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Read our best NRFI betting picks today - Major League Baseball NRFI predictions for 5/12/2025. No Runs First Inning (NRFI) betting tips, expert MLB predictions, odds, and trends.
The weather is warming up, which has helped offenses across the league start to score more runs. That's right, the NRFI is under attack! The offensive surge will force me to consider YRFIs more often, but it's also going to keep our NFRI odds in check, too.
It's still a NRFI day for me, as I have five spots circled on tonight's 11-game slate that I am going to target with NRFI bets. We have some good pitching matchups and some strong offensive trends to back these plays, which I will break down for you here.
On this page, I'll provide my best NRFI bets today for MLB games on Monday, May 12, 2025. Monitor the weather and lineups for each team before placing your wagers. Odds for these bets today are from DraftKings Sportsbook.
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What Are MLB NRFI/YRFI Bets?
NRFI bets are picks where you determine whether or not two MLB teams will score one run in the first inning. YRFI stands for "Yes Run First Inning," while NRFI means "No Run First Inning."
These are popular bets because bettors only have to sweat out the first inning and not the outcome of the entire game. The most common outcome for the first inning is a NRFI, so usually the odds will reflect that, with NRFI bets carrying shorter odds when compared to YRFIs.
Even the best offenses in baseball are still only scoring a run in roughly 50% of their first innings. Every day, I'll weigh the Vegas odds against what I calculate to be the expected probability of an NRFI/YRFI in each MLB game and provide my top NRFI picks and/or YRFI picks for your consideration.
Best First Inning Bets Today (May 12, 2025)
- Milwaukee Brewers at Cleveland Guardians (6:10 pm)
- St. Louis Cardinals at Philadelphia Phillies (6:45 pm)
- Pittsburgh Pirates at New York Mets (7:10 pm)
- Colorado Rockies at Texas Rangers (8:05 pm)
- Kansas City Royals at Houston Astros (8:10 pm)
Milwaukee Brewers at Cleveland Guardians NRFI (-120 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers (NRFI record)
- MIL: Freddy Peralta (6-2)
- CLE: Ben Lively (7-1)
One of these names jumps off the page as an ace, while the other starter is a journeyman veteran who is not nearly as well-regarded. While Peralta is easily the better pitcher when judged by just about any metric, it's been Lively who has been slightly better in terms of his NRFI record.
Now, he usually makes it interesting. Lively has allowed at least one baserunner in five straight starts, but he has been able to wiggle free of any first scoring most of the time and has allowed only one first-inning home run. Peralta has a much better first-inning WHIP, but has been victimized by the long ball three times, two of those coming in the same start.
This all boils down to the offenses for me. Both teams have a 76% NRFI rate on the season and are 8-2 on NRFIs over their last ten games. We are getting some really good odds here, probably because of Lively and the uncertainty surrounding him. My guess is that if it were a better Cleveland pitcher going today, we'd see this game somewhere in the -140 range.
St. Louis Cardinals at Philadelphia Phillies NRFI (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers (NRFI record)
- STL: Matthew Liberatore (6-1)
- PHI: Cristopher Sanchez (4-3)
Unless you have been living in a cave, you probably noticed that Matthew Liberatore is breaking out for the Cards in a big way. The former top prospect and left-hander has been fantastic so far this season, and that success has been on display in the first inning, too, as he has run his NRFI streak to five straight over the last month.
Matthew Liberatore's 3Ks in the 1st. pic.twitter.com/dopISPgQA4
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 6, 2025
Cristopher Sanchez is having a solid season of his own, even if he hasn't been quite as dominant in the first frame. Sanchez and Liberatore have some of the best season-long stats of all the pitchers going today, both sporting impressive SIERAs in the low threes.
These offenses are both pretty good, with the Phillies being the 7th-best team at scoring in the first inning with a 33% YRFI rate. However, both teams are 7-3 on NRFIs over their last ten games, and I have to give the starting pitchers both the advantage here as they both come into this game in excellent form.
