November 2, 2025
Although Brad Keselowski had been going on a bit of a run throughout the playoff races with four top-10 finishes in the six races entering last week's race at Martinsville, he was unexpectedly mediocre there, and it's hard to expect much better at Phoenix. Surprisingly, Keselowski never won here, even in his glory days, but since he left Team Penske and moved to the No. 6 car in the Next Gen era, he has only finished better than 15th once and led a single lap. He qualified 19th for Sunday's race, which is pretty commensurate with all his recent runs here, so it's hard to see him significantly contending. It seems that the speed the Penske cars consistently have here has not carried over to the other Fords, so DFS players should probably stay away from Keselowski since he won't likely finish much better than he starts.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
November 2, 2025
Daniel Suárez qualified on the outside of Row 7 for Sunday's season finale at Phoenix alongside his teammate Ross Chastain. Since he is a lame-duck driver at Trackhouse Racing before he moves to the No. 7 car at Spire Motorsports, expect Suárez to play a support role for Chastain as much as possible since he currently sits 12 points behind Bubba Wallace for the final spot in the top 10 in season points. Phoenix has never been a particularly good track for Suárez, as he has never led here or finished better than ninth in his post-Joe Gibbs years. Since he has a Cup Series ride locked up next year, he really has nothing at stake and no real incentive to fight. As a result, it's pretty safe to expect him to deliver a generic, non-descript middle-of-the-pack run, making him a weak option for DFS play.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
November 2, 2025
In his peak period, Kyle Busch was pretty remarkable at Phoenix with 10 straight finishes of seventh or better from 2015-2020 and 680 laps led in that time span, but as we enter his decline, it's worth noting he's never led a lap or finished better than seventh since. He has matched his car number twice with eighth-place finishes in the 2023 and 2025 March races at Phoenix, but he hasn't had a good finish in this race since he left Joe Gibbs Racing. Although his 11th-place qualifying run was a little better than usual, he has lost positions every time he has qualified that well or better this season, except for road courses. Admittedly, this season's first race at Phoenix was something of an exception, as he drove from 15th to eighth, and he has arguably been a little faster since Andy Street replaced Randall Burnett as Busch's crew chief. Still, until proven otherwise, expect Busch to finish worse than he starts.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
November 2, 2025
Expectations were low for Ryan Preece entering this season but now he stands a chance of overtaking his teammate Chris Buescher as both the highest points finisher for RFK Racing as well as the highest-finishing non-playoff driver in points. He probably won't do it since he's 29 points behind, but Buescher was inexplicably slow at Martinsville and Richmond, so it's possible he can do it albeit very unlikely since Buescher has finished in the top ten the last four races here. Preece meanwhile has never had a top ten here but he did lead 34 laps in his RFK debut, although that was more due to a wild optional tire strategy that won't be a factor today. Preece has already clinched at least 18th in the championship and has been on a bit of a run, but that is where he'll likely remain since Buescher will likely maintain his position. Given his recent form, he might be worth a look for DFS though.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
November 2, 2025
Although Austin Dillon has mostly been a complete nonfactor at Phoenix, he's also been weirdly consistent in so doing. While he's only earned two top ten finishes here in his career, he's also finished between 12th and 18th in all but three of his last ten starts here and one of the exceptions was the March 2022 race when he crashed on the last lap. Since Dillon starts 26th today and has been so consistent for so long despite not actually running very well, he might be worth a play for DFS. He probably can't catch anyone ahead of him in the playoffs since the other Austin (Cindric) is directly in front of him and will likely outrun him, but Dillon has a chance of beating Josh Berry to not finish last in the playoffs. Given the associated speed of the Penske cars and Berry's top ten qualifying run, he might be able to overcome his 15-point deficit, but Dillon could still maintain the not-so-coveted 15th-place points position.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
November 2, 2025
