Finding MLB Starting Pitcher Breakouts - Pitch Mix Analysis and Mid-Season Changes

Eric identifies starting pitcher breakouts and risers for fantasy baseball. He analyzes their pitch mixes and mid-season changes, to find pitchers on the rise.

I seem to have found a niche covering pitch mixes and using it to evaluate where pitchers have avenues for growth or warning signs for regression. As a former catcher, I'm used to thinking about pitch sequencing and how pitches work in tandem to attack hitters at different parts of the strike zone. My goal has been to impart some of that knowledge by not just saying, "this pitcher is good because of these stats," but by identifying keys we can all watch for in order to see when a pitcher might be evolving into one we want to target or when a pitcher is simply getting lucky and should be avoided or perhaps traded away.

Early in the season, I was focusing on pitchers who were throwing new pitches, but now that we are halfway through the season, I'm going to transition to looking at pitchers who are shifting their pitch mix. I did this a couple of weeks ago when I examined how Robbie Ray had introduced a sinker. I looked at how that impacted his overall arsenal and what that might mean for his fantasy production going forward: fewer strikeouts but more stable ratios and better overall performance.

I'll continue that type of analysis in this series, looking at pitchers who have made a clear change to their pitch mix during the 2022 season and evaluating how that change could impact their performance this season (thanks to Jon Anderson for creating the database that allows me to track this). I'll do that by exploring the changes we can already see taking place, and the ones we should continue to look out for, and then I'll end by trying to give you a sense of what type of fantasy performance we can expect going forward. I anticipate this being a series we'll continue over the next month or so, so let's get started.

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Josiah Gray, Washington Nationals - Slider

I want to start with Josiah Gray because the aforementioned fellow Rotoballer Jon Anderson recently covered Gray in his Substack (which is excellent by the way, and you need to check it out). In his write-up, Jon mentioned that Gray has seemed to be improving his command, lowering his walk rate to 7.4% since June 1st, while also posting a 30.4% strikeout rate. The 30% strikeout rate and sub-8% walk rate puts him in the company of pitchers like Shane McClanahan, Shohei Ohtani, Gerrit Cole, Julio Urias, and Spencer Strider, so we certainly love to see that.

However, one thing that Jon didn't mention is also that Gray's success in June also coincided with a massive change to his pitch mix. In April, Gray was throwing his slider just 19.9% of the time, but that number jumped to 34.5% in June. The additional slider usage has been mainly at the expense of the fastball, which Gray reduced from 46.7% down to 36.5% in June. However, he also slightly reduced the curve, which went from his second most-used pitch at 28.5% to his third most-used pitch at 25.3.

OK, so Gray has limited his four-seam use and upped his slider usage, but why should you care? Good question. Well, for starters, the slider has a 22.2% swinging-strike rate (SwStr%) while the fastball has a 7.7% SwStr%. The slider also has a 36.7% CSW and just 3.6% barrel rate allowed, while the fastball has a 24.5% CSW and 17.4% barrel rate allowed. Those are some pretty drastic differences, and it's clear that we want to see more slider and less fastball.

Considering Gray also has a good curveball (15.8% SwStr%, 32.7% CSW), relying heavily on those two off-speed pitches is good for him. The fastball has even performed better when used less, registering just a .185 BAA and .231 xBA in June although it did still have a .609 xSLG. It's simply not a really good pitch, and Gray is able to hide it better or use it more effectively when it's used sparingly. Since Gray barely uses his change-up, it means that the young right-hander will continue to walk a tight rope with two good breaking balls and a subpar fastball, so he'll need to be smart about this fastball usage in order to maintain any consistent success.

As you saw in June, this can work for him. But his schedule also wasn't overly tough during that stretch with games against Texas, Philadelphia, Miami, and Cincinnati. He got tagged by those same Marlins for six earned runs in 5.2 innings during his first start in July, but then responded by striking out 11 Phillies over six innings on July 6th. Mercurial to say the least.

