RADIO
Welcome back my fellow preseason NBA DFS degenerates! If you're like me, you've been waiting for the return of NBA DFS for so long that you're more than willing to take some shots at playing preseason NBA on DraftKings!
Preseason rotations are never easy to figure out and there's a lot of guessing that goes on for these slates. If you can't stomach the variance, then just sit back and let the rest of us sweat these slates out. I do my best to find some of the best spots, but even I have fairly limited information to work with here so I'll just warn everyone up front that things can go a lot differently than we expect quite often.
I highly encourage you to follow me on Twitter and check out the list of beat writers that I follow to keep informed on the latest up-to-date information about each team and their plans for minutes and rotations. In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy basketball lineup picks for DraftKings on 10/4/21. You can always find me in the RotoBaller Premium NBA Chat Room or @ThunderDanDFS on Twitter.
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Preseason NBA Overview
The first thing you need to know is that building lineups on FanDuel and DraftKings this preseason is going to be very different. FanDuel has decided to keep their prices the same (everyone is priced at 6,000) and therefore, you can build a lineup with any nine players you want as long as you roster two PG, SG, SF, PF, and one C. We can leverage that on FanDuel by rostering some lesser-known players since we should expect the well-known players to be more highly-rostered, especially amongst more casual players and fans. All prices listed in the article are DraftKings prices since the FD prices simply don't matter and you can play anyone you want.
DraftKings has priced guys as they would on a normal slate for the most part, but we do get discounts on superstars if we want to cram some into lineups. I like to use a balance of younger players with some veterans that we can project for solid minutes and, honestly, every slate is different to some degree. With only a few days of practice before the first preseason games, I would expect we don't see any big minutes for starters in the first few games with most teams easing their guys into action.
Preseason NBA DFS Injuries/Rest
Knowing who is playing on any NBA slate is half the battle. Getting injury info on preseason slates is a tad harder than in the regular season but here's what we know right now.
ALREADY RULED OUT:
Nikola Jokic, Joel Embiid, Paul George, Marcus Morris Sr., Nicolas Batum, Serge Ibaka, Chris Boucher, Gary Trent Jr., Khem Birch, James Wiseman, Dario Saric, Kevin Huerter, Deandre Hunter, Clint Capela, Onyeka Okongwu, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Rudy Gay, Markelle Fultz, Jaden McDaniels, Michael Carter-Williams, Chuma Okeke, Patrick Beverley, Devin Booker, Tobias Harris
DOUBTFUL/QUESTIONABLE:
Will Barton, Jonas Valanciunas, Zion Williamson, Taurean Prince, Chris Paul, Tony Snell
SITUATIONS TO AVOID
This is not a comprehensive "Fade List" by any means but these are some teams and/or coaches that I don't have much faith in giving guys big minutes tonight - UNLESS we hear something otherwise before games tip.
There are some coaches that I rarely trust in the preseason and who are well known for going deep into their benches and spread the minutes out among nearly every player. Steve Kerr (GSW) has already mentioned that he wants everyone to play tonight and his mentor Gregg Popovich (SAS) is also not someone who's going to push guys all that much in the first game.
Luke Walton (SAC) is already messing around with his starting lineup and has been a nightmare of a coach for any kind of reliability with minutes. The Kings are also fully healthy and I could easily see them do deep into the benches tonight.
Oklahoma City drove me nuts last year as I often wanted to target Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. But they have so many young players they are trying to develop that they often took the approach of playing as many guys as possible.
Denver is without Jokic tonight, but I have a hard time trusting Mike Malone to give any of his main guys any extended run - just based on how he's handled rotations in his time with the Nuggets.
NBA DFS Games to Target
New Orleans vs. Minnesota
This game looks tasty from a pace perspective and certainly has a lot of young, exciting players on both sides that we can target. With the highest total on the slate, we can expect others to gravitate to this game as well, but it's certainly a game I have a lot of interest in targeting.
New Orleans played their starters heavy minutes last preseason, but have a new coach this year with Willie Green taking over and Stan Van Gundy's tenure ending after only one season. With Mike D'Antoni on Green's staff, I expect we see this team push the tempo as they did last year. With Jonas Valanciunas doubtful and Zion Williamson not likely to play either, that opens some minutes and shots for the rest of the starting unit.
Golden State vs. Portland
It's the Portland side of things here for me, though Steph Curry is so good that he could go off in limited minutes. Guys like Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum both played 22-24 minutes a game last preseason and can fill it up quickly, especially in a good game environment like this one.
