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RotoBaller's NHL Premium Picks and Analysis for the DFS slate on FanDuel and DraftKings on November 25, 2023.
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The wacky Thanksgiving Week NHL schedule continues with a baby six-game slate on a Saturday night. Many of these teams played on Friday, so it’s expected that there will be backup goalies galore for this slate. That could mean that we are in for some strong offense, or it means that some unexpected standout performances could be headed our way in net. The slate is split perfectly with three games starting early and three games starting late; opening up late swap opportunities and a late-night slate worth looking into.
DraftKings has its usual array of low-cost GPP options; four of which cost $20 or less to enter and have a top prize of $1,000 or more, highlighted by the $15-entry Kick Save with a top prize of $10,000. Meanwhile, Fanduel has a $4.44 entry tournament with a $2,000 first prize and a $33 entry, 71-person GPP with $500 for first place. There is a lot of money out there for big spenders and casual players alike. Let’s get that cash!
This is going to be a fun slate with a ton of stacking options. My goal is to help you narrow down your plays to get the most bang for your DFS buck. Be sure to check out all of our NHL articles and NHL DFS tools, including our daily NHL Heat Map. NHL Premium members can find many members of the RotoBaller NHL team in Discord leading up to lock to answer all of your lineup questions.
Top Three Stacks of the Night
Vegas Golden Knights (VGK1 - Jonathan Marchessault, Jack Eichel, Ivan Barbashev, Shea Theodore)
This line has the single-best matchup of any line on the slate. First of all, they play at home and that’s always a plus, but it’s especially true tonight as this is the first game for Vegas at the Fortress in over two weeks. Secondly, they get an Arizona Coyotes defense that looks to have some negative regression heading their way defensively on the road.
They project to allow 2.8 goals per 60 in five-on-five situations but they’ve allowed only 2.45 goals. The ‘Yotes also surrender 13.51 high-danger chances per game on the road, which is tied for the second most on the slate. Finally, the Knights top line projects to spend a vast majority of their ice time facing the defensive pairing of Stecher/Brown, quite possibly the worst in the NHL.
The trio of Jack Eichel, Jonathan Marchessault, and Shea Theodore have scored double-digit fantasy points ten times in the last four games (three for Eichel/Theodore and all four games for Marchessault). That’s a recipe for GPP success. Ivan Barbashev doesn’t do much, but it’s hard to leave off the third man on a top line when he’s only $3,500 and can be the difference for your lineup if he happens to score a goal (the Brandon Hagel Corollary).
"Gets it back, shoots and scores!"
"Eichel in overtime! Knights two, Stars one!"
Jack Eichel scores the @GoldenKnights' first OT winner of the year to beat the Dallas Stars. pic.twitter.com/RGpd1l2l7l
— Golden Knights Radio (@VGKRadioNetwork) November 23, 2023
Pittsburgh Penguins (PIT1 - Sidney Crosby, Jake Guentzel, Drew O’Connor, Erik Karlsson)
Joseph Woll started this season looking like the best goalie in the NHL. Over his first four games, he allowed a total of five goals. In his last six starts, he’s allowed three or more goals five times. Clearly, some of the shine has rubbed off from his game. As a team, the Leafs are allowing 1.17 fewer goals per 60 minutes on the road than was expected, while giving up 13.2 high-danger chances per game. The Penguins, on the other hand, have played well this year, yet they have scored almost three-quarters of a goal less per 60 minutes than expected at home.
We love to attack when negative defensive regression meets up with positive offensive regression, especially when that defense has a struggling goalie and that offense is as stout as the Penguins. With Bryan Rust injured, Drew O’Connor has moved up to the top line for the Pens, and his $3,500 price point makes it easier to stomach the high prices of the rest of this stack.
Vancouver Canucks (VAN2 - J.T. Miller, Brock Boeser, Anthony Beauvillier, Quinn Hughes)
Any team that faces the Sharks is going to find its way onto the Top Stacks list. San Jose has one of the worst defenses in the league, allowing a ridiculously high 15.79 high-danger chances per game at home this year. Even with some positive defensive regression, the Sharks are projected to allow 3.27 goals per 60 at home, which is one of the highest numbers in the league. Vancouver has been strong offensively all year, and that’s not likely to change in this game.
Since they were last featured in this article, the Canucks have added Anthony Beauvillier to their second line, replacing Phillip Di Giuseppe. They are priced identically, but this is a positive move for fantasy as Beauvillier is a far superior offensive player. We are adding Quinn Hughes to this stack since he plays on the top power play line with J.T. Miller and Brock Boeser, giving us another level of correlation.
Others in consideration: TOR2, PHI1
Top Value Stack of the Night
San Jose Sharks (SJ3 - Luke Kunin, Mike Hoffman, Nico Sturm)
There are not many value stacks that are popping on the Heat Map today, which is actually a very rare occurrence. In fact, the only stack that I’d consider “cheap” that has a positive game environment is the third line for the San Jose Sharks. They are far from a quality trio, but data suggests that the team is due for positive offensive regression, while the Canucks defense should continue to negatively regress towards about three goals per 60 minutes allowed in five-on-five situations.
The two saving graces for this line are that they are incredibly inexpensive and that the Canucks allow the second most high-danger chances of any team on the slate (behind only the Sharks). Keep an eye on the Heat Map and Discord for any other value lines that stand out as news comes out during the day.
Top Goalies to Target
Dan Vladar (Calgary Flames)
As I alluded to in the opening, goalie is not a position of strength on this slate, so I’m going to trust the data and ride with Dan Vladar. He really hasn’t done much to instill confidence this year, considering his 3.70 goals against average and 0.868 save percentage; both of which are bad numbers. Still, he’s won 60% of his starts and has produced double-digit fantasy points three times. Advanced data says that the Avalanche are due for negative regression offensively at home, as they are scoring one and a half more goals per 60 minutes than expected in five-on-five situations.
Meanwhile, the Flames have allowed nearly a full goal per game more on the road under the same conditions, and team-expected goals are one of the highest correlated indicators of goalie success. If Calgary and Colorado play to expectations, then Vladar is going to come through as a surprisingly strong goalie option at a rock-bottom price point of just $7100. This is a GPP play only, with someone like Adin Hill or Casey DeSmith providing more of a safety net for cash games.
Others in consideration (GPP): Joseph Woll, Tristan Jarry, Connor Ingram, Ivan Prosvetsov
Others in consideration (Cash): Adin Hill, Casey DeSmith
