February 23, 2025
John Hunter Nemechek will start 22nd for this week's Ambetter Health 400 at Atlanta Motor Speedway. This will be the highest starting position of Nemechek's Cup career at the site since the track's reconfiguration in 2022. In two races since 2022 at Atlanta, Nemechek has two finishes with position place differential and a best finish of 21st. In last week's Daytona 500, Nemechek started the race in 18th and ended up in fifth place. Nemechek's DFS salary this week is one of the cheapest on both sites, and he offers adequate upside based on his starting position. Although his history at Atlanta is fine, the No. 42 Toyota driver is someone who makes for a decent option for all DFS formats for this week.
--Sean Engel - RotoBallerSource: DriverAverages.com
February 23, 2025
Spire Motorsports driver and 2024 rookie of the year Carson Hocevar will start this week's race at Atlanta Motor Speedway from the 26th position after qualifying. This marks the first top-30 start for Hocevar in the Cup Series at AMS and is the highest start position yet for the second-year driver. In two previous starts at Atlanta, Hocevar has two top-20 finishes, with his highest being 16th in September 2024, his most recent race at the site. The No. 77 Chevrolet driver obtained positive place differential in both Cup starts at the site. Regardless of how few starts he has at Atlanta, Hocevar should not be underestimated as a member of Spire. Spire generally brings top-20 caliber equipment for drafting tracks like Atlanta. Hocevar offers cap flexibility with his low salary ($5,700 on DraftKings), upside, and overall favorable history, making him one of the best value options of the week for DFS players.
--Sean Engel - RotoBallerSource: DriverAverages.com
February 23, 2025
Front Row Motorsports driver Noah Gragson will start 10th in this week's Ambetter Health 400 at Atlanta Motor Speedway. It will be the highest starting position of his Cup career at the site and the first time he will start in the top 10 there. In six prior starts at Atlanta, Gragson only has one top-20 finish, a 12th-place result during the March 2023 Cup event, which was the only start of his to score positive place differential. In last week's Daytona 500, Gragson led two laps but finished the race three laps down and in the 28th position. Gragson's history at drafting tracks is not the greatest, especially in Atlanta. Despite driving for Front Row Motorsports, who generally is great at drafting tracks, Gragson offers too little upside to be considered a favorable DFS pick and is an overall fade this week.
--Sean Engel - RotoBallerSource: DriverAverages.com
February 23, 2025
Corey LaJoie will compete in the Ambetter Health 400 at Atlanta Motor Speedway as one of the three open entries to make it into the race. LaJoie will start the race in the 35th position, which will be his lowest since the track was reconfigured in 2022. In six starts at Atlanta since 2022, LaJoie has four top-20 finishes, including two in the top five. The No. 01 Ford driver collected positive place differential at the Georgia track five times in the last six Cup events. In last week's Daytona 500, LaJoie led 10 laps before landing a finish of 21st. LaJoie's starting position provides great upside, and with his favorable recent Atlanta history and Rick Ware Racing equipment, LaJoie is a top bargain DFS value pick worth consideration for all formats.
--Sean Engel - RotoBallerSource: DriverAverages.com
February 23, 2025
A.J. Allmendinger of Kaulig Racing obtained a starting position of 12th after qualifying for the Ambetter Health 400 at Atlanta Motor Speedway. This will be the highest starting position for Allmendinger at the site since the track was reconfigured in 2022. In two previous starts since 2022 at Atlanta, Allmendinger has two finishes of 16th or better with positive place differential scored. This includes a finish of third in his last appearance at the track in July 2023. Allmendinger's starting position does not offer a lot of upside compared to other drivers, but his overall history at Atlanta since 2022 is solid. The lack of upside and history make Allmendinger a tournament play to recommend at best, as he is one of the riskier value options available for DFS.
--Sean Engel - RotoBallerSource: DriverAverages.com
February 23, 2025
Richard Childress Racing driver Austin Dillon will start 15th after qualifying for the Ambetter Health 400 at Atlanta Motor Speedway. This will mark the third consecutive race where Dillon will start inside the top 15 at Atlanta. In the six most recent races at the site, Dillon has two top-20 finishes but has never finished placed than 20th and only scored positive place differential once. During last week's Daytona 500, Dillon lost place differential and finished in the 23rd position after starting 15th. Although RCR typically brings great equipment to drafting-based tracks like Atlanta, it is hard to recommend Dillon over other drivers for DFS in his price range due to his lackluster recent history at the Georgia track and lower-than-average upside. Fading the No. 3 Chevrolet driver would not be a bad call for this week.
