July 6, 2025
Spire Motorsports driver Carson Hocevar will start third after qualifying for Sunday's Grant Park 165 at the Chicago Street Course. This is Hocevar's first time starting inside the top five at Chicago in his Cup career. In his only prior Cup start at the site, Hocevar has a finish of 24th and lost place differential. Through 17 Cup races so far this season, Hocevar has three top-10 finishes and an average finish of 22.5. Hocevar has just one top-15 finish in two road course events ran this season, with a finish of 13th at COTA. In practice, Hocevar ranked 26th in overall lap averages and 16th in five consecutive lap averages. Hocevar is a driver that is hard to recommend based on his practice speeds and past Chicago history for this week's race. His almost miniscule upside however, is the biggest factor for why Hocevar is a driver to avoid in DFS for this week's race.
--Sean Engel - RotoBallerSource: DriverAverages.com
July 6, 2025
Trackhouse Racing's Ross Chastain will start 22nd for the Grant Park 165 at the Chicago Street Course after qualifying. The No. 1 Chevrolet driver will start inside the top 25 for the second time in his Cup career at the site. In two previous starts at Chicago, Chastain placed 22nd twice and collected positive place differential once. In 17 races completed this season, Chastain has 14 top-20 finishes, including two finishes of 16th or better at road courses. In practice, Chastain ranked 22nd in overall lap averages, 17th in five consecutive lap averages, and ninth in 10 consecutive lap averages. Chastain has favorable upside and equipment despite his track history being mediocre at Chicago. Overall, while he is not a top play for DFS this week, he is still a driver capable of placing in the top 20 and gaining a few spots worth of PD, making him a decent option for this week's race.
--Sean Engel - RotoBallerSource: DriverAverages.com
July 6, 2025
RFK Racing's Ryan Preece obtained a starting position of seventh after qualifying for Sunday's Grant Park 165. It is the best starting position of Preece's Cup career at Chicago, and he is also the top Ford driver in qualifying this week. In two previous races at the street course, Preece has one top-15 finish, which he gained in the 2023 Cup event. After 17 races completed so far this season, Preece has seven top-10 finishes and an average finish of 18.0. At road courses this year, Preece led in both of the two events at the track type and even won a stage at both. He also finished 15th in the last road race at Mexico City. In practice, Preece ranked ninth in overall lap averages and displayed top-10 speeds in all categories except for single lap times. Preece has been fast through practice, and he did perform solidly in his last road course race this season. Although his salary is low and he is solid equipment, Preece has low upside from his starting position and is a DFS risk, meaning that he should only be rostered in tournament lineups and avoided for cash games.
--Sean Engel - RotoBallerSource: DriverAverages.com
July 6, 2025
Richard Childress Racing's Austin Dillon will start 10th for Sunday's Grant Park 165 at the Chicago Street Course. This is Dillon's best starting position of his Cup career at the site. In two previous races at Chicago, Dillon has one top-20 finish and one DNF due to a crash. With 17 races completed this season, Dillon has nine top-20 finishes with an average finish of 20.1. In practice, Dillon ranked 15th in overall lap averages and 21st in five consecutive lap averages. Dillon's starting position being in the top 10 makes it hard to trust him for DFS since he has little upside combined with slower practice speeds, indicating that he will lose positions. Dillon's overall shaky road course history makes him a driver to fade for DFS this week.
--Sean Engel - RotoBallerSource: DriverAverages.com
July 6, 2025
Zane Smith of Front Row Motorsports will start 26th after qualifying for the Grant Park 165 at the Chicago Street Course. Smith ended up being the slowest qualifier of the three Front Row entries in this week's race and the only one to start outside of the top 25. In Smith's only previous Cup start at Chicago back in 2024 while driving for Spire Motorsports, Smith finished 17th after starting 30th. Through 17 Cup races so far this season, Smith has 10 top-20 finishes and an average finish of 20.3. In practice for Sunday's race, Smith ranked sixth in overall lap averages for practice and ranked 12th in five consecutive lap averages. With plenty of upside and highly favorable practice speeds, Smith is a driver who should be considered for all formats as a solid value option.
