It was one of the best opening weekends the NFL has had in some time. Week 1 ended after the ultimate duel between Case Keenum and Blaine Gabbert. They combined to throw for 300 total yards. Astonishing.

This highlight doesn’t even show a pass that Keenum completed. Is Jeff Fisher really sure Jared Goff isn’t better than him?

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Week 1 Recap

Here are a couple other observations that could have been written after Week 1 of 2011:

• The Browns do not have a viable quarterback.
• The Saints can’t play defense.
• The Chargers once again collapsed.
• Jeff Fisher will go 7-9 or 8-8.
• Rex Ryan doesn’t have an offense.

 
I went three for four last week on my Week 1 survivor league picks. My only incorrect pick was the Browns over the Eagles. Carson Wentz played well and Jim Schwartz’s defense looked really good.

For those of you unfamiliar with survivor pools it’s very simple; pick a team to win each week, if they win you move on to the next week. BUT you cannot use that team ever again. There is NO point spread involved.

 

Survivor League Strategy

After losing in many many survivor pools over the year, I have learned what games to avoid.

1. Avoid divisional bouts

Last season in Week 2, the Saints were a sure thing lock of the year against the Buccaneers in New Orleans. Tampa Bay ended up winning, knocking many people out of their survivor contests. Also last year, the Packers were heavy favorites against the 1-7 Lions in Lambeau and proceeded to lose.

2. Avoid taking a road team

I would rather put my money on a home team with a home field advantage. The rule doesn't apply to a team playing in San Diego. The road teams fans fill up a majority of Qualcomm Stadium, making it a de facto home game for the road team.

3. Avoid using all the top teams early so you can use one later in the year

You do not want to be alive in Week 11 deciding if you should pick the Browns, Chargers, or Rams.

Before making any picks, look at each point spread. Vegas has the best minds, smarter than any of us, use them to get a glimpse at how each team is projected to fare that week.

I will be using the lines from sportsbook.ag for the season.

Also note that Week 1 features one big upset that no one expects. Last year saw the Bears fell to the Bills as seven-point favorites.

 

Top Survivor Picks for Week 2

@Panthers -13.5 vs. 49ers

Similarly to last season, the Niners started off with an upset home win in the second game of the Monday night doubleheader. They then went to the East Coast for a 1 p.m. game and got crushed by the Steelers 43-18. The Steelers were 0-1 heading into that game and needed a win after losing the Thursday night opener to the New England Patriots. The Panthers are 0-1 off of a Thursday night opening loss to the defending champion Broncos. Now the Panthers will come back home and destroy the 49ers. They will win by 28. This is eerily similar to last season. It’s going to be really hard for the Niners to play in the Eastern Time zone after a late Monday night game.

@Lions -6 vs. Titans

I like the Lions here, but I am a tad nervous of a let down from last week. I’m never sure which Lions team will come to play. But do I want to put my survivor league chances in the hands of this one?

@Cardinals -6.5 vs. Buccaneers

Must win game for Arizona. If they lose, they’re in big trouble. I like the Cards, but Jameis scares me. If he shows no fear, then it could be a close one.

 

Top Survivor Picks to Avoid for Week 2

@Rams +6 vs. Seahawks

I was spot on with my take on the Rams-Niners game. I said, “The Niners will put eight in the box and make Keenum beat them, which he will not. The Niners will win in a low scoring affair.”

Bill Simmons tweeted this towards the end of the game,

“Rams doing everything possible to throw gamblers off their seemingly putrid scent before next week's shocking Seattle upset.”

This is so true. Seattle doesn’t get going until the second half of the season. Russell Wilson’s ankle is banged up. It will be hard for him to scramble away from the Rams' tenacious defensive line. The Dolphins almost beat the Seahawks in Seattle with 10 points. All Case Keenum has to do is score 17 points and I think the Seahawks can be beat in a low scoring game.

The Rams always play Seattle tough. They beat them twice last season, and three of the last four times these two teams have played.

 

Jaguars +3 vs. @Chargers

How are the Chargers a favorite for this game? Has Vegas not realized that the Chargers don’t really have a home crowd and shouldn’t be given the automatic three points that are usually awarded to a home team. The line here should be pick ’em. Every Chargers home game is a de facto neutral site played in perfect weather.

Classic Chargers to blow that lead. I was unable to watch the games last week, but saw the Chargers up 24-3. About 30 minutes later, I saw the Chiefs had tied it up at 27. I was not surprised at all. It was vintage Chargers. Oh, and Mike McCoy should get canned already.

The Jaguars played the Packers really tough last week. They held the Packers to 294 total yards and Aaron Rodgers to a mere 199 yards. The defense should have no problem stopping the Chargers without Keenan Allen.