Should I Draft Jaxson Dart or Tyler Shough? 2025 Dynasty Rookie Draft Analysis

by Dave Ventresca

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Should you draft Jaxson Dart or Tyler Shough in 2025 dynasty fantasy football rookie drafts? Dave breaks down the profiles and landing spots for Dart and Shough.

In This Article hide

2. Should I Draft Tyler Shough In Dynasty Rookie Drafts?

3. Should I Draft Jaxson Dart or Tyler Shough?

4. More Fantasy Football Analysis

We all know the importance of having an elite starting quarterback in the NFL. The teams that have one constantly find themselves in championship contention. This concept often applies in dynasty football leagues as well. Admittedly, though, quarterbacks are more important in superflex dynasty leagues than single quarterback leagues. That’s why it’s imperative to find several high-end quarterbacks to remain competitive in a superflex league.

There are several signal-callers available to dynasty gamers in rookie drafts this year. Jaxson Dart and Tyler Shough are two options for quarterback-needy owners. Both were selected in the first 40 picks of the NFL Draft and have pros and cons to their game. But which one should dynasty gamers select in their rookie drafts?

Make sure you’re following RotoBaller on X and check out RotoBaller.com for all your fantasy football needs. Let’s take a few minutes and discuss which player dynasty gamers should select in their 2025 dynasty rookie drafts.

Editor's Note: Explore RotoBaller’s Dynasty Fantasy Football hub for year-round dynasty rankings, trade tips, rookie analysis, and long-term player outlooks. Dominate your league with our sleepers, stash targets, and dynasty draft advice. Click here for Dynasty rankings and strategy.

Should I Draft Jaxson Dart In Dynasty Rookie Drafts?

Dart was rumored to be taken in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft. Those rumors were ultimately proven true when the New York Giants traded up to select Dart with the 25th overall pick.

The @Giants trade back into the first round to get their QB.

Jaxson Dart is headed to the Big Apple! pic.twitter.com/Ckdks9uDEd

— NFL Network (@nflnetwork) April 25, 2025

New York desperately needed a young quarterback, and the team hopes they’ve found their man in Dart. He has an NFL-caliber arm and displayed some impressive traits during his time at the University of Mississippi.

Jaxson Dart.

QB1 kind of throw here.

Wow. pic.twitter.com/VjXiZuExVk

— Travis May (@FF_TravisM) January 3, 2025

Jaxson Dart Analytical Profile

Let’s do a quick evaluation of some of Dart’s advanced metrics courtesy of the folks at PFF. Among 93 collegiate passers with at least 300 dropbacks, Dart ranked:

First in PFF passing grade
11th in adjusted completion percentage
T-6th in big-time throws
T-2nd in big-time throw percentage

Dart fared quite well in several of the above metrics. It should be no surprise to hear that he had a very strong 2024 season. He threw for over 4,200 yards and 29 passing touchdowns against just six interceptions. Dart also scored another three touchdowns on the ground for good measure.

Watch: @OleMissFB QB Jaxson Dart (@JaxsonDart) hit 19.4 mph on this 29-yard touchdown. #ReelAnalytics #HottyToddy

🎥: @ESPNCFB

🔗 https://t.co/orrD05a6an pic.twitter.com/5vdiRua3KR

— Reel Analytics (@RAanalytics) October 24, 2023

The New Giants’ signal-caller played quite well under pressure and was PFF’s ninth-highest graded passer when pressured. This is great as it shows Dart is not easily rattled and could still process/make accurate throws when under duress. That’s a trait that should serve him well in the NFL.

That is not to say that Dart is perfect. He does struggle with consistency and decision-making. However, it’s easy to see why NFL evaluators liked what they saw and why he was ultimately a first-round pick.

Long-term Outlook

Dart must improve in certain areas to become a franchise quarterback in the NFL. However, his rushing ability offers dynasty gamers a nice floor. Dart ran for over 1,500 rushing yards during his collegiate career, including a season with over 600 rushing yards in 2022.

