option for Chicago DFS Lineups
Ty Dillon

Is Ty Dillon A Decent Driver to Add For NASCAR DFS At Chicago?
William Byron

Qualifying Crash Makes William Byron a Likely DFS Must-Have
Alex Bowman

Should Finish Well, but Probably Costs Too Much for Serious DFS Consideration
Joey Logano

Has Been Relatively Mediocre on Road Courses Lately
Ryan Blaney

Doesn't Really Fit Neatly into Optimal DFS Lineups
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF