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Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season is back and I am thrilled to be covering this sport over at RotoBaller! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel for Saturday, February 20th, 2021 at 7:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @ChrisWasselDFS as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!
NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 2/20
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- New York Islanders vs. Pittsburgh Penguins
- San Jose Sharks vs. St. Louis Blues
- Nashville Predators vs. Columbus Blue Jackets
- Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Montreal Canadiens
- Los Angeles Kings vs. Arizona Coyotes
- Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Carolina Hurricanes
- Edmonton Oilers vs. Calgary Flames
- Minnesota Wils vs. Anaheim Ducks
NHL DFS Goalie Analysis
With a medium eight-game main slate, picking the right goalie is still important but not life and death. Out of the 16 goaltenders, which goalie gives the player the best chance at the most DFS points? Does one even touch the two North Division clashes? It's a great question. Picking between these goaltenders may just be too rough of a proposition for most to stomach.
The matchup that generates some intrigue is the Minnesota Wild vs. Anaheim Ducks. From a hockey standpoint, this would not move the needle. However, from a DFS perspective, this might be a bit more interesting. Also, does one come back to John Gibson after a horrible performance, or does one pivot to Kaapo Kahkonen, who enjoyed a leisurely 16-save win on Thursday night versus Anaheim?
NHL DFS Power Play Analysis
The Florida Panthers are sadly not on the main slate. However, Toronto and Montreal are along with Edmonton and Calgary (again). Tampa Bay and Carolina renew acquaintances as well. Finally, Pittsburgh and the New York Islanders play each other once more. Sidney Crosby plays in his 1000th game for the Penguins.
It will be easier to avoid Connor McDavid again on Saturday night versus Calgary but might want to hedge a few shares in him after last night's off night.
The earlier North Division game features Toronto and Montreal who typically score a lot of goals when they get together. Chances should be plenty and both teams are capable of giving up three or more goals with ease. The last matchup was a 2-1 dud but expectations are higher in this clash from the Bell Centre in Montreal.
Los Angeles and that top line with Dustin Brown could surprise again tonight. They fare well against Arizona and honestly the Coyotes, off the ice, are a chaotic mess. On it, they are not all that much better currently. There are spots with lower ownership that can be picked on. Both San Jose and St. Louis could give up some goals tonight too as even the Blues are still wildly inconsistent on defense. They did look a little better on Thursday but the Sharks had their opportunities.
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NHL DFS Core Plays
The Core plays below are the players that you should focus on incorporating into your cash game builds and tournament builds. When it comes to cash games, you want guys that offer high floors that rack up peripheral stats (shots, blocks, etc).
When it comes to tournaments, it is best to take a core play and see who their linemates are and build line stacks based on that. I will give 2-3 plays (varies on slate size) at each position at different pricing ranges so that you can have a variety of plays to choose from when building your cash builds. Today's slate will be kept simple but more plays available on social media as line changes and goalie confirmations roll in later in the day.
NHL DFS Center Picks
- Auston Matthews, TOR ($8,800 DK / $8,900 FD) - Matthews is our top pick because of the goal potential. He keeps scoring goals (12 in the last ten games). The last time the Toronto center went without a goal or assist was January 15th against Ottawa. Yes, the shot bonus is in play for DraftKings, and Matthews averages over four shots a game. Pairing Matthews with a Jason Spezza or defenseman could help here. Again, Montreal gives up the seventh-most DFS points to centers. These two teams often trade chances and the Matthews line will do that to create more opportunities. That is the nature of the beast when it comes to Toronto's top line. Matthews has had some bad luck recently against Montreal (no goals but three assists on 15 shots). He has hit iron twice.
- Sam Steel, ANA ($2,900 DK / $3,200 FD) - We are digging into the lowest tiers tonight to scour out value. Steel has been a nice find for us as Anaheim is playing him in a top-six role once more. Let the kids play for better or for worse. He has points in his last two games and though the shot volume is far from glorious, it is something. Anaheim generates so little but they are playing a banged up and sick Minnesota team. At some point, a home bounce has to help. Five shots in the past two games compared to five in the previous seven is an improvement. Keep shooting Sam.
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau, NYI ($4,600 DK/ $4,600 FD) - There are lots of risks with Pageau because he can go ice-cold scoring at any time. However, he can block shots as he did on Thursday (3 which hit the DraftKings bonus). Again, he still gets top-six ice time no matter the flow of the game it seems. His price has stayed steady for the most part and the Islanders do hold a plus matchup against the Penguins.
- Brayden Schenn, STL ($6,000 DK/ $6,400 FD) - Take advantage of the center designation always here. Schenn is averaging nearly four shots a game over his last ten game. Also, he has four goals and eight points in his previous nine contests. He has three goals in three meetings versus the Sharks this season along with 12 shots and ten scoring chances. This makes David Perron pricey but valuable on Saturday as San Jose gives up a lot to center but is league-worst DFS wise against wingers.
This is again a medium slate but do not get overly cute. As we mentioned above, it is okay to look at value players because the slate dictates looking at more than the usual suspects. Someone is going to go off unexpectedly which is inevitable but the case that some middle-six lines could in multitude. It seems expected.