A.J. Allmendinger has kind of faded into the background in recent years, as he is nowhere near as good at his main strength (road racing) as Shane van Gisbergen is, but he's still performing somewhat decently in his questionable Kaulig Racing cars. Allmendinger used to be very fast at Phoenix in Richard Petty Motorsports' years, when he had two top-10 finishes and three front-row starts, but he's never had a top-10 showing since then. Nonetheless, he failed to post a qualifying time and only costs $5,500 on DraftKings DFS, so he might be worth starting anyway since he usually runs in the middle of the pack and will likely finish a little better than where he started after finishing 22nd in the March race. Allmendinger doesn't really have anything significant at stake, so he will probably be more concerned with getting a finish than running well, but that may mean he might be less likely to crash and therefore be a safer fantasy option.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
October 27, 2025
Hendrick Motorsports driver William Byron was the most dominant driver of the Xfinity 500 at Martinsville Speedway. Byron's dominance began right from the beginning of the race as he started from the pole position and left the field behind immediately on the first lap. The No. 24 Chevrolet driver went on to lead all but 11 of the first 271 laps and win the first two stages without much competition. In the final stage, Byron restarted further back in the field after pitting for tires and fuel, while others stayed out. It took him most of the stage, but Byron returned to the lead by chasing down Ryan Blaney, who led most of the final stage, until lap 457 when Byron nudged Blaney out of the way for the lead. By leading the last 44 laps, Byron earned a clutch victory after leading 304 total laps that advanced him into the championship round of the playoffs at Phoenix, where he will compete for his first Cup Series title.
--Sean Engel - RotoBallerSource: NASCAR.com
October 27, 2025
Kyle Larson finished fifth after a steady and consistent performance during Sunday's Xfinity 500 at Martinsville Speedway. Larson began the race from the third position and had one of the fastest cars early in the race. The No. 5 Chevrolet driver mainly focused on his points battle with Christopher Bell and outran him in both of the first two stages. In the first stage, he placed third, and in the second stage, he placed second, earning enough stage points to open up a points gap where he simply needed to finish ahead of Bell to advance. Larson continued to run inside the top 10 through most of the last stage and worked back up to his eventual finishing position of fifth. With his top-5 finish in this week's race, Larson continues his streak of seven consecutive races of sixth or better at Martinsville. The 2021 Cup Series champion advanced to the championship race at Phoenix next week by placing ahead of Bell and has the opportunity to win his second Cup Series title.
--Sean Engel - RotoBallerSource: NASCAR.com
October 27, 2025
Team Penske's Ryan Blaney was one of the two dominant drivers of Sunday's Xfinity 500 at Martinsville Speedway. He led 177 laps, the second-most of all drivers, but they all came during the third and final stage. The No. 12 Ford driver spent the first two stages of the race methodically working his way to the front as he started the race from 31st after a slow lap in qualifying. From there, Blaney dominated the race outside of one brief sequence of pit stops until lap 457, when William Byron chased Blaney and took the lead. Blaney tried to get back to the lead during the race's final restart on lap 490, but was not fast enough to pass Byron and settled for second. Unfortunately for Blaney, second place was not enough to advance to the championship race in the playoffs; he needed to win.
--Sean Engel - RotoBallerSource: NASCAR.com
October 27, 2025
Chase Elliott finished third in Sunday's Xfinity 500 at Martinsville Speedway. Elliott was one of the fastest drivers of the race and ran in the top five throughout most of the race. He placed fourth at the end of the first two stages and looked like one of the few drivers who could compete against the dominant drivers of the day, William Byron and Chase Elliott. Unfortunately for Elliott, he was caught a lap down during a green flag pit sequence due to a caution on lap 379 for Erik Jones spinning. Elliott spent the rest of the race in the final stage recovering from outside the top five, but was able to recover to third, earning his fourth consecutive top-5 result by passing Ross Chastain in the closing laps. Despite his strong run, Elliott was unable to score enough points to advance to the championship race in the playoffs, as he needed to win to keep his postseason hopes alive.
