PGA DFS Vegas Report - Waste Management Open

Spencer Aguiar digs into the Vegas golf betting lines to find the best PGA DFS sleepers for the Waste Management Open. His top under-the-radar DraftKings, FanDuel lineup picks are included.

Welcome back to the PGA DFS Vegas Report. Marc Leishman was able to capture his fifth career PGA Tour title, holding on in La Jolla with a one-shot victory over Jon Rahm at the Farmers Insurance Open. Leishman's success shouldn't come as that big of a surprise since we did see him enter the week as the 12th highest-ranked player in the field, but his 50/1 price tag was a substantial number for anyone sharp enough to back him in the futures market.

Personally, it was a frustrating handicapping weekend on my end. Leishman had been a player we had supported in multiple tournaments recently, including the previous time he teed it up to begin the year, but I made an absolute mess at the top of the board with my exposure to Hideki Matsuyama and Xander Schauffele. That left me with very little wiggle room to finish off the card, and for whatever reason, Leishman ended up being excluded. I can't place the blame on anyone but myself since the Aussie did grade out as a positive EV wager for me in my model, but there isn't much we can do now about the missed opportunity. I still think we are reading the boards well and look forward to getting back on track at the Waste Management Open.

My free betting column, which includes first-round leader bets and some of the head-to-head wagers that just missed out on my Vegas Report, can be found here. And if you ever have any questions about a particular bet, player in the field or anything golf-related, be sure to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports.

2020 Waste Management Open

For an in-depth breakdown of the top DraftKings and Fanduel plays, check out Joe Nicely's weekly Horse For The Course that highlights the best fits for the week's course. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!

TPC Scottsdale

7,266 Yards - Par 71 - Greens Bermuda

Perhaps no other event deserves to be played on the same weekend as the Super Bowl more than the Waste Management Open. TPC Scottsdale provides the ultimate party-like atmosphere for both the spectators and players and will be a much-needed getaway for sports fans after last week's devastating NBA news.

A 7,266-yard Par 71, TPC Scottsdale is a relatively easy course by PGA Tour standards. Right around 16-under par has been the average winning score for the past six years, and most of the scoring can be found on the back nine holes -- which helps to add to the wild experience of the event. The par-three 16th hole will garner a lot of attention this week because of the loud environment and football-like atmosphere, but it only grades out ninth in terms of difficulty. Instead, the tournament will likely be won or lost on holes 13, 15 and 17. Thirteen and 15 are par-fives that yield close to a 40 percent birdie rate, and the par-four 17th is the ultimate decider. Measuring only 332 yards and surrounded by water on the left side, both eagle and bogey are in play depending on the quality of the drive.

Water does come into play occasionally in other places at the venue, but most of the hazards can be easily avoided off the tee. The rough is relatively non-existent, and a little extra distance off the tee won't hurt. Par-five scoring will be essential since all three feature nearly a 40 percent birdie rate, and golfers that give themselves quality looks should be rewarded. However, the most important statistic that I will be pinpointing is ball striking. TPC Scottsdale is a ball-strikers course, which is evident by Rickie Fowler, Gary Woodland and Hideki Matsuyama (X2) being the last four winners at this event.

Waste Management Open

#1 - Xander Schauffele - 18/1

DraftKings Price: $9,900 / FanDuel: Price $11,400

Projected DraftKings Ownership Percentage - 16.2%

Last week didn't go quite as planned with Xander Schauffele, but that level of volatility was always on the table as a potential outcome at a venue where he has struggled at in the past. Sometimes all the positive statistics in the world can't overcome whatever the issue is for a player at a course, but I believe we are being given four extra points of value because of his missed cut at Torrey Pines.

I was under the assumption in La Jolla last weekend that 18/1 was a pretty accurate number when we took into account the slightly stronger field and poor past results, but leaving the 26-year-old standing pat in value doesn't properly adjust the benefits that are now thrown back into his favor. Schauffele has provided two top-17 finishes here in his two career attempts and gets an opportunity to get back on Bermuda greens - a surface we have seen him dominate at during his past two efforts at East Lake and the Kapalua Plantation Course. In fact, his nearly five strokes gained putting at TPC Scottsdale last season placed him top-10 in strokes gained on the greens, and it shouldn't take that pronounced of an effort this year with the improvements we have seen him make as a whole.