--Sean Engel - RotoBallerSource: DriverAverages.com
July 6, 2025
Xfinity Series regular Austin Hill qualified for the Grant Park 165 at the Chicago Street Course and will start 30th in a third Richard Childress Racing entry. This will be Hill's second Cup start at the street course in his career and his second start of the 2025 season after Darlington, where he placed 31st. In his only previous Cup start at Chicago, Hill finished 31st and scored positive place differential while in the Xfinity Series, he has three top-10 finishes in three starts, including a finish of fourth earlier this weekend. In practice, Hill ranked 32nd in overall lap averages, 15th in five consecutive lap averages, and 11th in 10 consecutive lap averages. With favorable practice speeds and a fair amount of experience in Xfinity car at Chicago, Hill is one of the better value options of the week to consider for DFS and save plenty of cap flexibility.
--Sean Engel - RotoBallerSource: DriverAverages.com
July 6, 2025
Ty Dillon of Kaulig Racing qualified 36th for this week's Grant Park 165 at the Chicago Street Course. This will be a new career-worst starting position for Dillon in his Cup career at Chicago. In his only previous race on the street course back in 2023, Dillon ended up finishing 35th after exiting the race due to suspension issues. After 17 races completed this season, Dillon has six top-20 finishes and an average finish of 23.7. Dillon only scored positive Place Differential once at road course events this season, doing so at COTA, where he also collected his best finish of the season at the track type of 28th. In practice, Dillon ranked 21st in overall lap averages and 28th in five consecutive lap averages. Dillon is not known for being a top road course racer historically, but with his practice speeds being among the top 30 fastest and favorable upside due to his starting position, he is a playable option best suited for cash game lineups.
--Sean Engel - RotoBallerSource: DriverAverages.com
July 6, 2025
Despite his 38th-place starting position and stout $10,000 salary (the fourth-highest in the field), William Byron seems like one of the best options for DFS play at the Chicago Street Course. It's rare for any NASCAR Cup Series points leader to crash out of any qualifying session, which virtually guarantees a large number of Place Differential bonus points. Although this is not one of Byron's best tracks, he has finished in the top fifteen in both Chicago races despite poor qualifying results both years. If he can repeat the feat, he'll score a lot of Place Differential points. The key decision is whether to go all in on Shane van Gisbergen for lap leader and fastest lap points expecting him to dominate the race, or choose both William Byron and Chase Elliott for Place Differential points. Given the volatility endemic to most NASCAR races, the latter is probably the better option.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
July 6, 2025
In an otherwise mediocre 2024, Alex Bowman's one real bright spot came when he won last year's Chicago Street Course race to lock himself into the playoffs. The win was more the result of a brilliant strategy call by Bowman's crew chief Blake Harris than his own doing, as Bowman was running 9th late in Stage 2 before all the drivers in front of him pitted except for Joey Hand to flip the stage. Bowman then passed Hand shortly after the ensuing restart and ended up not having to pit again when the race was shortened 17 laps due to darkness. Bowman had one of the best runs of his career at Mexico City, where he drove from 29th to 4th despite suffering back pain in the previous race at Michigan. With top tens in both previous road races this season and last year's win, he stands a good chance of beating his 11th-place starting position, but at $8,800, he probably costs too much to start when better drivers are starting worse.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
July 6, 2025
Joey Logano is one of the hardest drivers to predict in the NASCAR Cup Series since it's hard to really get a sense of when he will run well or when he won't, and even harder to determine which of his good races will lead to a good finishing result since he blows potentially strong finishes so often. However, one thing you can reasonably count on is his relative road course mediocrity. Although he finished 8th on the Chicago Street Course, he only finished 23rd last year and just ran badly. Since his 2023 race, he has only earned three top ten finishes on road courses and two of those came at the Charlotte roval, which is not very similar to this track. Furthermore, Logano qualified 12th so he will probably lose positions. Although no one should be surprised if he gets a top ten, he will probably finish worse than he starts and therefore he has little DFS value.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
