June 8, 2025
Todd Gilliland of Front Row Motorsports will start 33rd for Sunday's FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan International Speedway. Gilliland's starting position marks the third time in his Cup career where he will start from a position outside of the top 30 at Michigan. In three previous races at the site, the No. 34 Ford driver's best finish is 27th, and he collected positive place differential twice. Through 14 races so far this season, Gilliland has nine top-20 finishes and an average finish of 19.0. In practice, Gilliland ranked 19th in overall lap averages and 17th in 10 consecutive lap averages. Gilliland's Michigan history is unfavorable, but overall, his practice speeds and overall 2025 season-wide performance are decent for the salary. Although he is not the top recommendation for a value option since he does not offer as much speed as some, Gilliland is not a bad option for those looking for cap flexibility in DFS for all formats at $5,700 on DraftKings.
--Sean Engel - RotoBallerSource: DriverAverages.com
June 8, 2025
After a comical string of bad luck this year, Ryan Blaney finally broke through to victory at Nashville, becoming the last of the four Penske-affiliated drivers to do so even though he has as usual been running better than his teammates. Although recent history suggested Team Penske was neglecting non-playoff tracks to focus exclusively on Phoenix, they seem to have stopped doing so this year, which makes it more likely that they will bring the same speed they had at Nashville to other tracks. Blaney qualified 13th in an inside-line sandwich between his teammates Austin Cindric and Joey Logano. Blaney has led eight of the last ten races here, although he rarely leads a lot. Over that time span, he has also collected seven top tens including a win in 2021, so he consistently runs well. He's definitely a top contender for DFS play today and the only issue may be that at $10,500, he might be a little overpriced.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
June 8, 2025
Although Ross Chastain is one of the most valuable DFS drivers most weeks because he tends to qualify poorly and finish well, Michigan may not be one of the best tracks to start him. Although he's generally known for his intermediate prowess, he tends to do better on the 1.3-1.5 mile intermediates than the 2-milers. Although he has led the last three Michigan races, he crashed in 2022 and spun in overtime last year. However, he has never driven more cleanly than he has this year so he might be more likely to get a good finish even though his cars seem slower than they were in previous years. The main reason he might not be the best choice this week is because he qualified 20th, much better than he usually does, meaning he is less likely to earn Place Differential points. He's still a top choice for this race and well worth considering, but others seem to be better options for this race.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
June 8, 2025
It seems like Joey Logano's team has shifted its strategy in 2025. After purposely ignoring many races in recent years to focus entirely on winning the championship at Phoenix, it seems like all the Penske drivers are placing more emphasis on the entire season, perhaps to prepare for 2026 when the NASCAR Cup Series finale is returning to Homestead. As a result, it seems likely that Logano will run better at Michigan today than he did the last few years when Penske placed less emphasis on the tracks that don't have playoff races. Before they adopted that strategy, Logano was great here, winning three times and leading 590 laps, although he hasn't done much here with this car. With Penske's improved speed, Logano should finish better than expected as long as he doesn't make a mistake. He could be definitely worth starting.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
June 8, 2025
Although Ricky Stenhouse Jr. has been one of the most anonymous drivers of the season, he still quietly remains in the playoff hunt since he has been much less crash-prone this year. His only DNF came when Carson Hocevar wrecked him out last week at Nashville, which resulted in Hocevar overtaking Stenhouse by two points for 17th. Stenhouse will probably begin to fade from the playoff picture this week at Michigan, a track where he has only finished better than 12th once and has only led two laps, even though those came in last year's race. His 30th-place starting position doesn't bode well, and it feels like he has been running worse than he is finishing, with a regression to the mean likely. Stenhouse is probably only worth starting if you think he will benefit from a wild pit strategy, but that's very difficult to predict.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
June 8, 2025
Despite pissing off everyone when he wrecked Ricky Stenhouse Jr. last week at Nashville, Carson Hocevar has been on a roll. After his first pole at Texas, he blew an engine while battling for the lead at the Coca-Cola 600 after starting 39th, then drove up from 26th to second at Nashville, earning his second second-place finish of the season. It now seems likely that Hocevar will win sooner than later, and his 14th-place starting position on Sunday is a better than average start for him. Although his performance last year isn't entirely relevant since Hocevar has been so much faster this year, he did get a top-10 finish in last year's Michigan race, so it seems likely he will do so again unless he crashes. Since he's likely to run better than expected as usual, don't be surprised if he leads on Sunday. He definitely has a lot of DFS value, even qualifying as well as he did.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
June 8, 2025
In Austin Dillon's heyday, Michigan was one of his best tracks as he earned two top fives, actually fought for the lead in the 2021 race, and won in the Xfinity Series here. However, Dillon consistently lacks speed when Justin Alexander is not his crew chief and Richard Childress Racing's recent burst of intermediate speed seems to have faded as even Kyle Busch doesn't really factor in intermediate races very often anymore despite qualifying second yesterday. Dillon meanwhile qualified 28th. He does tend to do a good job creeping through the field here and earning top 20 finishes, but that isn't really enough to consider seriously starting him, particularly in a year when he is the only driver in the field who has not scored a stage point.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
June 8, 2025
