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Welcome to the latest edition of the PGA DFS Hole-By-Hole Breakdown, where Josh Bennett (@JishSwish) breaks down the course the PGA Tour is playing each week. We think this course breakdown is an important slice of the "PGA DFS pie" and will help change the way you do your research for every tournament. A good understanding of the course that's being played is extremely important before diving into individual players. Each week, this article will give you everything you need to know about the course, strategies players could take, and statistics that fit the specifics of the layout.
This week's Breakdown features TPC Sawgrass for The Players Championship on the PGA Tour. It doesn't matter if it's a major or not, it's a premier event that features the best golfers in the world bringing their "A" games. Their skills will be tested tee-to-green here and players will have to avoid all the water and bunkers spread throughout the course in order to stay in contention. How they manage pressure coming down the stretch on holes with intimidating bodies of water will be a make-or-break for many. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!
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TPC Sawgrass: Par 72, 7275 Yards
Hole 1: Par 4, 423 Yards
Off the Tee: A difficult tee shot to start off the event. The fairway is very narrow, and if they don't have much length they will need to be accurate because the fairway bunker is in play. Otherwise, they'll take tee shots towards the right side of the fairway to avoid a miss left into the trees, and then set up a short approach to the green.
Approach: A wedge or short-iron into this green that's protected by bunkers along the left side. Nothing too difficult about this as long as the tee shot leaves a look at the green. This is a birdie hole as long as the tee shots stay out of the trees. Green Size: 15x35 yards
Advantage: Ball-Striking, SG: Approach, Par 4 Scoring
Hole 2: Par 5, 532 Yards
Off The Tee: Accuracy off the tee here is important. Trees on both sides of the fairway are in play and there is not much room between the narrow fairway and the trees. This is a short par 5 and is reachable by the whole field unless they're hunting for their tee shots in the woods.
Approach: Long irons or fairway wood approaches on this hole by the whole field as long as the tee shot is in play. Small bunkers on the left and right sides may catch some approaches, but the green is small anyway and there will be a lot of chipping back onto this green after the approach. Green Size: 15x30 yards
Advantage: Driving Accuracy, Ball-Striking, SG: Around the Green, Par 5 Scoring
Hole 3: Par 3, 177 Yards
Approach: A medium length par 3 that has to carry water and a large bunker. Another bunker is waiting at the back and back-left for those that take too much club to ensure carrying all the trouble. The green is small, but there should be lots of birdie chances if they hit the green on the tee shot. Green Size: 15x25 yards
Advantage: SG: Approach, GIR, Scrambling, Par 3 Scoring
Hole 4: Par 4, 384 Yards
Off the Tee: Accuracy off this tee shot is important again. There is a lot of room to miss with driver but because of the length of the hole, we will see many hit less than driver to get a better chance at finding the fairway. They will want to be in the fairway on this hole because of the difficulty of the approach.
Approach: Short-irons and wedges to this green that's protected in the front by water. Hitting from the fairway is important because they will not want the unpredictability of a lie in the rough having to carry that water. There are some small bunkers at the back of the green, but they won't be in play much. Pin placements will make sure the water is the main issue. Green Size: 25x20 Yards
Advantage: Driving Accuracy, SG: Approach, Par 4 Scoring
Hole 5: Par 4, 471 Yards
Off the Tee: A long and accurate tee shot is needed on the hardest hole on the course. This hole also starts a tough stretch on the course, so it will be important to get off to a good start. The long fairway bunker is in play for even the longest hitters, and the hole is long so there's no opportunity to lay up off the tee. Bogey is in play if the fairway isn't hit.
Approach: A mid or long-iron approach to a generously-sized green. There are bunkers around the green but they should be far enough off the green that they aren't in play unless the approach is coming from the fairway bunker. Green Size: 20x35 Yards
Advantage: Driving Accuracy, Ball-Striking, Scrambling
Hole 6: Par 4, 393 Yards
Off the Tee: There won't be many drivers hit off this tee. It's a short hole and the whole left side is protected by water, bunkers, and trees, plus the right side is all trees. They'll take a fairway wood or driving iron off the tee and set up a wedge approach to the green.