July 6, 2025
Ryan Blaney curiously qualified 17th for the third consecutive year at the Chicago Street Course. Blaney is not particularly noted as a road racer, but he finished 10th in last year's race here, matching his best road course finish since Sonoma last year. Because Blaney is not one of the best road racers, he is available at a cheaper price than usual on DFS ($7,500) but he likely won't improve very much from his 17th-place starting position. The two best strategies for DF players would likely be to focus on Place Differential points by drafting Chase Elliott and William Byron or focusing on laps led and fastest lap points by drafting Shane van Gisbergen. Unfortunately, Blaney is probably too expensive to seriously consider under either scenario, so he is only a middling selection.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
July 6, 2025
Despite Austin Cindric's traditional reputation as a road racer, he's really become more of a specialist on drafting tracks and intermediates lately. Cindric qualified 27th for today's race at the Chicago Street Course, worse than both his teammates Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano. Although he did finish 6th in the inaugural Chicago race in 2023 in a race where he qualified even worse, he has only posted a single finish better than 10th on a road or street course since. He had a little speed at Mexico City but still mostly ran in the middle of the pack. It seems Penske's road course package has not been as great with the Next Gen car as it was with the Gen 6 when Cindric made his early starts. here's certainly the potential for Cindric to blast through the field, but it feels more likely that he won't. Ultimately, he's probably overpriced at $7,800.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
July 6, 2025
After Brad Keselowski's near miss at Atlanta, his season effectively seems to hinge on whether or not he can win the regular season finale at Daytona, since he's unlikely to win anywhere else. As a result, he likely isn't going to be focusing too heavily on today's race at the Chicago Street Course when considering he has been a terrible road racer in recent years and he was rarely good even in his championship-caliber years apart from a few years at Watkins Glen. Keselowski, who has never finished better than 18th at Chicago in two seasons when he made the playoffs, is almost certainly going to lose positions from his 15th-place starting spot in a season he very likely won't make the playoffs. Although he only costs $6,900, there are several drivers who are better options in this price range, including Cole Custer, John Hunter Nemechek, and Justin Haley who are all better road racers who are starting worse.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
July 6, 2025
Much like his teammate Erik Jones, John Hunter Nemechek has had a significant improvement in recent weeks, although in both cases they've only really improved from backmarkers last year to mid-packers this year. Nemechek outqualified Jones for today's race as he starts 25th to Jones's 34th. He is probably a better road racer than Jones. In his only previous start at Chicago, he qualified 12th and ran pretty well, running as high as 4th and having an average running position of 12th before falling to 35th a lap down after spinning out with less than three minutes remaining. Considering both his recent improvement and the fact that he finished 6th to match his best finish outside a drafting track in the last road course race at Mexico City, there's a lot of upside in drafting him for DFS, but certainly not as much as drafting Chase Elliott or William Byron.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
July 6, 2025
After having arguably the most anonymous start to the 2025 season of any driver, Cole Custer finally had his first honest-to-goodness strong run in the last NASCAR Cup Series road course at Mexico City where he finished eighth and delivered one of his best-ever driver ratings. Custer has never started a race on the Chicago Street Course in the NASCAR Cup Series as he was competing full-time in the Xfinity Series when the circuit was introduced. However, he did win the inaugural Xfinity race in dominant fashion when he won from the pole and led all 25 races. Road courses are one of his relative specialties and although he starts 23rd today, he qualified even worse at Mexico City (26th), which indicates he is a strong underdog option who is definitely worthy of consideration. His biggest strengths are that he only costs $6,100 and that many DFS players won't think to draft him.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
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