Giancarlo Stanton 2021 Outlook: Still Top Hitter When Healthy
3 years agoIt's not easy judging the preseason value of someone who only has 166 plate appearances in 41 games (out of a possible 222) since 2019. On those rare occasions Stanton has hit, however, he's largely been the same Stanton as always, including a .267/.394/.496 slash line and a ball he hit 121 mph. Although his average exit velocity and launch angle have come down, his xwOBA, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate have been as good or better than they were from 2016-18. In 2020's tiny sample he even had an expected batting average of .296. So it certainly appears that actually getting into the batter's box is Stanton's issue, not whether he's healthy enough to hit well when he does get into a game. Note some of the semantics here; Stanton did not take the outfield at all in 2020, so he likely only has DH eligibility in your league. That's more worrisome than injury proneness, which isn't generally a significant phenomenon. Stanton's recent health should therefore not discourage you terribly from the prospect of a four-category monster. He's RotoBaller's 94th-ranked player with good reason, but there's a decent gap--something like two rounds--between that and his 121 ADP. Target him in the top 100, especially if you need a high ceiling.