May 4, 2025
Ross Chastain qualifies poorly and gets a good finish. Rise, rinse, repeat. Trackhouse Racing qualifying has been generally terrible this season and yesterday was no exception as Chastain qualified 31st for today's race at Texas. However, he's toned down his aggression and has now developed a plodding, methodical style more reminiscent of Chris Buescher, which is reaping dividends this season. Unlike Buescher, however, Chastain has been good at Texas with this car, finishing second in 2023 and leading 33 laps last year and winning Stage 2 before a last-lap crash. Texas is a track where strategy plays are paramount, and while Trackhouse may have slow cars they tend to have brilliant race strategies so you can almost count on both Chastain and Daniel Suárez finishing better than they run. Based on his performances this season and his poor qualifying, Chastain is almost a must-have for DFS.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
May
4,
2025
Chase
Briscoe's
Joe
Gibbs
Racing
debut
has
been
very
anonymous
so
far
as
he
currently
sits
12th
in
points
in
a
year
when
his
teammates
have
won
five
races.
It
feels
by
the
eye
test
like
he
is
running
substantially
worse
read more...
May 4, 2025
After a disastrous start to the season, Ty Gibbs has now had four consecutive good runs and he even led the most laps at Talladega after not leading any other race this season, even though all the Toyota teams botched the strategy in the end. That has propelled him from 34th to 22nd in points over that time, and his sixth-place qualifying run at Texas matched his best of the season two weeks ago at Bristol, when he had his best finish of the year. However, Gibbs also qualified in the front two rows the previous two Texas races, yet he has never earned a top-10 finish at the track and has always finished worse than he has started, meaning he will likely have a negative value in terms of place differential. Given his recent momentum, it's possible that he will finish well enough to overcome that, but it's too big a risk when better drivers are starting worse.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
May 4, 2025
Kyle Busch has won at Texas four times in the past, but his record here with the Next Gen chassis has not been inspiring as he has led no laps and crashed out of two of his three races here with this car. As a result, he is probably going to be a bit undervalued. While his $8,800 DraftKings salary still seems overpriced for his recent performance, the fact remains that nearly all the races where he seemed to have race-leading speed were on intermediates last year, although usually flat ones, not high-banked intermediates like Texas. The fact that he drove from 35th to 9th in last year's race suggests that he could be highly likely to earn Place Differential points, but admittedly his 26th-place starting position is a little better this time. While Busch is probably not the best option given his high salary, there is a valid case to start him.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
May 4, 2025
Chris Buescher, the methodical driver from Prosper, Texas, has seldom prospered at Texas. In 15 previous Texas starts, he has shockingly never finished better than 14th, making this the only track that has been on the schedule his entire Cup Series career where he has never earned a top ten. The only time he had an average running position of better than 15th was in 2023 where he started second until a late pit stop resulted in his 14th-place finish, but the RFK Racing cars seem substantially slower now than they did in 2023. The fact that Buescher is starting 12th in today's race (which is better than he has ever finished at Texas) makes him a low-key terrible option for today's race, particularly when considering his boss and teammate Brad Keselowski (who has a much better Texas record) qualified substantially worse.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
May 4, 2025
Shane van Gisbergen's learning curve has been more severe than most people expected. Despite driving a full-time chartered entry for Trackhouse Racing, he qualified 37th behind both Cody Ware and Jesse Love in a rare non-drafting track Beard Motorsports entry. It doesn't help that Trackhouse seems to have slower cars especially in qualifying than they did in any previous year, but it's also becoming apparent that the Kiwi might be too old a dog to learn the new trick of oval racing, especially when he is only a few years younger than declining Cup Series stars like Kyle Busch and Brad Keselowski who look nearly washed up at times. His speed on intermediates has been dismal with average running positions of 32nd at both Las Vegas and Homestead. Until that changes, he's not really worthy of consideration for DFS play on this track type.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
May 4, 2025
Noah Gragson's top five at Talladega last week may have seemed surprising on the surface but it probably shouldn't have been since he finished third in the previous year's spring Talladega race and his crew chief Drew Blickensderfer had given three different drivers (Matt Kenseth, David Ragan, and Michael McDowell) Daytona wins. However, Texas is another matter and Blickensderfer has done next to nothing with any driver after leaving Roush Fenway Racing in 2011. Since that point, Blickensderfer has only earned one top ten and two laps led with Bubba Wallace in 2018 and he's finished 18th in his last two Texas races with Almirola and Gragson, exactly where Gragson qualified this time. Although Gragson won here in the Xfinity Series, his two previous runs have been very middling and you can expect more of the same. He won't gain enough positions or get a good enough finish to be a viable DFS option.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
May 4, 2025
