RADIO
Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season is rolling along and I am thrilled to be covering this sport over at RotoBaller! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel for Wednesday, March 24th, 2021 at 8:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @ChrisWasselDFS as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!
NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 3/24
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- Buffalo Sabres vs. Pittsburgh Penguins
- Winnipeg Jets vs. Vancouver Canucks
- Los Angeles Kings vs. San Jose Sharks
NHL DFS Goalie Analysis
With a three-game main slate, picking the right goalie is still important but not life and death. Out of the six goaltenders, which goalie gives the player the best chance at the most DFS points? Does one choose the right North Division goalie? They are both great questions. Picking between these goaltenders may just be too rough of a proposition for most to stomach.
The matchup that generates some intrigue is the San Jose Sharks vs. Los Angeles Kings. From a hockey standpoint, this would not move the needle. However, from a DFS perspective, this might be a bit more interesting. Also, Buffalo and Pittsburgh may see some seriously lopsided ownership of whoever starts for Pittsburgh -- it should be Tristan Jarry. Should.
NHL DFS Power Play Analysis
The San Jose Sharks and Los Angeles Kings may actually offer the most scoring potential but the Winnipeg Jets and Vancouver Canucks have the numbers on their side. Which players does one choose?
It will be a bit more challenging on this slate to stack lines, but also more likely to do game stacks in some form or another.
Does the Winnipeg and Vancouver game turn into a goalie duel? That is always possible with Thatcher Demko and Connor Hellebuyck. However, it could go the other way.
Finally, this main slate is more like what one will see during the early rounds of the playoffs (3-5 games). These slates will feature enticing matchups and maybe that one which screams lean heavy to one side.
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NHL DFS Core Plays
The Core plays below are the players that you should focus on incorporating into your cash game builds and tournament builds. When it comes to cash games, you want guys that offer high floors that rack up peripheral stats (shots, blocks, etc).
When it comes to tournaments, it is best to take a core play and see who their linemates are and build line stacks based on that. I will give 2-3 plays (varies on slate size) at each position at different pricing ranges so that you can have a variety of plays to choose from when building your cash builds. Today's slate will be kept simple again but more plays available on social media as line changes and goalie confirmations roll in later in the day.
NHL DFS Center Picks
- Sidney Crosby, EDM ($7,700 DK / $8,100 FD) - Crosby is our top pick because of the matchup against Buffalo. He has another point streak going and has hit the DraftKings shot bonus five times in the last 12 contests. The center fired four shots on Sunday against New Jersey and scored a goal. He had four scoring chances and hit a post. Pittsburgh's top line cannot be matched by Buffalo at this point. Also, with the Buffalo Sabres down to their third or fourth-string goaltender, it is hard to stay away from the Crosby line as a whole. Jake Guentzel and/or Bryan Rust can be stacked here but maybe look to a defensive kicker for differentiation.
- Pierre Luc-Dubois, WPG ($4,800 DK / $5,400 FD) - We are digging lower as Dubois has managed to increase his shot volume a bit since arriving in Winnipeg. He has seven points in the last ten games while averaging 2.2 shots per game. While he may not fully crack the top power-play unit with the Jets, he remains a threat at even-strength. It is safe to say he has adapted to his new role. With quite a few injuries, Dubois climbs up the ladder a bit tonight. Tomas Hertl and Logan Couture have good numbers against the Los Angeles Kings career-wise as possible alternatives.
This is again a small slate. As we mentioned above, it is okay to look at value players because the slate dictates looking at more than the usual suspects. Someone is going to go off unexpectedly which is inevitable but the case that some middle-six lines could in multitude. Watch for some line shifts -- especially with San Jose and Los Angeles. Finally, expect the unexpected.
NHL DFS Wing Picks
- Jeff Skinner, BUF ($2,800 DK / $3,800 FD) - It has begun. The return of Jeff Skinner has come. Okay, this may be exaggerated. However, Skinner is playing better hockey with points in two of his previous three games. He had six shots on goal and a tally against the New York Rangers on Monday night. His price is so low that plugging him in does little harm to one's lineup. If he starts to see top-six minutes, this may be the time to buy in on the ground floor. Even Pittsburgh is a little leaky defensively and could allow 2-3 goals at a moment's notice.
- Kyle Connor, WPG ($6,500 DK/ $7,000 FD) - Connor is a streaky type of sniper that seems to get hot at the right time. He had four goals in the two games versus Montreal and may have similar potential against Vancouver -- who has arguably a more porous defense. Connor had four shots and four scoring chances in the last meeting on Monday. With this short of a slate, looking for players who can score goals is essential while maintaining good shot volume. Evander Kane fits into this group as well especially with the matchup versus the Los Angeles Kings.
Please understand that there will be some inevitable in-game shifts particularly if there are any goalie changes in the later games. These are situations to keep an eye on. Simply watch to see line shifts in the later games. On social media and Slack, we will try to spot some of these possible buy-low candidates.
NHL DFS Defenseman Picks
- Kris Letang, PIT ($6,800 DK / $6,000 FD) - So, Letang is going up against one of the historically bad teams of the last decade. Buffalo has lost 14 straight games while giving up 4+ goals a game in the process. The defenseman has averaged three shots a game over the last ten with just six assists. Just? He has had some bad luck with the good shot volume. Letang has nine shots on goal in two meetings against Buffalo with eight scoring chances and two assists. Again, maybe a goal is due here.
- Josh Morrissey, WPG ($4,800 DK / $4,600 FD) - Let's keep this simple. Morrissey's blocked shot potential is huge again on Wednesday night as the defenseman has averaged nearly three shots on goal and two blocks a night. With his ability to get pucks on the net, the idea is to head down the tiers to find plays that can yield a bit more value even this shorter slate. Surprisingly to some, Morrissey has three assists in his last four games.
Rostering players against the grain a bit may pay off tonight. Take advantage of it! Value plays are very hit and miss tonight because of how this slate is set up. Keep that in mind as one is looking at stacking lines and creating lineups. Players like Travis Hamonic and Sean Walker carry some intrigue from the value tier.
NHL DFS Goalie Picks
- Many apologies will be needed for what we have to say. First, see below.
Goalies to consider: WAIT FOR CONFIRMATIONS (the shorter slate and risk are high tonight).
Note: If you do roster a goalie that seems higher-risk to you, it is sometimes best to make different lineups in tournaments. Watch to see who starts for Los Angeles, etc. There were no confirmations at press time. However, one is looking for shot volume and marginally decent matchups. Tristan Jarry will be the highest-owned starter tonight if he starts. The key tonight may just be patience in waiting to see who starts and does not start. Confirmations on social media should come for the later games closer to that 8:00 pm EDT lock.
Favorite NHL DFS Line Stacks
- WPG PP 1
- Stastny/ Connor/ Scheifele (Morrissey, D-men add on)
- BUF 2
- Olofsson/ Staal/ Skinner? (No D-men add on)
- SJS 1
- Kane / Couture / Labanc? (Burns, D-men add on)
Other Stacks to consider: PIT 1, LAK1, VAN 2, SJS 2, WPG 2 (Watch for Vancouver injuries for rearranging of lines, etc.)
Key Abbreviations:
xGF/60= expected goal for per 60 minutes of ice time
GF/60= goals for per 60 minutes of ice time
SC/60= Scoring Chances per 60 minutes of ice time
If you have any additional questions, make sure to reach out to me on Twitter or in our NHL room at the RotoBaller slack chat!
