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Kyle Ringstad's MLB DFS prop picks for RIVAL fantasy contests for Wednesday, June 30th, 2023. Sign up for RIVAL fantasy and use his MLB DFS prop picks to win money.
Welcome to our new series covering RIVAL Fantasy picks for MLB! We will focus on two fantasy contest types offered on RIVAL - Challenges and FantasyBook (Over/Under).
Challenges are H2H matchups between two MLB players. You choose which one you think will score the most fantasy points, then place a bet to back it. If another user decides on the other player at any time before the contest, the bet is on! If your player scores more fantasy points, you win 1.8x your bet.
FantasyBook is more traditional over/under DFS prop picks - whether you think pitchers and hitters will score Over or Under the set lines, and choosing your amount. You can parlay multiple picks together to vastly increase the juice (ex: 3 picks = 5x your bet).
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RIVAL Challenge Picks
Justin Steele over Seth Lugo
Lugo has decent enough stats, but he has been volatile recently, notching games of 9.05, -5.1, and 4.45 FPTS over his last six starts. As you'll read below, he's also in a difficult matchup and pitching in a park that does pitchers zero favors. Steele has had a few bumps in the road recently as well, but he has been the much better pitcher throughout the season, and he's in a much softer matchup today against the Guardians.
Trea Turner over Steven Kwan
Kwan will be facing the aforementioned Steele and a solid Cubs bullpen today, so I will pick the other side in most head-to-head matchups he has available. Turner hasn't had a great year as his 8.01 FPTS per game average is just slightly higher than Kwan's, but he has started to turn the corner in June (.777 OPS), and he'll be facing an unnamed Washington starter along with a bullpen that holds the second-worst xFIP (4.83) in the league.
RIVAL Over/Under Picks
Carlos Carrasco (UNDER), James Paxton (UNDER), Seth Lugo (UNDER)
Carrasco is averaging 6.86 FPTS per game this season and hasn't exceeded 11 FPTS in four consecutive starts. It's hard to imagine him exceeding 13.96 FPTS in this matchup against the Giants, a team that holds top-eight marks in OPS, ISO, and wOBA against RHP this season. Carrasco seems to be running out of gas at 36 years old as he holds a 6.19 ERA, bottom-tier advanced metrics, and a 15.1% strikeout rate that is nowhere near his 26.7% career average.
Paxton's resurgence has been impressive, but he's facing a gauntlet of an offense in the Blue Jays tonight, and I want no part in taking the over on his lofty FPTS line. He put up just 11.8 FPTS against the lowly White Sox in his last outing, and the Blue Jays have a significantly better lineup with hitters like Bichette, Guerrero Jr., Springer, and Chapman. They strike out at the sixth-lowest rate in the MLB against RHP, so we probably won't see the veteran rack up enough strikeouts to boost his fantasy score. I'm backing the Blue Jays in this matchup.
Lugo (4.01 ERA, 21.6% K%) is a solid enough pitcher to get the job done on most nights, but this is not profiling as a typical start for him. He's pitching in Cincinnati, the third-best hitter's park and the #1 park for home runs. He's also, of course, facing the upstart Reds. They had their 12-game winning streak snapped recently, but they rank fifth in OPS (.802), seventh in ISO (.188), and third in wOBA (.349) vs. RHP since the beginning of June. I don't want any part in targeting the over on a pitcher facing them in a top-three hitter's ballpark.
Fernando Tatis Jr. (OVER), Steven Kwan (UNDER), Carlos Correa (UNDER)
Tatis has had a few mediocre outings lately, but the cards align for him to bounce back with a monster game this afternoon. His 10.31 FPTS per game average outpaces what he needs to score tonight, which, again, lines up favorably for the superstar. Opposing starter Graham Ashcraft (7.17 ERA, 5.84 xERA) has struggled badly this season, and he's in awful form as he has allowed 19 earned runs - including five homers - over his three starts in June. To top it all off, the Reds' ballpark is about as good as it gets for hitters, ranking #1 in home runs via Statcast Park Factor.
This is a higher number for Kwan, who averages 7.66 FPTS per game this season. The young left fielder has exceeded 8.55 FPTS once in his last four games and thrice in his last nine contests. He has incredible plate discipline and draws a good amount of walks, but he's only hitting .261 this season, and his power has been virtually non-existent. I like the under on Kwan here because he's going up against Justin Steele, who's having one of the most out-of-nowhere dominant seasons in recent memory. A lack of strikeout upside limits his fantasy ceiling, but the lefty holds an 8-2 record, 2.62 ERA (3.15 xERA), and elite batted-ball metrics through 14 starts.
After a tumultuous (to say the least) offseason, Correa signed a mega contract to be the franchise cornerstone of the Twins for the next handful of seasons. The results in year one have been, well, disastrous. The veteran shortstop has smacked 11 homers, but his surface metrics (.212/.287/.403 with 11 HR, 37 RBI, 25 R) and advanced metrics (.234 xBA, .421 xSLG, .299 wOBA, .318 xWOBA, 24% K%) have both declined significantly from his career averages. He and Twins have made worse pitchers than Dean Kremer look like prime Nolan Ryan this season as they strike out at the highest rate (27.2%) in the league against RHP. Correa is amid a bad slump, slashing .216/.250/.455 with 24 strikeouts in June. I'm backing the under here.
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