To me, that's the best indicator of the type of pitcher Josiah Gray will be for now. His plus off-speed pitches give him the ability to miss bats and have tremendous fantasy outings, but when he doesn't have a great command of those offerings (like on July 1st), he doesn't yet have a deep enough arsenal to avoid a tough outing. Still, even with that poor outing factored in, he has a 2.78 ERA, 3.35 xFIP, 3.16 SIERA, 23% K-BB%, and 14% SwStr% over his last six starts, which tells you that the baseline of talent is strong enough that he can remain an asset with those hiccups and should be a pitcher you're trying to acquire for the second half of the season (just don't expect too many wins).

Yu Darvish, San Diego Padres - Cutter

A one-time ace, Darvish seems to be a forgotten man this year; in part because of the emergence of his teammate Joe Musgrove as a bonafide stud. The 35-year-old Darvish has been fine in his own right, posting a 3.38 ERA, 3.97 xFIP, 3.73 SIERA, 17.5% K-BB%, and 11.6% SwStr%. It's all fine. Nothing special, but solid and you're certainly not complaining.

However, the man of perhaps too many pitches has started to rely on one a little more than usual over the summer. After starting the season by not throwing any pitch more than 32% of the time, Darvish has begun to lean into his cutter more, throwing it 44.1% of the time in June.

The increased reliance on the cutter is a good thing for many reasons. For starters, the 12.7% SwStr% on the pitch is the best of Darvish's main offerings, and the 37.3% CSW is by far the best of any of his pitches. The cutter is also inducing a 44.4% groundball rate and just a 5.1% barrel rate, also the best of any of his pitches. In short, the cutter is Darvish's best pitch so using it more is a good thing for him.

He has also cut back on the four-seam fastball as he's using his cutter more. While the four-seam isn't a bad pitch for Darvish, it has just a 9.9% SwStr% and allows a 15.1% barrel rate, the worst of any of his offerings. Thus, using it less often is certainly a good thing for the veteran in terms of both added strikeouts but also limiting hard contact.

Since making the change to a more cutter-heavy approach on May 25th, Darvish has thrown 48 innings, registering a 3.17 ERA, 13.5% SwStr%, 31.4% CSW, and 21.6% K-BB% with just a .207 batting average against. Those are pretty solid results that are similar over the same span to Alek Manoah, Nestor Cortes, Luis Severino, and better than Kyle Wright, Shane Bieber, and Pablo Lopez. All of which is to say that Darvish may be setting himself up to finish as a strong SP2 in fantasy.

Hunter Greene, Cincinnati Reds - Slider

Hunter Greene gained fame because of his consistent triple-digit fastball. In April, he broke the Major League record for most fastballs thrown over 100 mph in a single game. However, he's on this list because he's now throwing his fastball less, and we like to see that.

Despite possessing that tremendous fastball, the rookie has learned the harsh truth that velocity alone can only get you so far in the big leagues. On the season, Greene's fastball is allowing a .301 batting average against, a .644 slugging percentage, and has given up 16 home runs. That's not great in 17 starts.

Part of the reason for that could be location. Greene likely never needed pinpoint command of his fastball in the minor leagues because that velocity was enough to dominate inexperienced hitters. That's not the case with Major Leaguers, and you can see below that Greene keeps his fastball down the middle of the plate. While he does also use the top part of the zone, that red is a bit too centrally-located for me.

However, you can also see from that image above that Greene has a pretty good command of his slider, which is important because it's basically his own secondary pitch (unless you're counting a changeup that he throws 5% of the time). On the season, Greene's slider has a 17.8% SwStr%, 33.7% CSW, 5.9% barrel rate allowed, .166 batting average against, and .325 slugging percentage allowed.

It's easily his best pitch, despite the hype of the fastball.