--Sean Engel - RotoBallerSource: NASCAR.com
October 27, 2025
In a winner-take-all race at Martinsville, where William Byron and Ryan Blaney led 96% of the laps from below the playoff cut line, Byron and Blaney's duel made it a race-long battle between Christopher Bell and Kyle Larson for the final transfer spot, but it really wasn't much of a battle. Even though Bell entered the race with a one-point lead over Larson, as predicted here, Larson overtook him on stage points in Stage 1, and Bell never really found a way back in. Larson spent the vast majority of the race ahead of Bell and finished fifth to Bell's seventh in a race where the Toyotas were surprisingly off-song. Ultimately, although Bell was actually the fastest Toyota driver this season and had his share of wins, he was a little too complacent in terms of focusing on consistency rather than dominating races and top-level performance, which probably bit him in the end.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
October 27, 2025
Although Joey Logano predictably ran in the top 10 most of the day at Martinsville, where he started fourth, finished eighth, and posted an average running position of sixth, he just as predictably failed to seriously contend for the win or even the lead at any point in the race. Logano ranks 10th in speed this season and has not been the fastest driver in any race, so in a race like Sunday's, where very little chicanery took place, speed was paramount, and there was no chance for the No. 22's penchant for wild strategies to shake up the outcome. People feared Logano advancing to the Championship 4 because of Penske's dominance at Phoenix and the fact that he already has more titles than he deserves, but they should not have. However, Logano's "odd-even" trend of making the Championship 4 only in even-numbered years is likely just a statistical quirk that means nothing.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
October 27, 2025
Chase Briscoe finished last in Sunday's race at Martinsville after an engine failure, but it clearly doesn't matter since he had already advanced to the Championship 4 by virtue of his win at Talladega. It seems incredibly obvious that both Hamlin and Briscoe were trying some wild setups and treating Martinsville as a race-long test session for the Phoenix finale, so one should not judge their prospects based on that. However, the difference is that Hamlin actually ran well as he was second to Ryan Blaney for a while, as opposed to Briscoe, who was in and out of the top 10 and had one of his weaker runs in weeks before his engine failure. Briscoe seems outmatched compared to the three perpetual championship contenders who joined him in the Championship 4, but he's also exceeded people's expectations all season and is quite strong at Phoenix, so he's not entirely out of it either.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
October 27, 2025
In a Martinsville race that didn't mean much for Denny Hamlin since he had already locked himself into the Championship 4, Hamlin and his teammate, Chase Briscoe, who had also advanced, both blew engines, as did fellow Toyota driver Riley Herbst. Obviously, since the two Toyota drivers who advanced both blew engines while none of the other Toyota drivers did, except for Herbst, who has literally nothing at stake, it seems obvious that Toyota as an organization was trying some aggressive setups to prepare for the championship finale at Phoenix. This is why fans should stop looking at full-season points to evaluate driver performance when teams are responding to the current playoff format. With Penske failing to advance and Hamlin having three weeks to prepare for Phoenix after his win at Las Vegas, he's probably the championship favorite.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
October 26, 2025
Chris Buescher will start in the 29th position for the Xfinity 500 at Martinsville Speedway. This is Buescher's lowest starting position in a Martinsville race since April 2024. In 20 races at the site, Buescher has 10 top-20 finishes, including four top-15s in the last seven Cup events. With 34 races completed in the 2025 season, Buescher has 26 top-20 finishes, including 16 inside the top 10, with an average finish of 14.0. In practice for this week's race, Buescher ranked 25th in overall lap averages, while displaying top-20 speeds in the 20-30 consecutive lap average categories. Buescher has plenty of upside in this week's race, with equipment capable of finishing in the top 20 at Martinsville. He is a solid option to consider for all DFS formats this week.
--Sean Engel - RotoBallerSource: DriverAverages.com
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