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We have previously determined that fantasy managers generally prefer batters to hit the ball into the air to have a chance at a home run. Yet, all fly balls are not equal for this purpose. A player can maximize his power production by pulling the ball in the air.
One way to illustrate this is to look at league-wide HR/FB by batted ball direction. Flies to the opposite field seldom found the cheap seats in 2022, posting a HR/FB of just 3.3%. Flies to dead center fared slightly better (7.3% HR/FB), but pulled fly balls were clearly the most productive (30.2% HR/FB). The exact numbers vary from year to year, but every season illustrates this trend.
Raw Pull% is found on the Batted Ball graph on a player's FanGraphs page fifth from the top, but that number is virtually useless. As we will see below, Pull% has to be considered by batted ball type (grounder, fly, or liner) to be a useful fantasy tool, forcing managers to turn to the second of three tables under the Splits tab at the top. Let's take a closer look at how Pull% can help you win your fantasy leagues in 2023!
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How to Interpret Pull%
In 2022, there were a total of 5,214 homers hit. Of those, 3,379 went to the batter's pull side (about 65%), 1,246 went to center field (24%), and the remaining 589 were opposite-field shots (11%). This distribution is fairly consistent year-to-year, so it's safe to count on something similar going forward.
In a way, this makes intuitive sense. Pulled baseballs tend to be hit with the highest exit velocity, making it easier for them to leave the stadium. The power alleys next to the foul poles on either side of the ballpark also present the shortest distance to the cheap seats. If a player's HR/FB dramatically improves, a change in approach involving more pulled baseballs could help explain why.
How Pull% Affects Fantasy Performance
Corey Seager of the Texas Rangers provides a good illustration of this kind of change. Seager set a personal best with 33 HR last year. An increased Pull% on fly balls helps explain this change as Seager pulled 19.2% of them last year against a career rate of just 14.7.
To be clear, the number of fly balls pulled by a batter is prone to random fluctuations and may not indicate anything with predictive value. Boston's Xander Bogaerts appeared in this space in the past, and his Pull% on fly balls is pretty much a random number generator. Still, a higher Pull% on fly balls can help explain why a power outbreak happened and could prove sustainable if the batter continues to pull more fly balls.
The Problem with Raw Pull%
Of all pulled baseballs in 2022, 57.8% were grounders. Pulled grounders might have a higher average exit velocity than other ground balls, but the shift still eats them up with minimal difficulty. They will never turn into home runs. In contrast, only 22.4% of pulled baseballs were classified as fly balls last season. Ideally, fantasy managers want their hitters to pull fly balls while limiting how often they roll grounders to their pull side.
This is much easier said than done, as all players pull many more grounders than flies. Let's consider Freddie Freeman of the Los Angeles Dodgers as an example. His raw 2022 Pull% of 36.4 was much lower than the league-average 40.5%, but he pulled 52% of his grounders compared to 12% of his flies. At first glance, you might think that Freeman was making himself vulnerable to the shift without significantly boosting his power potential.
That assumption would be wrong. The shift was designed for batters who pull roughly 70% of their ground balls, and Freeman scorched it for a .360 batting average in 406 PAs last year. You may not think this matters with the upcoming shift "ban," but the new rules simply mean that shifts won't be as dramatic as they had been. There will still be plenty of shifts in 2023.
Freeman's 12 Pull% on fly balls was substantially lower than the league's mark of 22.4%, but he has enough raw power to overcome that. Pulling more grounders than flies is far from a death sentence.
Conclusion
To sum up, pulled fly balls tend to perform better than other fly balls. This means that pulling more flies can produce an increased HR/FB, but you should never use raw Pull% to determine this. Most pulled balls are hit on the ground, where all of the exit velocity in the world cannot turn them into home runs.
Therefore, you should filter a player's Pull% by batted ball type to produce the most reliable results. If you're interested in learning more about the role of advanced analytics in today's fantasy environment, stay tuned!
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