Approach: The whole field will have wedges into this green that is protected on the left side by several bunkers. A tee shot that is in the fairway makes this a birdie hole for everyone. Green Size: 20x25 Yards
Advantage: SG: Approach, Par 4 Scoring
Hole 7: Par 4, 451 Yards
Off the Tee: The water to the left of the hole is actually expanded to connect with the water we saw on the 6th hole so it's one big body of water now. Although visually intimidating, there is enough room to miss on both sides of his hole so the water shouldn't be in play much. A left miss is more likely to wind up in the bunker than the water.
Approach: A mid or short-iron approach over fairway and green-side bunkers. The closer this approach comes from, the better, because the green is hard to hold. This hole will have birdie opportunities from those that are long and can keep it out of trouble off the tee. Green Size: 15x30 Yards
Advantage: Ball-Striking, SG: Approach, Par 4 Scoring, Scrambling
Hole 8: Par 3, 237 Yards
Approach: A long par 3 with bunkers surrounding the green. The green is large, but, just hitting the green will be good enough on a hole that was in the top 50 most difficult holes last year. Take a par into a nice stretch of score-able holes. Green Size: 25x35 Yards
Advantage: GIR, Scrambling, 3 Putt Avoidance
Hole 9: Par 5, 602 Yards
Off the Tee: The landing area is large off the tee, but long hitters will have to be careful not to miss too far right. The farther down this hole they get, the more narrow it gets. Due to the length of this hole and the small landing spaces at the green, this will be a three-shot hole for the majority of the field.
Approach: The actual approach to the green will likely be a short wedge after a lay up from the tee shot. The green is too small and there is no room to miss safely so we won't see many go after this green in two. Still, as long as the lay up is safely in play, an easy wedge shot into this green only guarded by a bunker in the left and back should yield a lot of birdie chances. Green Size: 15x25 Yards
Advantage: SG: Approach, Par 5 Scoring
Hole 10: Par 4, 424 Yards
Off the Tee: Although it looks like there is enough room to squeeze a driver in on this hole, most of the field will elect to keep driver in the bag and hit a fairway wood or driving iron. Trees are lurking on both sides, as is a bunker on the left. If the ball is carried too far, it will end up rolling through the fairway and into the fairway bunker that splits the fairway. Too much trouble on a hole that isn't very long. A fairway wood should still leave most with a wedge to the green.
Approach: Depending on how far back they lay up to off-the-tee, a wedge or short-iron is all that will be needed to get to this green. There's just one bunker protecting the front of the green, but it's not right against the green so it should not be in play. Like many holes before this one and after this one, as long as the ball stays out of the trees off-the-tee, this is a birdie hole. Green Size: 25x20 Yards
Advantage: SG: Approach, Par 4 Scoring
Hole 11: Par 5, 558 Yards
Off the Tee: A tee shot with a wide-open landing area starts this par 5. As long as they aren't extremely wild on the tee shot, everyone will have a look at this green in two if they want. Hitting this fairway should be pretty easy.
Approach: This hole gives many different options on how to get to the green. They can lay up short of the water or even go over it to the left which leaves short pitches to the green. They can also decide to go right at the green knowing all they have to do is carry the water to be safe, and then use the short game to get a birdie chance. No matter what option is chosen, birdie is on the table for the entire field. Green Size: 10x30 Yards
Advantage: Ball-Striking, SG: Around the Green, SG: Approach, Par 5 Scoring
Hole 12: Par 4, 369 Yards
Off the Tee: We can ignore the image on this hole, as it has been re-done recently and GPS images are not up to date on this hole yet. The measured length is the same, however, the hole now has a water hazard and bunkers running down the left side of this hole. Due to the length and how narrow the fairway is, we will likely see most of the field lay up to around 100 yards.
Approach: Assuming they lay up off the tee, a short wedge is all that's needed to this green. As long as the tee shot stays out of trouble, this is an easy birdie opportunity and an important birdie to have as they head into a difficult final stretch of holes. Green Size: 15x25 Yards
Advantage: Ball-Striking, SG: Approach, SG: Around the Green, Par 4 Scoring
Hole 13: Par 3, 181 Yards
Approach: A medium-length par 3 into a large green that is only protected by water on the left. This hole is much harder when pins are tucked over by the water, but if they move them away from the water this turns into a birdie hole. Green Size: 25x30 Yards
Advantage: SG: Approach, GIR, Par 3 Scoring
Hole 14: Par 4, 481 Yards
Off the Tee: This hole is made difficult by its length. The fairway shouldn't be difficult to hit, and misses right should still be okay since they'll have a look at the green from that side. They just have to make sure they do not miss left into the bunker (or worse, water). Bogey or worse is in play with any ball that goes left.
