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John's running back start 'em, sit 'em picks for fantasy football playoffs - Week 16 (2024). Expert RB lineups advice for fantasy football start/sit decisions.
It's hard to make it far without good running back production in the fantasy football playoffs. RB is a very matchup-dependent position since it's harder to predict target volume for them than it is for WRs, and sometimes run games can get shut down completely.
It's the most important position to hit on in the draft, especially in PPR formats. And that's even more true this year than in previous seasons -- the massive slew of wide receiver injuries and the inexplicable underperformance of elite WRs like Philadelphia Eagles wideout A.J. Brown has made nailing the RB position crucial this season.
Let's look at some RBs you should fire up and others you should leave on the bench. Some of these picks will be less obvious to help people with tough start-sit decisions on some of their players rather than just stating the obvious. The same goes for the sit decisions -- there's no point in telling you to sit Alexander Mattison (neck), for example.
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Week 16 Starts - Fantasy Football Booms
Tyrone Tracy Jr. - RB, New York Giants at Atlanta Falcons
Tracy (ankle) is dealing with an ankle issue, but this section assumes that he'll be able to play. Keep an eye on his practice reports, though. Anyway, in PPR formats, often the most important thing for a back to get for consistent fantasy production is targets.
And with quarterback Drew Lock (heel/elbow) set to start in Week 16, that bodes very well for Tracy's potential receiving workload. Lock chucked the ball to Tracy 10 times the last time both took the field together, and he caught five of those passes for 38 yards. He also saw a much higher snap percentage in that game.
Tyrone Tracy with a BIG touchdown run! If the Giants hand him the ball every single down, they have a better chance of winning this football game.
Giants 100% found a steal in their 5th round rookie #NYG pic.twitter.com/hSZmGkWCmz
— Alex Wilson (@AlexWilsonESM) November 10, 2024
He's an explosive athlete and great with the ball in his hands. His elusiveness and lateral agility make him a solid target in the passing game, and thankfully, Lock recognizes this. In PPR, Tracy is set up well against an Atlanta Falcons team that allows the most receptions per game to opposing running backs.
Lock is playing behind a Swiss cheese group of walking turnstiles, so he'll be motivated to dump it off to the rookie.
James Conner - RB, Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers
You should Start Conner. But he gets a bit of a wild matchup against the Carolina Panthers, who have had a terrible run defense this season ever since losing Pro Bowl defensive tackle Derrick Brown (knee) to a season-ending injury. Brown was the team's best run defender.
They've been wholly unable to do anything about opposing run games, having allowed the most PPR fantasy points per game to opposing running backs this year. They give up 5.0 yards per carry to opposing rushers. And Conner is the clear workhorse RB in a run-first offense with an injured backup.
if you give him an inch he will run a mile 🏃@JamesConner_ + #ProBowlVote pic.twitter.com/38yTwPbPJm
— Arizona Cardinals (@AZCardinals) December 19, 2024
He scored 30.8 PPR fantasy points in Week 15. He should get more than 20 this week as well. He's a smash start. He should finish as a top-5 RB this week.
Jahmyr Gibbs - RB, Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears
This is another obvious one. Gibbs should see an uptick in work now that RB David Montgomery (knee) won't be playing this week. He could easily finish as the best RB in fantasy football over the last few weeks of the season. He has elite speed and fantastic pass-catching ability, is in a highly productive offense, and runs behind one of the best offensive lines in the NFL.
JAHMYR GIBBS GOES 70 YARDS TO THE HOUSE 💨
(via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/E0kw4DLrx2
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) October 27, 2024
He might just be your league winner.
Joe Mixon - RB, Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs
Sure, Mixon may have been mediocre to just plain bad in his last two weeks, but you shouldn't risk sitting an RB that gets the kind of volume he does. It's not like the Chiefs have an elite offense anymore, so the game script should remain in favor of a run-heavy offensive plan.
And Mixon is the undisputed workhorse here. He's the RB11 despite missing three full games with a high ankle sprain and having two games with under 50% of offensive snaps because of it. And Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud plays far differently than he did last year, often ignoring wide-open receivers in favor of checking it down to No. 28.
THIS IS NOT THE MAN I FELL IN LOVE WITH!!!
Tank Dell can't believe it pic.twitter.com/zGGNMRx8TD
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) December 17, 2024
We've seen this frustrating theme developing on multiple teams. QBs who don't trust their offensive lines to pass-block well and pick up blitzes play scared and spooked and choose to make easier throws, which means more checkdowns for ole Joe. This isn't the Stroud we're used to seeing.
Kansas City has some ferocious pass-rushers like defensive end Chris Jones and a creative defensive coordinator in Steve Spagnuolo. The second-year Houston quarterback has also targeted Mixon 18 times in the past three games. This isn't a time for you to get spooked out of starting him.
Other Extremely Obvious Starts: Saquon Barkley, James Cook, Josh Jacobs, Chase Brown, Bijan Robinson
Week 16 Concerns - Fantasy Football Busts
De'Von Achane - RB, Miami Dolphins vs. San Francisco 49ers (Non-PPR Leagues Only)
So, the problem with Achane isn't Achane, it's the offensive line. After losing starting center Connor Williams and starting left guard Robert Hunt after the 2023 season, the run-blocking of this unit has absolutely collapsed. Now, both starting offensive tackles are in danger of missing another game.
49ers-Dolphins 12.19 Injury Report pic.twitter.com/R9C9TPPTiR
— Adam Beasley (@AdamHBeasley) December 19, 2024
Left tackle Terron Armstead (knee) didn't practice on either Wednesday or Thursday, and right tackle Kendall Lamm (back) logged just a limited practice on Thursday. Even so, Achane's yards per carry have declined markedly as the season has progressed.
He's averaged 3.2, 2.0, 1.7, and 3.4 yards per carry in his last four games. And while his receiving work has been solid, receptions don't count for anything in non-PPR formats. A decimated offensive line is the quickest way to destroy an offense, and quarterback Tua Tagovailoa could be under a ton of pressure from San Francisco 49ers defenders like Nick Bosa.
Running back rushing yards over expected, De’Von Achane from one extreme to the next pic.twitter.com/5iQa64VSu2
— Football Insights 📊 (@fball_insights) December 18, 2024
Rushing yards over expected is heavily dependent on offensive line play. You can see a ton of teams at the top that have great offensive lines. The Dolphins do not. And with wide receiver Jaylen Waddle (knee) seeming more unlikely to play in Week 16, the Dolphins could have a ton of trouble getting the ball moving at all.
Najee Harris - RB, Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens allow just 3.5 yards per carry to opposing rushers this season. And without wide receiver George Pickens (hamstring), who's been ruled out of Saturday's contest, Pittsburgh's offense could struggle to get anything going. Sustaining drives will be difficult for it, we imagine.
Harris did fine in the first matchup between the two teams, but it was a strangely defensive battle, and he got plenty of volume as well as five targets in the passing game. We don't expect the Steelers to have an easy time moving the ball with zero good receiving options, meaning Baltimore can dedicate more resources to stopping the run.
Najee Harris moves the sticks pic.twitter.com/H8WFwAEayW
— DIE-HARD 🦅 REALTOR® (@Eaglesfans9) December 15, 2024
The last time he faced a good run defense (literally last week), he ran six times for just 14 yards and caught his only target for seven more. We got a glimpse of what Pittsburgh's offense would look like when it wasn't going against a fake defensive unit like the Cincinnati Bengals squad.
And it was ugly. This one should be ugly as well. Find someone else to start.
Extremely Obvious Sits: The Backup RBs
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