I don't normally advocate viewing things in this sense because outright prices are often drastically incorrect for 95% of golfers in the field, but Schauffele teed off last season in Phoenix as the third betting option at 14/1. I realize his victory at the Tournament of Champions helped propel that number up marginally, but we are looking at a player that has provided three top-two performances in his last seven events. I have nothing against Webb Simpson, Rickie Fowler or Hideki Matsuyama, but the fact that we are getting Schauffele anywhere between two to four points higher than that mix doesn't make sense from a betting perspective. We are dealing with a case of the ninth-ranked player in the world receiving an inflation in odds because of what others priced around him have done in Arizona, not to mention a mix of what he failed to do last weekend in California. Those two things combined usually screams that value might be lurking, and I think we get a strong rebound effort and a chance at the title with the American this week.

#2 - Collin Morikawa - 35/1

DraftKings Price: $9,200 / FanDuel Price: $10,700

Projected DraftKings Ownership Percentage - 15.6%

There are a lot of names I like in this 30/1 to 40/1 range. Collin Morikawa was the route I decided to go, but I wouldn't necessarily talk anyone off of Sungjae Im or Bubba Watson. I believe Watson's price is a little shallow at 30/1 and would have preferred to back him in the 50s, but I am not sure if there is such a thing of getting him at a proper price in most fields. Sportsbooks do a good job of knowing where he performs, so you usually have to slightly overpay on the surface if you want in for the week. As for Sungjae, it just comes down to overall exposure. There is nothing to say that I can't go heavier with my financial vulnerability to this tournament, but I have a handful of names I like down the board, and Xander is eating up a lot of my business at the top.

My biggest worry this weekend for Morikawa is his long irons. They haven't been great when faced with shots from over 200 yards, but it hasn't necessarily stopped him from posting totals in the past. The youngster's ability to create birdie chances typically outweighs his poor proximity numbers from deep, and I do suppose the lack of trouble lurking from off the tee should help Morikawa to swing freely and get some extra distance on his drives.

It is always challenging to know how sustainable certain levels of success are for young players on tour, but the 22-year-old has a swing that is easily replicated and has shown promise that indicates we might not see him priced in this range for non-majors often in the future.  I don't ordinally find myself in this pricing area backing young players, but Morikawa is a unique talent that has a chance to continue his ascension in Phoenix.

#3 - Scottie Scheffler - 50/1

DraftKings Price: $8,500 / FanDuel Price: $9,900

Projected DraftKings Ownership Percentage - 13.5%

Scottie Scheffler has seen a 17-point decrease with his outright price between the Farmers Insurance Open and the Waste Management. Are we looking at too steep of a decline because of one missed cut? I certainly believe that to be the case.

Everything about Torrey Pines shaped up to be a potential disaster for the 53rd-ranked player in the world. I never love the idea of playing young players at facilities that have proven to be challenging, and Scheffler made an absolute mess of his Thursday round at the South Course by shooting a three-over 75. A 72 on Friday at the more accessible North wasn't much better in reality, but I'll gladly take almost a percent increase in win equity odds from 35 to 50 here in Arizona.

Scheffler has a perfect game that should be needed for TPC Scottsdale, as he not only scores on par-fours better than anyone in the field has been in recent months, but he also has the ball striking skills and distance off the tee to find birdie looks at a venue that doesn't have a ton of trouble around. I have him adequately priced at 35/1 and will gladly take my extra 15 points and run.

#4 - Matthew Wolff - 66/1

DraftKings Price: $8,000 / FanDuel Price: $9,800

Projected DraftKings Ownership Percentage - 11.7%

Matthew Wolff has rendered a mixed bag of results early in his career. We have seen him gain as many as 9.5 shots on the field with his irons during his 3M Open victory but also lose 6.4 strokes just two weeks after that at the Northern Trust.

A lot of the conversation around Wolff's chances will come down to how elite he is with a driver, but there needs to be a more consistent distribution with his complete arsenal, including his big stick that has been known to go wild at times. The reason I like Wolff as much as I do at TPC Scottsdale is because of the freedom of being able to bomb-and-gouge. There are places where you can find trouble at the track, but most of the peril is easily avoidable by going further right or left then you usually would. The rough isn't penal whatsoever, and Wolff's power off the tee should have him in a good spot to clear any of the bunkers that might come into play.

The 20-year-old is going to need to clean up his spotty around the green game if he wants to take the next step with his career, but this venue seems to highlight everything he does well while minimizing his flaws. Wolff runs hot-and-cold with his irons, and I am willing to take a chance on him dialing them in at a price that is most likely at least 20 points too high.