Approach: This approach will be with a long iron and may have to bend around trees on the left if the tee shot goes too far that way. The green is large and is protected on all sides by bunkers. Par is in play with a good tee shot and will be a good score on this hole. Green Size: 20x35 Yards
Advantage: Ball-Striking, GIR, Scrambling
Hole 15: Par 4, 470 Yards
Off the Tee: It's a little surprising this hole doesn't play harder than the stats say. The landing area is small and trees on the left have to be avoided which brings the fairway bunker into play for everyone. This tee shot needs to be accurate to have a shot at the green.
Approach: A mid or long-iron to this green that is thin and protected by bunkers on the left and right sides, although the bunkers on the right are very small. Hitting the green is the priority since it is small and the approach is coming from a lengthy distance. Par is a good score here heading into a couple scoring holes before the final test. Green Size: 15x35 Yards
Advantage: Driving Accuracy, GIR, Scrambling
Hole 16: Par 5, 523 Yards
Off the Tee: Another wide fairway off this par 5 that plays as one of the easiest holes on Tour. It's a short par 5, so they just need to get the driver out in or near the fairway to have a go at the green.
Approach: The whole field can take this green on if they choose to, and many will only need irons to do so. There is also a large lay up zone about 90 yards away from the green that some may use. Either way, there is water protecting the right side of the green so the approach obviously needs to stay left. As long as the water is taken out of play on the second shot, birdie is looking promising. Green Size: 20x30 Yards
Advantage: SG: Approach, GIR, SG: Around the Green, Par 5 Scoring
Hole 17: Par 3, 137 Yards
Approach: Unless there is wind back into the players, they'll all hit wedges into the famous island green. The water is intimidating which increases the difficulty of this shot, plus pin positions entice aggressive lines. In general, this green should not be hard to hit, but things like pin placement, wind, and pressure will play a big factor in where this shot ends up. Green Size: 25x20 Yards
Advantage: SG: Approach, Par 3 Scoring
Hole 18: Par 4, 462 Yards
Off the Tee: One of the most difficult closing holes on Tour doesn't have a weakness. Off the tee, they have to stay far enough right to avoid the water, but then the trees on the right become a problem. Accuracy is extremely important on this tee shot because the approach doesn't get any easier.
Approach: A medium-length approach to a green that is defended mainly by the water on the left. There is a bunker at the very back of the green, but we won't see many error that long. With pin placements likely to be near the water, this approach needs to be accurate to finish the round with a par at worst. Green Size: 25x30 Yards
Advantage: Driving Accuracy, Ball-Striking, SG: Approach, Scrambling
Conclusions
This course has some length to it, but length on most of these holes means nothing if the ball isn't going straight. There are a lot of fairway bunkers and water, plus trees line most fairways. Driving Accuracy and good Ball-Strikers are the type of player to lean to this weekend.
The greens are average in size, and between drives missing fairways and approaches missing greens, guys that will be in contention on the weekend will be good scramblers.
On the handful of scoring holes throughout the course, good iron players that have good Strokes Gained: Approach numbers will do a lot of the scoring. There are many approaches from short-to-medium length that good iron players will take advantage of.
Like many par 72 courses, there are four par 5's and all of them play under par. Those that get birdies on the par 5's will set themselves apart from the rest of the field.
Other stats to consider: Par 4 Scoring, Par 3 Scoring, GIR, SG: Around the Green, Bogey Avoidance
Assumptions
Images and measurements were done on Google Earth. These satellite images can sometimes be up to five or more years old and not show very recent changes to courses if there were any.
Carry distance is used for off-the-tee distances shown in the images. The average carry distance on tour in 2021 was 281 yards, so that is what is used here.
I used a total dispersion off-the-tee of 60 yards. This comes from an article that Jon Sherman wrote for Practical Golf (@practicalgolf) discussing average dispersion, and I took 5-10 yards off from that number.
I assumed a 10-15 yard roll out from the carry distance to start the measurement to the green. Measurements to the green were rounded to the nearest five yards and measured from the center of the fairway to the center of the green.
Green measurements were also measured to the nearest five yards.
Things like weather, rough length, elevation, etc. are not taken into consideration on the measurements. I can only see and assume so much from satellite images. However, I do note where possible on each hole if things like elevation and wind could impact how the hole plays.
Scorecard:
