April 7, 2025
Ross Chastain has a history of qualifying poorly at Darlington and getting good finishes, and that continued again in Sunday's race as he started 25th before eventually finishing seventh. He had just worked his way into the top 10 for the first time in the middle of Stage 2 when he got trapped a lap down after pitting right before a caution came out. Although he was able to take the wave-around, he was unable to make much progress because he had older tires than the leaders. However, he slowly advanced from 15th to ninth in Stage 3 before grabbing two positions on the race-ending restart. Despite not scoring any stage points, he still moved from 19 points to 31 points above the playoff cut line and broke his tie for 12th in points with Chase Briscoe.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
April 6, 2025
Joe Gibbs Racing driver Denny Hamlin will start third for Sunday's race at Darlington Raceway, the Goodyear 400. Hamlin is the highest qualifying Toyota driver in the field for this week's race. In 25 races, Hamlin has four wins, 18 top-10 finishes, 1,000 laps led, and an average finish of 8.2, all of which rank first among active drivers, apart from laps led. After seven races so far this season, Hamlin has four top-10 finishes and one win, which came during last week's race at Martinsville. In practice, Hamlin ranked 21st in overall lap averages while ranking as high as 12th in 25 and 30-consecutive lap averages. Despite his practice speeds being a bit underwhelming, Hamlin's track history is better than all drivers and will still be a factor for the win regardless, especially with his JGR equipment.
--Sean Engel - RotoBallerSource: DriverAverages.com
April 6, 2025
Chase Elliott of Hendrick Motorsports will start 15th for this week's Goodyear 400 at Darlington Raceway. Elliott qualified higher than this current position only thrice during the 2025 season so far. In 16 races at Darlington in his Cup career, Elliott has 10 top-15 finishes, including four straight finishes of 12th or better in his last four appearances. With seven races completed so far during the 2025 season, Elliott has four top-10 finishes and is the only driver in the series to place in the top 20 of all races. In practice, Elliott ranked 34th in overall lap averages while displaying top-15 speeds in the 20, 25, and 30 consecutive lap average categories. Overall, Elliott is one of the more trustable drivers to compete for a top-10 finish based on track history, equipment, and practice speeds this week.
--Sean Engel - RotoBallerSource: DriverAverages.com
April 6, 2025
23XI Racing's Bubba Wallace will start fifth for Sunday's Goodyear 400 at Darlington Raceway. This will be the third time ever in his Cup career that he will start inside the top five at the site. In 13 starts at Darlington, Wallace has four top-10 finishes, which he all scored in his last five appearances at the site. Through the first seven races this year, Wallace has had three top-10 finishes, including the last two races of the season. In practice, Wallace ranked 23rd in overall lap averages, while ranking as high as seventh in 20, 25, and 30 consecutive lap averages. Considering his recent track history at Darlington, practice speeds, and recent momentum, Wallace is a suitable option for tournament lineups to maintain a top-10 or even top-5 finish.
--Sean Engel - RotoBallerSource: DriverAverages.com
April 6, 2025
Tyler Reddick of 23XI Racing will start seventh for the Goodyear 400 at Darlington Raceway, continuing a streak of starting every race at the site in the top 10 since 2021. In 11 races at Darlington in his Cup career, Reddick has five top-10 finishes, including four of the last six Cup events at the South Carolina track. After seven races so far this season, Reddick has three top-10 finishes. In practice, Reddick ranked 11th in overall lap averages while ranking among the top 10 fastest in 10, 15, 20, 25, and 30 consecutive lap averages. Based on his practice speeds, past history, and equipment, expect Reddick to be one of the top favorites to compete for the win.
--Sean Engel - RotoBallerSource: DriverAverages.com
April 6, 2025
Joey Logano finally got his first top-10 finish of the season last week at Martinsville, the latest a defending champion has posted their first top-10 result. He looks to make that two in a row at Darlington, but his 18th-place starting position is actually his second-worst starting position here, behind only his 23rd starting spot in last year's Southern 500. Despite his inconsistency in results, he does seem to have more consistent speed than he did in last year's title season, so he will likely have top-10 speed if nothing bad happens. However, Darlington isn't one of his best tracks. His only win came in the 2022 spring race after he roughed William Byron up to win, and 171 of his career 293 laps led here happened that year, and he has never led or really contended since. While he could get a lot of place-differential points, he primarily seems to be overvalued in terms of DFS salary at $9,300.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
April 6, 2025
Chase Briscoe improbably delivered Stewart-Haas Racing's last win in last year's Southern 500, the last race at Darlington Raceway. Today he starts fourth in the Goodyear 400 with a much faster Joe Gibbs Racing Team and he is coming off from back-to-back top five finishes at the track, even though he had never earned a top ten before. Toyotas have dominated at this track frequently in recent years, although they're often snakebitten in terms of actually winning. The fact that four Toyota drivers qualified in the top seven suggests that Toyotas may likely dominate this race, but Denny Hamlin, Bubba Wallace, and Tyler Reddick are probably all much more likely to since they've been faster all year. Briscoe's starting position is probably much too high for DFS consideration unless you think he's going to lead a lot of the race. That's certainly possible, but it's not one of the more likely outcomes.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
April 6, 2025
Ross Chastain has never won at Darlington, but that does not reflect how well he has run, as he has led 134 laps at the track. Oddly, 119 of those laps led came in two races he crashed out of. More typically, Chastain qualifies poorly and gains numerous positions in the field, as he did in the 2021, 2023, and 2024 Southern 500s, when he qualified worse than 20th every single time and earned top-five finishes. Chastain's 25th-place starting position on Sunday is very commensurate with that, so the odds look good that if he doesn't crash or suffer any kind of bad luck, he's definitely one of the absolute best options to start in this race. The only real argument is that he's never made a charge like that in the spring race, but his Southern 500 performances should likely carry over to the spring race eventually.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