#5 - Corey Conners - 80/1

DraftKings Price: $7,900 / FanDuel Price: $9,600

Projected DraftKings Ownership Percentage - 12.4%

My man Corey Conners. Conners will forever hold a special place for me after winning the Valero Texas Open for us at odds of 200/1 last season. Since then, I haven't found myself really prone to go back to the Canadian in many spots because his outright price reached a level that I didn't find suitable, but we are starting to enter back into a territory that I find intriguing.

Conners is an elite ball-striker that sometimes can become derailed on the greens, but as has been mentioned numerous times throughout this article, putting very well may become neutralized to an extent. Conners' best putting surface is Bermuda, his best results come at birdie fests and his irons will always give him a chance to succeed. The 61st-ranked player in the world gained the second-highest total of his career with his flat stick the last time he teed it up in Hawaii, and if that happens again, we could see him lap the field.

Key Stats

• Ball Striking 20%
• Strokes Gained Approach 20%
• Par-Five Birdie or Better 15%
• Birdie or Better 12.5%
• Par-Four Average 12.5%
• Proximity 150+ Yard 10%
• Driving Distance 10%

Head-to-Head Play of the Week

• Matthew Wolff -110 over Cameron Smith -110
• Matthew Wolff $8,000 price tag on DraftKings vs. Cameron Smith $8,100 price tag
• Matthew Wolff 11.7 percent projected ownership vs. Cameron Smith 5.1 percent projected ownership

1.10 Units to Win 1.00 Units

I alluded to this being my play of the week during the additional head-to-head article that I release every Tuesday. Those three to five recommendations in that piece generally count towards what I label as my "free head-to-head suggestions." I designate it under those terms because it is an enhanced betting card of wagers that I may or may not find myself invested in financially. If you were looking to play the entire board, they should still yield long-term value, but they might present more volatility than I would care to have when releasing a condensed card as I have over the years. That is not to say that the free plays won't end up outperforming my top tip of the week, but they are lower in value for one reason or another.

My play in the Vegas Report is what I classify as my "premium selection." That is meant to signify my strongest play of the week that is returning the most long-term value (according to my math). I try to be as transparent as possible when it comes to the edge I think we have for all wagers in both articles, so it typically shouldn't be that difficult to identify what matchups I have stronger ratings on than others. Everything being released does check out mathematically, but I didn't want to combine the two sections since it can become confusing with how I have structured this article over the years, plus it would paint an incomplete picture if I am not posting every single play I make for an event.

For example, I have actual bets on both Justin Thomas +130 over Jon Rahm and Webb Simpson +160 over Jon Rahm this week, but the Thomas play hasn't been written up for either column. My goal isn't to tout these picks. Instead, they are meant to be used as a tool to identify where some of our most significant edges are in the market and how we can use that to our advantage. I hope that adds some clarity to the questions I have received about where specific information can be found, but all wagers posted will be tracked for individual article purposes. Be sure to check out both features weekly for any subtle hints that may be included, and thanks for all the support you guys have given me to begin 2020.

2020 Head-to-Head Record (6-2-1)

+3.85 Units Year-To-Date From H2H Bets

2020 Outright Bets That Have Finished Inside the Top-10

Yearly Record:

2017 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets (10-2-2) +8.175 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Dustin Johnson Genesis Open (10/1)
Sergio Garcia Masters (50/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open (45/1)
Justin Thomas PGA Championship (35/1)
Dustin Johnson Northern Trust (14/1)

2018 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets (46-24-2) +24.49 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Phil Mickelson WGC-Mexico (22/1)
Bubba Watson WGC- Match Play (45/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open In-Play Wager (14/1)
Dustin Johnson RBC Canadian Open (7/1)
Justin Thomas WGC-Bridgestone (30/1)

2019 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets (16-9-2) +8.33 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Matt Kuchar Mayakoba Golf Classic (66/1)
Corey Conners Valero Texas Open (200/1)
Rory McIlroy RBC Canadian Open  (10/1)
Brooks Koepka WGC- St. Jude Classic (12/1)
Rory McIlroy Tour Championship (8/1)

Career Record (Excluding 2020 Season Results)

Head to Head Bets (72-35-6) +40.995 Units
Outright Winners (15)
Top 5s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 16
2019 - 26
Top 10s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 31
2019 - 41

Golf DFS News and Player Outlooks

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