Pittsburgh Pirates at New York Mets NRFI (-150 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers (NRFI record)
- PIT: Paul Skenes (8-0)
- NYM: David Peterson (6-1)
We're stretched to the limit here, and for future reference, I won't ever recommend a NRFI bet with odds any shorter than these at -150. However, these odds are probably justified as Paul Skenes has been perfect in the first inning and is facing a Mets team that ranks fourth-worst at a 76% NRFI rate.
We know what Skenes can do, but let's focus for a minute on David Peterson, who has emerged as a legit starter for the Mets this season. Peterson has been even better than Skenes at limiting first-inning baserunners with a 0.43 WHIP (Skenes is at 0.63) through his first seven starts.
David Peterson's 3Ks in the 3rd. pic.twitter.com/giExraoLsX
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 7, 2025
I never seem to get the Pirates right, but this one looks pretty safe tonight, especially considering that Peterson is a lefty, which puts the Pirates on the wrong side of their hitting splits. If you don't like making straight bets with these short odds, then consider parlaying this game with your favorite money line bet tonight.
Colorado Rockies at Texas Rangers NRFI (-125 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers (NRFI record)
- COL: Chase Dollander (4-2)
- TEX: Tyler Mahle (7-1)
We have a lot of things working in our favor for a NRFI here today. First of all, we get the Rockies outside of Coors Field, which makes their offense one of the worst in the major leagues. But it also puts their young ace, Dollander, on the right side of his home/road splits as his ERA is a full two and a half points lower outside of Coors (surprised?)
Dollander has been flawless in his last four first innings and has just a 0.50 first-inning WHIP this season. Meanwhile, Mahle has had just one hiccup this season when he struggled against the Athletics two starts ago.
We know the Rockies' lineup can struggle on the road, and they also are bad in the first inning with an 80% NRFI rate. But Texas is struggling, too, with a 73% NRFI rate and an 8-2 NRFI record over their last ten games.
Both pitchers have good matchups here, and the park factor favors the pitchers as well.
Kansas City Royals at Houston Astros NRFI (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers (NRFI record)
- KCR: Michael Wacha (8-0)
- HOU: Ryan Gusto (2-2)
The Royals continue to get the most out of their starting pitchers, as Michael Wacha is having yet another solid campaign so far this season. Wacha has the best projection of the day for a clean first inning when you combine his perfect 8-0 NRFI rate with the Astros' MLB-worst NRFI rate of 85%.
Michael Wacha was great today against the White Sox..
He is becoming quite the streamer when a good matchup presents itself.
7IP 3H 0ER 1BB 5Ks.. lowered his season ERA to 2.98pic.twitter.com/0HGzWlEVrp
— Nicho Roessler (@NichoRoessler) May 8, 2025
The half inning I worry a little more about is Ryan Gusto against the Royals' bats. While KC was scuffling for most of April, their bats have woken up of late, and their offense is trending up. However, their first-inning trends are still favoring a NRFI as they are 9-1 over their last ten games on NRFIs.
Gusto started in the bullpen, but has been effective as a starter since entering the rotation. His numbers are pretty impressive across the board, and I think he has the potential to be a very good pitcher at the MLB level. He will have to retire Bobby Witt Jr. and Vinny Pasquantino in the first frame, but I think he's got a good chance of doing it.
Notable NRFI/YRFI MLB Trends: Last 10 Games
- Longest NRFI Streak: Royals, Marlins, Red Sox (9-1)
- Best YRFI hit rate: Athletics, Angels (50%)
- Most First Inning Home Runs: Angels, D-Backs (3)
- Best First Inning Batting Average: Blue Jays (.372)
- Best First Inning On Base Percentage: Reds (.492)
Despite the recent surge in offense across Major League Baseball, there’s still plenty of value to be found when targeting MLB NRFI bets. Careful analysis of pitching matchups, team trends, and first-inning data continues to reveal strong edges for bettors.
If you're looking to stay ahead of the curve, make sure to check back daily for the best NRFI bets today. By staying disciplined and using sharp data, you can continue to profit even as the market adjusts to changing offensive environments. As always, monitor lineups and weather before locking in your picks, and may your first innings be scoreless!
Good luck, RotoBallers, and thanks for reading!
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