NHL DFS Wing Picks
- Dustin Brown, LAK ($5,300 DK / $6,100 FD) - It is too hard not to try and take one more shot at this with Brown riding a four-game point streak. Yes, there is going to be some hard regression and his shot volume is around 2.5 shots per game which seems unsustainable too. Yet, Brown keeps finding ways to be at the right place at the right time offensively. What may be more intriguing going forward is Alex Iafallo who has seven points in his last nine games and is generating three shots and scoring chances a night. Iafallo drives this line much like a Zach Hyman did for the top-line in Toronto for a good stretch.
- Brock McGinn, CAR ($4,200 DK / $4,200 FD) - Some value can be found once again with McGinn as he has managed to stay on the top line in Carolina for longer than anyone has expected. The result has been seven goals and ten points in his last ten games. As long as he produces, McGinn will stay where he is at. The fact that his price has not gone up significantly is a bit of a surprise. However, take advantage of this fact before it gets too late. Tonight may be the last night to take advantage of this. From a value perspective, if one wants to upgrade here, look at Connor Garland on FanDuel only at just $5,400. Garland also generates nearly four shots a game and is a better top-line winger.
- Jordan Kyrou, STL ($4,700 DK/ $4,300 FD - He is still priced low enough but for how long? Kyrou has struggled over his past seven games (just two points and 12 shots) but has a plus matchup tonight versus San Jose again. Injuries gift him another night in the top-six at least for the Blues. A few good performances boost his value but he must hit the net. Kyrou had several shots blocked and several missed the mark by a lot in his last game. That is concerning going forward but the talent is still there.
- Cam Atkinson, CBJ ($6,200 DK/ $6,700 FD) - Atkinson and Laine are almost interchangeable to a point but Atkinson is firing shots as he used to. More importantly, the player appears 100% for the first time in a long time. He has six goals and 11 points in his previous ten games. With Nashville's penalty kill being near the bottom of the league, Atkinson should have scoring chances in all phases even short-handed tonight. His price is still in the lower end of the upper tier.
Please understand that there will be some inevitable in-game shifts particularly if there are any goalie changes in the later games. These are situations to keep an eye on. Look at how much Blake Wheeler has dropped on DraftKings ($5,000) for example. On social media and Slack, we will try to spot some of these possible buy-low candidates.
NHL DFS Defenseman Picks
- Tyson Barrie, EDM ($6,400 DK / $5,500 FD) - Barrie has been a bit off the past two games but managed an assist last night versus Calgary. He missed several wide-open looks and appeared out of position like he was back in Toronto. Maybe he can get it together tonight a bit as his value still lies more on FanDuel if he does not hit the shot bonus on DraftKings. He is still averaging nearly four shots a night and has real-world point a game potential. Darnell Nurse and Drew Doughty are good alternatives here. Nurse has the best floor among the upper-tiered defensemen tonight with Jeff Petry struggling a bit.
- Rasmus Andersson, CGY ($4,200 DK / $4,300 FD) - Let's keep this simple. Andersson has points in three of his last four games but the Andersson we saw last night needs to come to the rink every single night. He had a goal on five shots, created three scoring chances, and nearly a few others. That intensity and attention to detail must be there for the younger blueliner with Calgary starving for anything from their back end. Calgary gets too predictable most of the time with their attack. Andersson changes that when his game is on.
Sneaking in Evan Bouchard again might be worth it from Edmonton as well. His price is at a value tier and he does have an above-average shot (SEE IF HE PLAYS). Expect a few more picks as we get some line matchups later in the day. For value options, pairing shifts will be more significant.
NHL DFS Goalie Picks
- Elvis Merzilikins, CBJ ($7,900 DK / $7,400 FD) - With the higher chance of a win, Merzilkins is the choice here provided he starts. That is the problem. The 1B has been the much better goalie as Joonas Korpisalo has allowed five or more goals in four of his last six starts. A .842 save percentage in February has opened the door for Merzilkins. His last start was a 32-save shutout on Thursday versus the very same Nashville Predators. Given tonight's slate, if the Columbus goalie does start, expect his ownership to be a good deal higher than usual and for valid reasons.
Other goalies to consider: WAIT FOR CONFIRMATIONS (back to back scenarios)
Note: If you do roster a goalie listed above, it is sometimes best to make different lineups in tournaments and take the opposing offense against them incase he gives up a few goals while that opposing team carries lower ownership.
Favorite NHL DFS Line Stacks
- STL 1
- Kyrou/ O'Reilly/ Perron (Faulk, D-men add on)
- LAK 1
- Kopitar/ Brown/ Iafallo (Doughty, D-men add on)
- CBJ PP 1
- Laine/ Roslovic/ Atkinson (Jones, D-men add on)
Other Stacks to consider: TOR PP 1, EDM 2, CAR 2, TBL 3, ARZ 1, MIN 2, CGY 2, MTL 2
Key Abbreviations:
xGF/60= expected goal for per 60 minutes of ice time
GF/60= goals for per 60 minutes of ice time
SC/60= Scoring Chances per 60 minutes of ice time
If you have any additional questions, make sure to reach out to me on Twitter or in our NHL room at the RotoBaller slack chat!