Philadelphia vs. Toronto
The Sixers are without Embiid (and holdout Ben Simmons) so there is going to be plenty of available usage and counting stats with the first unit. Meanwhile, Toronto is really intriguing here as the Sixers' defense is usually considerably worse without Embiid and Simmons - and Toronto did play some of their regulars decent minutes last preseason.
Update: Tobias Harris is now out for Philly, too, which really opens things up for Tyrese Maxey, Shake Milton, and Seth Curry to do a lot of scoring. Matisse Thybulle, Paul Reed, and Georges Niang are all interesting here now, too, and I was already on Drummond.
Denver vs. L.A. Clippers
I am looking at the Clippers side of things here as they are going to be without most of their regular starters. Denver is playing without Jokic (and of course, Jamal Murray) but I don't have a great feeling about anyone there outside of maybe taking a shot on Michael Porter Jr.
DraftKings DFS Top Plays
Let's go rapid fire here, I won't go into too much detail with each player because it's a big slate with a lot of viable options!
Jalen Suggs - PG/SG ($6,200)
Suggs was picked 5th overall by Orlando and is expected to make a big impact for the rebuilding Magic right out of the gates. DK priced him higher than most rookies for a reason. The kid can get buckets and this Orlando team badly needs offense. We often see rookies get more playing time than veterans in the preseason so we usually want to target some of the higher-profile rookies in DFS.
John Collins - PF/C ($5,900)
Atlanta had some of the more consistent minutes of any team in the preseason last year, so Collins and possibly even Trae Young look good here. I'll be interested to see if they start him at center tonight since Capela and Okungwu are both out. Either way, he's way too cheap for a player of his caliber and could see an increased role here tonight.
Deandre Ayton - C ($6,900)
Ayton really flourished for Phoenix last year and his development was crucial to Phoenix's success. I don't entirely trust the minutes, but we know he can be uber-efficient when he's been featured on offense and Sacramento has been a great matchup for bigs over the last few seasons. No Booker tonight for Phoenix and we could see Chris Paul rest, too.
Tobias Harris - SF/PF ($6,700)
No Simmons or Embiid thrusts Tobias into the spotlight here and we know he is a dangerous DFS player when he is getting up a ton of shots. I don't see any reason not to roll with him tonight unless we hear that they are going to really restrict his minutes for some reason.
UPDATE: Harris is sitting out tonight. Consider grabbing some exposure to some other Sixers. Such as...
Andre Drummond - C ($5,600)
Drummond is now Embiid's backup and continues to bounce around the league. He's not much of an asset for NBA teams at this point, but in fantasy basketball, he's still very much viable when he's going to get minutes with his elite rebounding. This feels like a spot where he could soak up a bunch of minutes in the preseason (as he did with the Cavs last year) and put up some big numbers.
Eric Bledsoe - PG/SG ($5,300)
Bledsoe is back home with the team he started with and might end up being the alpha on the court tonight with all their other starters out. I have some interest in him as he can still stuff the stat sheet.
Karl-Anthony Towns - C ($8,100)
KAT is a beast and has an awesome matchup here against New Orleans - who are likely going to be without Jonas Valanciunas and Zion tonight. The big KAT should eat and is another player from this game I want exposure to on this slate.
OG Anunoby - SF ($6,300) and Fred VanVleet - PG/SG ($6,700)
We are all super high on Anunoby here at RotoBaller for this season as he should have a chance to really bust out while Siakam is out. VanVleet showed last year that he can put up some massive fantasy games without Kyle Lowry and now Lowry is out of town so this is FVV's team.
Brandon Ingram - SF/PF ($7,800)
Ingram is an all-around stat stuffer and I think we see the ball in his hands more often this year now that Bledsoe and Lonzo Ball are out of town. He should thrive as a point-forward and this Minny-New Orleans game looks juicy.
DraftKings DFS Value Plays
My favorite 5k or cheaper plays on DK, listed in the order of my preference (favorites first).
Nickeil Alexander-Walker - PG/SG ($4,900)
Jordan Poole - PG/SG ($4,900)
Terance Mann - SG/SF ($4,800)
Gorgui Dieng - C ($4,700)
R.J. Hampton - SG ($4,600)
Tomas Satoransky - PG ($4,600)
Shake Milton - PG/SG ($4,500)
Jaxson Hayes - C ($4,400)
Al Horford - PF/C ($4,400)