Despite Ross Chastain's win in the Coca-Cola 600, Trackhouse Racing still rarely has speed and Daniel Suárez seldom does. Suárez actually has a solid record at Michigan though with two top fives in 2019, and 52 laps led and two top tens in his Next Gen era starts. However, he also qualified 35th, the worst he has ever qualified on speed here, which is consistent with his pretty terrible qualifying this year. His crew chief Matt Swiderski does seem to be great at strategy but not so much at car setups. Suárez has had a history of backing into strong finishes when a caution comes out during green flag pit stops, but although that's happened a lot this year, you can't really guarantee that will happen and that seems to be the only way he gets good finishes lately, as he did at Las Vegas and Texas. His lack of speed this year will probably override his solid historical record here.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Referee
June 8, 2025
Although Josh Berry has consistently had speed on 1.5-mile ovals this season, it's hard to know whether that will transfer to the two-mile Michigan oval on Sunday. In last year's race, he had one of his more mediocre runs, starting 16th and finishing 22nd, but he's definitely been faster on the intermediates this year. His seventh-place qualifying position suggests he may have some of the same pace he has shown on the intermediates and he'd seem to have a chance to score DFS points for laps led and fastest laps, but it's a big gamble, especially for a driver like Berry, who is inconsistent and crashes a lot. It seems like he will have speed, though, as all the Penske-related cars have been a lot faster this year. However, since he rarely finishes as well as he runs, it's probably not worth it to start him.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
June 8, 2025
Although Michael McDowell has had a very poor record at Michigan historically with his 19th-place finish last year serving as his career best, he has arguably never looked faster on intermediate tracks than he has this year with his pole at Las Vegas, a top-10 finish at Charlotte, and a pass for the lead at Texas. However, all of those are 1.5-mile tracks, which do drive differently from two-mile tracks like Michigan. He does not seem to be strong on this track type in general, as he only had a single top-20 finish at Fontana, where he finished 18th in the last race in 2023. However, given his increased speed this year, it seems likely that he might run better here than he ever has in the past. Coupling that with a 32nd-place starting position and a quite solid strategist in Travis Peterson, he might be a better DFS longshot than he appears. Since he only costs $6,100, he isn't a terrible option.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
June 8, 2025
Noah Gragson starts 29th at Michigan on Sunday, his worst ever start at the track. Although he did finish 12th in last year's race for Stewart-Haas Racing, that was more due to attrition than speed, as his average running position of 21st was actually worse than it was in his first start in 2022 before he crashed. Gragson's Front Row Motorsports teammate Zane Smith actually qualified in the top 10, and he looks poised to ultimately take control of the team for whom he previously won a Craftsman Truck Series title. Nonetheless, Gragson had his best race of the season at Charlotte two weeks ago and does have a knack for moving up through the field when he doesn't crash. However, he's crashing a lot more frequently than he did last year. Gragson probably has more DFS value than either of his teammates, but none of them look very valuable for Sunday's race.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
June 8, 2025
After replacing Corey LaJoie at Spire Motorsports last year, Justin Haley hasn't really proven to be much of an improvement as he is consistently being outrun by Carson Hocevar and Michael McDowell most weeks, although he does crash less than LaJoie did. Haley has his worst starting position at Michigan today of his career (31st), and although he has finished all four of his previous races here, he has finished slightly worse than mid-pack in three of them, especially after his crew chief Rodney Childers, who has won here before, left the team. Since he seems to have very little going for him in the way of momentum or recent success, it seems likelier he will finish closer to his worst finish (25th) than his best (17th) and won't score enough Place Differential points to be a valid DFS option, especially with a crew chief in Ryan Sparks who is not good at strategy.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
June 8, 2025
On paper, it might look like Riley Herbst might have some DFS value for Sunday's Michigan race since his 23XI Racing teammate Tyler Reddick won here last year, and his other teammate Bubba Wallace won the pole and finished second here in 2022. However, as usual, the rookie lacks speed in the NASCAR Cup Series, as his only top-10 finishes came on drafting tracks and he has never finished better than 14th elsewhere. Additionally, his 34th-place qualifying run is one of the worst of the season, and he seems to be slower on intermediates than most other track types. He has benefited from strategy a few times on intermediates, such as when he finished 19th at Las Vegas and 14th at Texas, but he didn't actually run well in those races. Even if he does finish in the top 20 on strategy, he won't likely score enough DFS points to be worth starting.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
June 8, 2025
Cole Custer makes his first start at Michigan since 2023 from the 24th starting position on Sunday. Although Custer had one of his most decent runs of the season last week at Nashville, don't expect that to continue at Michigan, a track where he has never finished better than 23rd or had an average running position of better than 17th, even when he was driving for a Stewart-Haas Racing team that had more speed on intermediates and all tracks than the Stewart Haas Factory Team does. The only value Custer could have is if he qualified really badly and backed into a top finish on strategy, but he probably qualified too well to score enough place-differential points to be worth starting for DFS.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
June 7, 2025
Tyler Reddick was one of the few drivers that had to deal with a flat tire during practice at Michigan International Speedway on Saturday morning. However, the No. 45 Toyota was fast prior to that. Before the tire issue happened, Reddick had the seventh-fastest lap of the session and looked great on the long run, posting the best 10-lap average. He's the defending winner here at Michigan International Speedway, so he definitely knows how to get around this track. As of Saturday afternoon, it still wasn't determined whether the 23XI Racing team would have to repair the car before Sunday's FireKeepers Casino 400. If so, Reddick will have to drop to the rear at the start of the race, but that shouldn't be a big deal. On DraftKings this weekend, Reddick is underpriced at $9,800, and should be a contender for the win. He's a strong DFS option in all formats on Sunday.
--Jordan McAbeeSource: The Daily Downforce
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