April 6, 2025
Although Carson Hocevar failed to replicate his second-place starting position from last year's Southern 500, his 13th-place starting position on Sunday is still pretty solid, and the speed he had last year suggests there is a chance he will have speed on Sunday, even though he fell off quickly and failed to score any stage points in that race. Although Darlington is a finesse track and Hocevar is not a finesse driver, he usually does get away with his overdriving and has had very impressive runs, especially in the Craftsman Truck Series, where he has a better average finish than he's ever had on any track he's competed at more than once. However, the fact that he qualified 13th raises expectations. Although he'll likely someday lead at the track, it probably won't be until he lands a faster car, and he'll likely finish worse than he starts on Sunday.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
April 6, 2025
Although he couldn't have known it at the time, Chris Buescher's and Tyler Reddick's slight contact while battling for the lead in last year's spring Darlington race arguably knocked Buescher out of the playoffs since he was leading with nine laps left when Reddick cut his tire and was relegated to a 30th-place finish. The 33 points he lost were far greater than his seven-point deficit to Martin Truex Jr. for the last playoff spot, so Buescher will likely be intensely motivated to right last year's wrong. The issue is that even though he remains just as consistent as ever, the RFK Racing cars seem to be significantly slower and hardly factor for the lead at all. However, Buescher's usually mediocre teammate Ryan Preece qualified second, so it wouldn't be shocking if he rivals last year's speed. Whether he has DFS value largely depends on whether he leads or not, but he probably won't.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
April 6, 2025
Ty Gibbs finally stopped the bleeding somewhat in last week's race at Martinsville as he had his best run and finish in an otherwise disastrous season after his crew chief Chris Gayle was replaced by Tyler Allen. Gibbs did earn the only second-place finish of his career in last year's Darlington event, but that came during a relative career hot streak while he is suffering his greatest slump now. The fact that Gayle just dominated with Denny Hamlin and gave him his first win at Martinsville in a decade suggests that Allen might be a substantially worse crew chief and Gibbs may still be in a bit of a funk personally after flipping his High Limit car three weeks ago. It wouldn't be shocking if he led the race since he did last year, but given his current negative momentum and the fact that he only qualified 11th, he likely won't.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
April 6, 2025
Michael McDowell outqualified both of his Spire Motorsports teammates on Saturday and starts 10th for Sunday's race at Darlington. His record is very close to Ricky Stenhouse Jr.'s in that his only two top-10 finishes came in the two attrition-heavy races in 2022, where his average running positions of 18th and 11th were substantially worse than his finishing positions of seventh and sixth. In all likelihood, McDowell will finish worse than he starts and he isn't likely to score either laps led or fastest lap points since he has never led at the track. The difference is McDowell qualified substantially better than Stenhouse and costs $100 more, so he is even less valuable than Stenhouse, who wasn't that valuable himself. He should definitely be avoided.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
April 6, 2025
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.'s career pretty much lives and dies on his performances on drafting tracks now, as he is never anything more than anonymous anywhere else these days. Don't expect that to change at Darlington, where he only earned a single top-10 finish in the 2022 spring race and has never led a lap. Even in that race, he didn't run that well since his average running position was 17th, and he mostly benefited from the fact that 13 cars didn't finish -- that normally doesn't happen here. Since he's starting 28th and only costs $6,500, the case is there that he could be valuable for DFS play if you think he could back into a decent finish at all, but he would likely have to back into it due to attrition or wild strategy. It's unlikely to happen.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
April 6, 2025
Noah Gragson has been one of the most invisible drivers in the Cup Series, and the fact that he qualified 26th for Sunday's Darlington race while his Front Row Motorsports teammates Todd Gilliland and Zane Smith start 12th and 16th, respectively, is consistent with that. Gragson did slice through the field in last year's race, finishing 14th after starting 36th, and he matched his average running position of 20th in both Darlington races last year, even though he crashed out of the Southern 500. In the Xfinity Series, he was a lot better, earning two wins at Darlington, including his win in 2022, which kicked off his historic four-in-a-row streak. However, his speed has been all over the map since he started at FRM, and it's hard to really predict how he'll perform based on this season's all-over-the-map starting and finishing positions. There are probably better options that are easier to predict.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
April 6, 2025
A.J. Allmendinger alternating between full-time and part-time status in the NASCAR Cup Series hasn't seemed to have done anything to slow him down, as he now sits six points below the playoff cut line for a not-great Kaulig Racing team after two top-10 finishes in the last three races. But Darlington is one of his worst tracks, and it is the only Cup Series track with multiple dates where he has never posted a top-10 finish (his best is 13th in his last start in 2023). He has also never led a lap at the track and is starting slightly worse than mid-pack in 22nd. He's probably starting too well to earn many place-differential points and is starting too poorly to even sniff the lead or a good finish at a track where he has struggled. He is best avoided for DFS play, even at his relatively inexpensive $6,900 salary.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
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