Rest of Season First Base Rankings (May Update)

May 11, 2019

Updated rest of season first base fantasy baseball rankings for 5x5 roto mixed leagues in May. Our RotoBaller staff's 1B rankings feature the #1 most accurate industry expert, Nick Mariano.

The next stop in our Rest-of-Season rankings update is first base. Recently, RotoBaller writers and rankers Nick Mariano, Pierre Camus, Bill Dubiel and Scott Engel updated their 2019 fantasy baseball rankings, available on our dashboard. We always give our readers the very latest rankings, which are continually updated based on injuries, playing time, and performance trends.

If you recall from draft day, first base is largely devoid of high-end talent this year. Those who chose to forego a top-flight 1B pick like Cody Bellinger, Freddie Freeman, or Rhys Hoskins are likely kicking themselves. Many of the later options like Joey Votto, Jesus Aguilar, and Miguel Cabrera just haven't produced, while Matt Olson remains on the IL. Luckily, a few sleepers have emerged and you can see a dramatic shift in these rankings from just one month ago.

Since you're already here, why not stay a while and check out our analysis on updated rankings for second base, shortstop, outfield, and starting pitchers? Now, with no more delay, let's break down the 2019 first base rest-of-season rankings for May.

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First Base Tiered Ranks - 5x5 Mixed Leagues (May)

In case you missed it, our very own "Big Pick Nick" Mariano was recently named the #1 overall most accurate industry expert ranker for the 2018 season. You can see his secret sauce below! Additionally, industry legend Scott Engel recently joined the RotoBaller team and provides his insights as well. Scott is an FSWA Hall Of Famer and award winner.

Rankings Analysis - Top Tiers

Tier One

It's Cody Bellinger's world - we're all just living in it and waiting for the natural regression of a player who hit in the .260s his first two years and is enjoying an even K-BB rate, despite striking out at a rate 10 points higher than his current 14.3% K%. This isn't to say Bellinger will be a second-half flop but if you have him on your team and need help elsewhere, it wouldn't hurt to try selling at peak value.

Tier Two

Like most Cubs, Anthony Rizzo was slow out the gate this year but is starting to heat up. He's logged four multi-hit games in the last seven and has slugged four homers since the calendar turned to May. As a reliable run-producer who's seen more than 600 plate appearances in six straight seasons, Rizzo is a solid top-five player at first base.

There were some concerns about Jose Abreu being in decline after a rough 2018 filled with slumps and injuries. I'd say he has allayed those concerns fairly well after one month. Abreu ranks in the 99th percentile in hard-hit rate, ranking fourth at 57.9%. He's also second in Barrel rate, ranks in the 95th percentile for xSLG and 91st for xwOBA. So he's doing OK.

Tier Three

I won't get too deep into Gallo's profile here because a) we know what he is by now, and b) you may not necessarily be using him at first base. I will note that the top fantasy baseball ranker in all the land last year, Nick Mariano, has him 27 overall, higher than Hoskins, Rizzo, and even Freeman. Maybe we should learn to love Gallo and live with the strikeouts.

Matt Carpenter is the only other 1B-qualifying player in this tier and if you're using him at this position rather than the middle infield, things have gone wrong somewhere along the way. He's supposed to be the type of player you don't need to use at the corners because he's better off giving you a power boost at second base, because that position is thinner in fantasy. At least it used to be.

Rankings Analysis - Middle Tiers

Tier Four

In this tier, it's a matter of which New York slugger you prefer. Both Pete Alonso and Luke Voit have lived up to their preseason sleeper status so far, although Bill Dubs is not buying it just yet based on his bearish ranking. They each have posted elite xSLG numbers and have locked down a starting job the rest of this season, barring injury. Between the two, I give the slight edge to Alonso because of lineup position. Both primarily reside in the second spot of the lineup but Voit could get pushed down once the Yankees actually get their main players like Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge back.

Is Joey Votto still on here? He's only two years removed from nearly being the MVP but since then it's just been downhill. Votto remains a top-100 player for Nick, while Bill may be having flashbacks to 2017 with a ranking of 63 overall but I'm done with him for good. The Reds as a team may improve their offense (they have nowhere to go but up) but that doesn't mean Votto will be a big part of that. As Kanye once said, "You can't tell me nothin'!"

I am totally buying the Josh Bell renaissance. A sophomore slump soured us all on the former top prospect in the Steel City, reflected in his 249 preseason ADP. Despite an increased strikeout rate, he's posting elite Statcast numbers in the 95th percentile or higher of exit velocity, hard-hit rate, xSLG and xwOBA. He could end up being the best value pick at this position by season's end.

Tier Five

Matt Olson is back in the A's lineup and went 2-for-4 with a double on the 9th. We heard the cautionary tales of how his wrist injury might affect his swing for a while even when he's cleared to play. Doesn't seem that way. Olson is someone I'll be moving back up the rankings soon.

It was pretty exciting when Jesus Aguilar went yard thrice in two days and we immediately assumed he was back. He hasn't homered since May began but at least his average has inched back up to .181! Believe it or not, his plate discipline is better than last year and there aren't any big red flags to worry about so keep exploring a buy-low scenario if possible.

Tier Six

In the same vein as Votto, I'm all but throwing in the towel on a pair of former MVPs. Miggy and Braun aren't recapturing their former glory and should be viewed as CI options in 12+ team leagues. Braun can still drive in runs in that Brewers lineup and Cabrera is hitting for average but that's about it. One look at the overall profile shows that these two rank 24th and 41st respectively in terms of overall value in 5x5 leagues among players who qualify at first base.

Can you ride with Daniel Vogelbach the rest of the season? Nick definitely thinks so, ranking him inside his top 150 while nobody else has him as a top-200 player. Since his amazing week, he's only homered once since April 20th (coincidence?) which is a span of 16 games. He's struggling hard against lefties with a .118 average, so don't be surprised if his ABs start to be limited, especially once Kyle Seager comes off the injured list in late May or early June.

Rankings Analysis - Lower Tiers

Tier Seven

Jay Bruce is doing his best Jay Bruce impression this year in Seattle. The power will play in roto but at the expense of batting average, which currently sits at .186. The fact that his BABIP is .164 isn't encouraging, it's downright scary.

I'm keeping the faith in Ronald Guzman as a less-frightening source of power among lower-tier first base options. He just came off the IL and should resume duties as an everyday starter. He is a lottery ticket at this point but one I'm willing to invest a roster spot in.

Same goes for Ryan O'Hearn, whose Statcast numbers suggest he's due for some better luck soon. He's got a tremendous 51.3% hard-hit rate, so if he can stop hitting the ball on the ground so much, the numbers could rise. Hear that, Rafael Devers?

Tier Eight and lower

Nate Lowe was a popular waiver add 10 days ago because of his mammoth raw power. 35 at-bats and zero homers later, he's already being dropped everywhere. As long as he doesn't embarrass himself at the plate, which he hasn't so far, the Rays will give him every chance to keep playing.

Yonder Alonso isn't exciting and never has been, but he's been at least a 20-HR guy the last two seasons that won't kill your average. This year, he's killing your average. For a young, non-contending team like the White Sox, Alonso might be cast aside if he doesn't turn things around quickly.

Kendrys Morales might also become a victim of the numbers game, as Oakland has plenty of young prospects ready to take his place.

I wish there were more young 1B prospects on the cusp of making an impact this year, but as of right now the best we can do is hope that Yordan Alvarez gets called up and sees enough time to qualify at the position. As you may know, I'm a big fan.

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