He’s got sneaky upside as a rusher, especially with Brian Daboll as his play-caller. Remember, Daboll was the Buffalo Bills' offensive coordinator when the team drafted Josh Allen, and he did not hesitate to use Allen’s legs.

While Daboll’s presence seems like good news for Dart, we must point out that Daboll and general manager Joe Schoen enter 2025 firmly on the hot seat following a disastrous 2024 season. Ownership has made it known that they must see improvement this year, or the head coach and general manager are gone.

New York is not expected to be competitive this year, so there’s a very real possibility Dart will enter the 2026 season with a different regime than the one that drafted him. How that will play out for Dart is anybody’s guess, so there is some long-term risk in selecting him.

Should I Draft Jaxson Dart?

Despite that risk, Dart’s upside makes him worthy of a selection at the round one-two turn of superflex rookie drafts. Quarterbacks are always in high demand in superflex leagues. The cheapest place to get one remains the rookie draft.

Should I Draft Tyler Shough In Dynasty Rookie Drafts?

The New Orleans Saints selected Shough with the 40th pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. He is an older prospect and will turn 26 during the season. However, he has traits NFL teams covet and was supposedly very high on a few teams’ draft boards.

Tyler Shough finds Ja'Corey Brooks for the first TD of the season 🔥

📺 @accnetwork #GoCards pic.twitter.com/wwP6HopMm0

— Louisville Football (@LouisvilleFB) August 31, 2024

Tyler Shough Analytical Profile

Let’s do a quick evaluation of some of Shough’s advanced metrics courtesy of the folks at PFF. Among 93 collegiate passers with at least 300 dropbacks, Shough finished:

Fifth in PFF passing grade
25th in adjusted completion percentage
T-13th in big-time throws
T-20th in big-time throws percentage

Shough graded out well across most of the above metrics, but he appears to have a major flaw that could limit him at the NFL level. Shough ranked just 129th among all FBS passers in average time to throw. This means he holds onto the ball way too long at times. That will be a significant problem in the NFL, where defenders close in on the quarterback even faster than at the collegiate level.

Long-term Outlook

Working against Shough is the fact that he was taken in Round 2 of the NFL Draft. That might not seem bad on the surface, but the reality is that quarterbacks with second-round draft capital have a wide range of outcomes. It ranges from Jalen Hurts, who has become a Super Bowl-winning franchise quarterback, to Will Levis/Kyle Trask, neither of whom is their team’s starter, one of whom (Trask) has yet even to start a game in his career.

On top of this uncertainty for Shough is the supposedly powerful 2026 quarterback class. It’s expected that next year’s draft will offer a much better selection of prospects for quarterback-needy teams than the 2025 NFL Draft. If New Orleans finds itself in a position to take a blue-chip quarterback prospect, a second-round rookie is unlikely to stand in its way. It is worth noting that Derek Carr retired over the weekend, and Shough could emerge as the Saints' QB1 this year. However, he will need to show real promise for the team to stick with him as the starter past the 2025 season.

When you put it all together, there are a lot of factors working against Shough. Nothing we’ve mentioned will stand in his way if he's genuinely a franchise signal-caller. However, at this time, it’s impossible to say he is a franchise quarterback.

Now, that’s the case for all rookie quarterbacks when they first enter the league. But fair or not, quarterbacks taken with elite draft capital are given multiple chances to succeed before teams pull the plug, while those with lower draft capital are discarded faster than a used tissue. Shough already has this working against him.

Should I Draft Tyler Shough?

For fantasy football purposes, Shough doesn't offer much as a rusher. He only ran for 733 rushing yards across seven (yes, seven) collegiate seasons. That puts a cap on his fantasy ceiling right off the bat.

The NFL's “Van Wilder” is worth a shot in the middle of the third round of Superflex rookie drafts. However, given all the question marks about his future and lack of rushing upside, it is not recommended to take him any earlier.