Austin Dillon qualified 19th at Texas on Saturday, outqualifying his teammate Kyle Busch. He did win here on a strategy play in 2020 in a race where his average running position was almost 14th, but that was with crew chief Justin Alexander, and he's always been worse without him than with him. Despite the win, his Texas record is rather mediocre, as he has never finished better than eighth otherwise and while Richard Childress Racing had a little speed on intermediates (more than at most other tracks), Busch was vastly faster than Dillon on intermediates in general last year, even when Dillon still had Alexander and Busch qualified even worse. He would be a much better choice for DFS options, but even he might not be that great of a choice.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
May 4, 2025
It might initially seem tempting to look at Riley Herbst for DFS play since he costs only $5,300 and is driving for a 23XI Racing team that led the most laps with Bubba Wallace two years ago at Texas, especially since he only starts 21st. However, he is still a rookie and there was no way his three straight 17th place finishes to start the season on unusual track types were in any way sustainable when getting to the bread-and-butter tracks. Herbst's only hope is a pit strategy play and it won't be surprising if the No. 35 team tries it since it is so hard to pass and he has a fast car. However, it seems that both he and his crew chief Davin Restivo are too inexperienced to contend even after strategy. In a race where Herbst's superstar Tyler Reddick only qualified four spots better, there are too many better options to consider him for Place Differential points.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
May 4, 2025
Jesse Love qualified 35th on Saturday at Texas in a rare non-drafting oval appearance for Beard Motorsports' No. 62 car. The team has a loose affiliation with Richard Childress Racing, and its last appearance outside the drafting ovals came at the Charlotte roval with Love's Xfinity Series teammate Austin Hill. The team is likely going with Love this time because he seems to have a possible Cup Series future, while Hill is likely too old. However, the team's only two non-drafting oval starts resulted in 28th and 27th-place finishes for Hill, so it's hard to imagine Love doing much better. With that team, it is unlikely he will gain nearly enough in place-differential points to make him viable for DFS consideration, and therefore he is best avoided.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
May 4, 2025
Chad Finchum makes his first start of the season in Sunday's race at Texas Motor Speedway. However, unsurprisingly since he is driving for Carl Long's Garage 66 team, Finchum qualified last place in 38th, and the gap in lap time between him and the second-slowest driver Shane van Gisbergen was greater than the gap between the pole-sitter Carson Hocevar and the 34th-place qualifier Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Finchum is so far off the pace that he is completely worthy of consideration, even for DFS play, even though his DraftKings salary of $4,500 is $500 less than the usual $5,000 minimum.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
May 4, 2025
Legacy Motor Club's John Hunter Nemechek will start 28th for Sunday's Wurth 400 at Texas Motor Speedway. It will be the fourth time in Nemechek's Cup career that he will start a race lower than the 25th position at Texas. In four races at the site, Nemechek has three finishes with positive Place Differential that are all 22nd or higher, with one DNF due to a crash. After 10 Cup events so far this season, Nemechek has four top-20 finishes with an average finish of 20.0, and six finishes with positive PD scored. In practice for Sunday's race, Nemechek's overall lap averages ranked 16th of all drivers, and he displayed top-20 speeds in the 15 and 20 consecutive lap average categories. Nemechek has solid upside based on his starting position, and with equipment capable of a top-20 finish, he is worth rostering in all formats as one of the better value punt options.
--Sean Engel - RotoBallerSource: DriverAverages.com
May 4, 2025
Zane Smith of Front Row Motorsports obtained a starting position of 13th after qualifying for Sunday's Wurth 400 at Texas Motor Speedway. Smith's starting position for this week's race is a new career-best for him at Texas. In two previous starts at the site, Smith's best finish is 24th, where he gained positive Place Differential, and his worst is 26th, where he lost it. With 10 races completed this year, Smith has six top-20 finishes, four being 12th or higher. In practice for this week's race, Smith ranked 23rd in overall lap averages while ranking ninth in 25 consecutive lap averages, showcasing that his car is best suited for longer runs compared to the field. Compared to most value options, Smith has lower upside but displays better practice speeds. When factoring in how solid he has been in finishing races this year, Smith is best suited for tournament lineups, with limited exposure.
--Sean Engel - RotoBallerSource: DriverAverages.com
May 4, 2025
Haas Factory Team's Cole Custer will start 20th after qualifying for this week's race at Texas Motor Speedway, the Wurth 400. This is the first time this season that the No. 41 Ford driver will start in the top 20 in back-to-back races after starting 12th last week at Talladega. In four previous Cup starts at Texas, Custer has two top-20 finishes and two DNFs with an average finish of 26.8. Through the first 10 races this season, Custer has one top-20 finish and four finishes with positive Place Differential. In practice, Custer ranked 30th in overall lap averages and as high as 19th in 20 consecutive lap averages. Custer's history has been mixed in Texas, and his overall performance this season has been lackluster. With unremarkable overall practice speeds and a higher starting position than most in his price range, Custer is not a general DFS recommendation due to his high PD risk this week.
--Sean Engel - RotoBallerSource: DriverAverages.com
May
3,
2025
Don't
overlook
Justin
Haley
this
weekend
at
Texas
Motor
Speedway.
The
Spire
Motorsports
driver
qualified
15th
for
Sunday
afternoon's
Würth
400,
and
while
that
was
the
slowest
lap
among
the
three
Spire
Chevrolets,
it
is
a
step
in
the
right
direction
read more...
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