--Sean Engel - RotoBallerSource: DriverAverages.com
February 23, 2025
Bubba Wallace remains one of the best drafters in the Cup Series even though he tends to finish worse than he runs. Wallace qualified 14th for today's Ambetter Health 300 and was significantly faster than all other Toyota drivers in a qualifying session where Ford drivers claimed 10 of the top 11 spots. When considering that and his 18 laps and many lead changes in the Daytona 500, he seems like he might be a leading contender on the surface. However, his record at Atlanta isn't very good as his average finish of 20.3 and 18.8 since it became a drafting track is not very good, especially because he has not crashed out of a race here. Although he finished 5th in last year's race, he's only led 19 laps here so his strong qualifying and lack of dominance here suggest there are better options for DFS, although he might still be worth a bet for the win at 30-1.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
February 23, 2025
Chris Buescher qualified eighth as the fastest of the three RFK Racing drivers for Sunday's Ambetter Health 300. He has a history of being a pretty good drafter, but not an elite one. Although his record at Daytona is much stronger than his record at Atlanta, he did lead 39 laps in the 2023 summer Atlanta race, second-most in that event. Although just given his talent and the general Ford speed, he might be worth a bet for the win at 28-1, but he's probably both starting too well and too highly priced at $8,600 to be worth choosing for DFS play. While the Ford drivers are not necessarily worth avoiding since they will likely dominate the race, it seems much more likely that the Penske team drivers will dominate the race than Buescher, which means he probably won't earn enough bonus points to become more valuable.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
February 23, 2025
Brad Keselowski has won twice previously at Atlanta, but that came in the era when he drove for Roger Penske and it was a traditional 1.5-mile track before it was turned into a drafting race. Nonetheless, Keselowski has a history of being one of the best drafters in the Cup Series. In the 2023 winter Atlanta race, Keselowski had his greatest laps led total at the track with 47, although he was eventually snookered on the last lap by his ex-teammate Joey Logano. Keselowski is likely not as fast as he was nor does it look like the RFK Racing cars are as fast as the Team Penske cars. Nonetheless, he has had enough wins and dominant runs on this track type that he can't be ruled out as a possibility either for DFS lineups (where he is worth $9,300) even though he is starting 9th or for the win, where he is listed at 20-1.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
February 23, 2025
Despite the speed the Toyotas frequently showed during speedweeks, they had a miserable showing in Saturday's Atlanta qualifying as this year's Daytona 500 polesitter only qualified 25th, although Chase Briscoe still outqualified all three of his Joe Gibbs Racing teammates. Despite mostly avoiding the last-lap Big One he caused in the Daytona 500 en route to a fourth-place finish, he was stripped of 100 points for a modified spoiler and fell to last in points, and his crew chief James Small was suspended. It seems quite possible that the No. 19 team's cheating was the only reason they broke through the perennial Ford dominance in qualifying, and that he won't be fast at Atlanta. There is too much uncertainty here to make Briscoe a worthy bet, and JGR bettors should focus on his three superior teammates, who all qualified worse.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
February 23, 2025
Josh Berry qualified third for Sunday's Ambetter Health 400 at Atlanta in a lockout of the first two rows of qualifying for Team Penske and its Wood Brothers Racing satellite. Berry has not shown much on drafting tracks yet, as his average finish at Atlanta is only 25th, but admittedly his No. 4 Stewart-Haas Racing car from last year was probably not as fast on this track type as the de facto Penske car he is racing now, and Harrison Burton (who is probably less talented than Berry) won at Daytona in the No. 21 car last season. However, given both his inconsistency and the fact that he was the most crash-prone driver last year, it seems extremely unlikely he will remain up front, unlike his quasi-teammates, and he should probably be ignored by both DFS players and straight bettors.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
February 23, 2025
Although Ryan Preece has earned six of his 16 career top-10 finishes on drafting tracks, most of those came in the Gen-6 era of NASCAR, as he hasn't been as fast on these tracks since his return to the NASCAR Cup Series than he was with JTG Daugherty Racing. Atlanta was also his worst on this track to begin with, as he has never finished better than 16th, either before or after Atlanta became a drafting track. He has only led three career laps here. Admittedly, his RFK Racing car seems to be faster than either of the cars he raced before on these tracks, and he will be starting 11th. However, the fact that he might be spooked after a second flip at Daytona in a year and a half, as well as his past record here, suggests he will probably finish worse than he starts.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
February 23, 2025
Erik Jones on paper doesn't look like a valuable option for Sunday's Atlanta race as he qualified 28th, and the Toyotas seem to have substantially less speed than they did in the Daytona 500. Nonetheless, Jones remains one of the strongest drafters in the series, and his near miss in the Duel race suggests he has likely made significant headway in recovering from his injury at Talladega last year and should be a lot faster in this race. Although both of Jones' finishes were poor last year, he has an average finish of 16.3 and has never crashed out at Atlanta, even in the drafting-era races. That suggests he is likely to progress through the field but probably won't lead much since the Fords will dominate. He seems to be a highly valuable DFS option, even if his chances of winning seem remote.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
February 23, 2025
When Michael McDowell left Front Row Motorsports to go to Spire Motorsports, it pretty much instantly ended his run of dominance in drafting track qualifying as Spire's Chevies are significantly slower than FRM's Fords were last year. In fact, Spire seemed to be arguably the slowest multi-car chartered team in the Daytona 500 as the three Spire drivers ran in the back together for much of the race and they didn't have much speed on these tracks last year either. Because of his 27 laps led in last year's race and his weak 24th place qualifying run, he will be a tempting selection for a lot of DFS players but it seems the only reason he had so much speed on those tracks last year was the Ford dominance. Now that he has signed with an uncompetitive team on these tracks, don't expect him to do much.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
February 23, 2025
Although Todd Gilliland performed slightly worse than expected in the Daytona 500, he now returns to the site of his greatest race last year where he led a career-best 58 laps before suffering minor damage in a crash late in the race, which relegated him to a 26th-place finish. It seems like his Front Row Motorsports team has lost a little speed on these tracks since Michael McDowell's departure and is now clearly slower than the Penske cars, which was somewhat less obvious last year. The history of FRM drivers tending to finish worse than they start on these tracks suggests that DFS players probably shouldn't start him, but given both his and Ford's recent speed here, he might be a great bet in other categories as he is 40-1 to win, 11-1 to podium, and 5-1 to earn a top five on DraftKings and his probabilities for each are likely better than that.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
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