That's why it's music to our ears that Greene upped the slider rate to 47.5% in June after throwing it just 31.2% of the time in April. Greene really started making the change in the middle of May, and since that time, he's posted a 21% K-BB%, 15.1% SwStr%, and a 29.5% CSW. He does have a 4.69 ERA over that span, but his 3.87 xFIP and 3.54 SIERA suggest that he should have earned some better results.

While the increased reliance on the slider is nice, Greene will remain slightly volatile because his fastball is still getting hit hard. Even after the pitch mix shift in the middle of May, Greene is still allowing an 11.9% barrel rate on the four-seam and gives up a home run on it every 16 plate appearances, which is in part due to the hitter-friendly nature of Great American Ballpark. However, Greene not showcasing that change-up much at all means that hitters can sit fastball if he's not locating his slider well on a given day or if he falls behind in the count.

That puts a lot of pressure on his slider to avoid blow-up starts.

As a result, Greene is not a full-on breakout pitcher yet, but if he can locate the fastball better to reduce the home run issues, gain more comfort in the change-up, and/or continue to rely on the slider more, we could see him turn into a high 3.00 or low 4.00 ERA arm in the second half of the season with his massive strikeout upside.

Aaron Civale, Cleveland Guardians - Sinker

As we've discussed many times in these articles, sometimes a good pitch mix change doesn't need to be about throwing a certain pitch more often but can be about throwing a mediocre pitch less. That's the case for Aaron Civale who, in the middle of May, made the decision to move away from his four-seam fastball and dial up the usage of his sinker.

Since that start in the middle of May, Civale (who did spend some time on the IL) has registered a 3.18 ERA, supported by a 3.47 xFIP and 3.67 SIERA. He has a 14.9% K-BB% and has allowed a 6.1% barrel rate and 35.4% hard-hit rate, both of which are the best in the Cleveland rotation over that span.

Now, the increased reliance on the sinker hasn't upped Civale's swing-and-miss, but that's just the nature of the sinker. The pitch has a 45.5% groundball rate allowed and is designed to induce weak balls in play or even just hard-hit balls on the ground, which do less damage than those in the air. Thus, it's not the pitch itself that makes Civale relevant but how the pitch plays with his entire arsenal.

For starters, the introduction of the sinker has meant far less of the four-seam fastball. That's a good thing since, on the season, the four-seam has allowed a .389 batting average against, .611 slugging percentage, and 14.3% barrel rate. It also has the exact same inept 3.1% SwStr% that the sinker does, so the pitch doesn't miss more bats despite giving up far more hard contact.

Civale now uses the sinker as a strike pitch, trying to induce groundballs and also set up his cutter and curveball, which are the only two other pitches he consistently uses now. Since the cutter has a 12.3% SwStr% on the season and the curve has a 20.1% mark, they possess enough swing-and-miss ability to offset the sinker.

You can see from the Spin Direction graphics below how these pitches work together.

The sinker and the cutter both have 60-degree deviations, but they break in opposite directions, which allows the two pitches to play well off of one another. This is part of the reason why the cutter has just a 6.1% barrel rate allowed (down from 9.4%) as Civale has relied on the sinker more. The curve then attacks the bottom part of the zone with a 60-degree deviation as well and even though it doesn't truly mirror the sinker, the fact that they move with a similar horizontal break in opposite directions makes the sinker a better pairing for the curve than the four-seam.

Civale is never going to miss tons of bats, and his stats since using the sinker aren't electric, but it has been just five starts with three coming against the Yankees, Red Sox, and Twins, so he has certainly been tested. The Yankees and Red Sox both got to him, which likely means that Civale remains a pitcher you can't play in all match-ups; however, the new pitch mix should make those blow-up starts more infrequent, which means Civale could be a ratio-based hold in 15-team leagues where you can pick and choose when to deploy him.

Considering how he was pitching early in the season, viewing him as a mid-3.00 ERA pitcher is a pretty large boost for him.

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