As you all know football is back. I'm not going to bore you about cliches. Rather, let's get right into week one.

Week one is always the hardest week to gamble on. This year’s opening weekend is one of the more difficult in recent years. I have scrolled through the lines at sportsbook.ag more than 20 times. I still cannot find a game I’m in love with. The only game that seems like a lock is the Seahawks against the lousy Dolphins. But I will try to avoid a team as good as the Seahawks to save them for a future date.

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Survivor League Strategy

After losing in many many survivor pools over the year, I have learned what games to avoid.

1. Avoid divisional bouts

Last season in week 2, the Saints were a sure thing lock of the year against the Bucs in New Orleans. Tampa ended up winning, knocking many people out of their survivor contests.

2. Avoid taking a road team

I would rather put my money on a home team with a home field advantage. The rule doesn't apply to a team playing in San Diego. The road teams fans fill up a majority of Qualcomm Stadium, making it a de facto home game for the road team.

3. Avoid taking a top five team in order to use them in the later year.

You do not want to be alive in week 11 deciding if you should pick the Browns or Chargers.

Before making any picks, look at each point spread. Vegas has the best minds, smarter than any of us, use them to get a glimpse at how each team is projected to fare that week.

I will be using the lines from sportsbook.ag for the season.

 

Top Survivor Picks for Week 1

@Texans -6 vs. Bears

The Bears secondary is a mess. Starters Kyle Fuller and slot cornerback Bryce Callahan are banged up. The other cornerback is Tracy Porter. His best days are way behind him. If Osweiler can throw a deep ball–he struggled mightily with that last year– the Texans will make easy work of the Bears.

I don’t expect the Bears offense to do much. Johnathan Joseph will cover Alshon Jeffery and Kareem Jackson will take care of Kevin White. Up front, J.J. Watt will play Sunday and even if he is at 25 percent, he’ll demand a double team. Maybe Jadeveon Clowney can make a play or two.

@Seahawks -10 vs. Dolphins

I will not be picking Seattle, but I understand if you do. There is no better play than them. I would just rather use them later on in the season.

 

Top Survivor Picks to Avoid for Week 1

@Browns +3.5 vs. Eagles

You must think I am crazy picking the Browns. Remember when Robert Griffin destroyed the Saints in New Orleans in his rookie opener? I think he will do the same to the Eagles. Like his first year in Washington, Griffin was fresh. He came out of Baylor ready to go. Griffin did not play last season because Jay Gruden hates him. I'm not sure if hate is even the right word.

The Browns signed Hue Jackson as their new coach, which was pretty shocking for Cleveland to hire a good, well respected coach. Jackson will have a strong ground game and play to Griffin’s strengths. Additonally, is there something I don’t know about this baseball sabermetric team?

The Eagles are starting a rookie that was not supposed to play all season. It will also be his first time taking reps with the first team. Hmm, I wonder how that goes. It would be a good thing if Carson Wentz were to get stuck in the bathroom before the game. Anyways, I lost all my trust in the Eagles after last season. They underachieved when you thought they’d play well and would win when you thought they’d get crushed. Don’t let it surprise you when the Eagles lose a game they should have won on Sunday.

@49ers+2.5 vs. Rams

In addition to this game being a divisional rivalry, how can anyone take the Rams? This team is led by Mr. 8-8 Jeff Fisher. After watching Hard Knocks, I have no idea how he still has a job. He is not a leader of men. He has no emotion. It's like listening to a college professor lecture. The Rams will have a very good defense, but their quarterback is Case Keenum, whose career record is 5-10. And somehow they are 2.5 point favorites.

The 49ers played in the second Monday night game last year against the Vikings. Similarly, they were 3 point underdogs. No one gave them a shot. They won 20-3. The Niners will put eight in the box and make Keenum beat them, which he will not. The Niners will win in a low scoring affair.