December 2, 2016

Here are Renee Miller's DraftKings daily fantasy football lineup picks for Week 13 for the NFL season. If you are playing on DraftKings, build your lineups with her DFS sleepers & FLEX values.

It’s easy to let your DraftKings FLEX spot be left up to the amount of salary remaining after you fill out the rest of the squad. That’s the ‘flex-by-default’ strategy. The purpose of this Week 13 DraftKings DFS article is to help you avoid it. You can and should use the FLEX spot to strengthen and diversify your daily league lineups for Week 13 of the NFL season.

A couple of thoughts: 1) You don’t have to spend all the salary cap. A better player in a better situation may force you to leave a few hundred salary cap dollars on the table. Force yourself to roster the best lineup, even if it fails to use the whole cap. 2) As a scientist, I like to use players for which I can build a case based on multiple pieces of evidence. I look at things like opportunities, efficiency, opponent and game flow to start my research. I want as many players that are positive in all categories as I can fit. Having an idea of the players I want before I work with salaries helps me with #1 too.

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Week 13 DraftKings FLEX Options - Daily Fantasy Football Picks

Use this list as your flex cheat sheet; if a player is on here, there’s good reason to roster him in your last spot.

I assume that you have $6,500 or less to work with for this final spot on the roster. I also assume you’ll arrange accordingly so that the player with the latest game start is in the flex in case you should need to swap someone out.

Safe Options - Week 13 DraftKings Lineup Picks

Theo Riddick, $5,800: While a lot of us will be all in on Drew Brees and the Saints passing game this weekend, I think it’s foolish to overlook the advantage Detroit will have here. Riddick gets the league’s fifth-best running back matchup, and luckily for him, New Orleans has surrendered a lot of those fantasy points to receiving backs. Riddick is number three in receptions, tied for first in receiving touchdowns, and seventh in receiving yards among running backs this season. He’s a safe RB/flex play in all formats this weekend. 

Emmanuel Sanders, $5,900 / Demaryius Thomas, $6,600: These two are very even every week, with Sanders out-targeting Thomas, but Thomas doing more with his targets. They differ by one reception and one touchdown on the season, and I can’t justify spending $700 more on Thomas except in tournaments where I think he’ll have lower ownership than Sanders. The range of outcomes for Sanders and Thomas is identical, so take Sanders in a road game that should keep Trevor Siemian throwing all four quarters.

Jimmy Graham, $5,500: With huge question marks (at best) for the top tight ends, I’m having a hard time getting away from Graham this weekend. He’ll be playing in a home game where Seattle is heavily favored over Carolina and their number two fantasy tight end defense (in terms of fantasy points allowed). Graham is second in the league among tight ends in yards, and third in fantasy points. If you’re planning to take advantage of C.J. Fiedorowicz or Vance McDonald’s cheap price tags, consider Graham as a flex with WR upside and a double-digit floor.

Upside Options - Week 13 DraftKings Lineup Picks

DeAndre Hopkins, $6,000: Green Bay’s secondary missed some coverages last Monday night vs. the Eagles and made Dorial Green-Beckham look like a superstar at times. On the season, they’re our third-most generous fantasy matchup for wide receivers and Vegas likes Houston to stay in this game. Hopkins has fallen mightily but is still priced more for his upside than his actual production if you ask me. While he can’t be trusted to even exceed 10 fantasy points, I do think the 2 TD, 100+ yard game is still possible, making him a risk/reward flex play this week.

Devontae Booker, $5,100: Booker just needs to find the end zone to exceed value and make your tournament lineups this weekend. Denver is a balanced offense and I think it’s a safer strategy to use Sanders this week, but Booker has 24 carries in each of the last two games and Jacksonville is a fine matchup for him to score against.

Spencer Ware, $6,400: Ware’s price is a little high for upside, given that he hasn’t found the end zone since back-to-back scores in Weeks 6 and 7. That said, he is playing in one of the week’s highest scoring games vs. Atlanta’s porous run defense. The volume is there for Ware, it’s just that Tyreek Hill has been stealing all the glory! I think Ware gets back to 20+ fantasy points this week.

Value Options - Week 13 DraftKings Lineup Picks

Taylor Gabriel, $4,000: I loved Gabriel last week and he lived up to expectations. With five touchdowns in the last four games, Gabriel is ingratiating himself to Matt Ryan and his teammates. He keeps making something out of nothing and with Julio Jones opposite, what are defenses going to do? They can’t double everyone. As good as the rushing matchup is for KC, the receiving matchup is for Atlanta. The Chiefs secondary may have 13 interception (second most in the league) but they’ve also given up the second-most fantasy points to wide receivers. 

Dion Lewis, $3,800: With Rob Gronkowski clearly not himself this season, the Patriots will be glad to have Lewis one week healthier. He saw seven targets last week as well as a few carries. Lewis is a game changer based on what we saw from him last season, and against the Rams at home when New England has the highest implied team total seems like a good time for him to break out.

Kenneth Dixon, $3,700: I’m thinking that this is the week that Dixon finally stops matching Terrance West carry for carry and target for target and takes the lead role. Baltimore has done a fine job easing him in, but it’s time to turn him loose. He’s already proving to be more effective in the passing game, something the Ravens should make the most of.