RADIO
Are you ready to overreact to Week 1? Should we just pencil in all the players who did well in Week 1 into our Week 2 lineups? Of course not! But how much new data and info do we use and does anything from the 2022 season still matter at all? With any kind of data, larger sample sizes are better, but we rarely have enough time during an NFL season to get to where we have a large enough sample, so we are constantly trying to weigh multiple smaller sets of data - which is right where we find ourselves early on in the NFL season. So today, we are going to examine some data from both last year and Week 1 in order to start getting ready for Week 2 DFS contests.
This year, I am launching a "first look" article that should drop every Tuesday. This piece is intended to be a one-stop shop for readers to begin their DFS research for the week. While it always pays to wait for all the relevant information to come in during the week regarding weather, injuries, and even Vegas line movement, it's also a good idea to get out in front of things early as there is a lot of data to consume!
We are looking at the NFL DFS main slate for FanDuel and DraftKings on Sunday, September 17. This analysis and data dump will vary from week to week, but I am hoping that you find it helpful when starting your weekly research. Week 1 is always wild and a whole lot of fun as we will most assuredly have some unexpected results from teams that we thought we knew what to expect from this season! Do yourself a favor if you haven't already and pick up an NFL RotoBaller Premium Season Pass and get my DFS cheat sheets and plays all season long. Use promo code THUNDERDAN to let them know I sent you!
Featured Promo: Get any DFS Premium Bundle for for 10% off using code BALLER! Win more with expert advice from proven winners and exclusive DFS tools. Get instant access to RotoBaller's Lineup Optimizers, Research Stations, daily picks and VIP chat rooms across 10 sports! Go Premium, Win More!
Week 2 Vegas Totals and Team Data
Every week we will be looking at the top implied team totals for the main slate. This week, we drop the top 2022 scoring offenses for the top-scoring teams and defensive showings from teams in week one.
Top Implied Team Totals for Week 2: Main Slate Only
- Bills - 29.5
- Chiefs, Lions - 27.25
- Niners - 26.25
- Bengals - 25.0
- Cowboy, Jaguars - 24.75
- Chargers 24.25
Jared Goff ➡️ Amon-Ra St. Brown
The Lions are on the board with the first touchdown of the NFL season, after a fake punt on their own 17-yard line kept the drive alive. 7-0 Detroit pic.twitter.com/wVTmT1CJsG
— Sak Sports Blog (@SakSports) September 8, 2023
2023 Top-Scoring Teams Through One Week: Points Per Game
- Cowboys - 40
- Packers - 38
- Chargers - 34
- Jaguars - 31
- Niners, Rams - 30
2023 Stingiest Defenses Through One Week: Points Allowed Per Game
- Cowboys - 0
- Niners - 7
- Ravens - 9
- Falcons - 10
- Rams - 13
Some context is always important, so let's keep in mind that the Cowboys scored 14 points in the first quarter against the Giants on a blocked kick return and an interception return. Their defense was certainly impressive in the shutout over New York, but it's not as if their offense put up 40 points.
The Packers also had a late interception return for a touchdown against the Bears, but they still did score 31 points on offense as the Jordan Love era in Green Bay is off to a roaring start.
The chalky Dolphins-Chargers game delivered for those who stacked it up as Tyreek Hill and Austin Ekeler both paid off their salaries with ease and we even had a few surprising big games there with Joshua Kelley popping off with two touchdowns. If Ekeler can't go this week due to injury, then Kelley should end up being a pretty popular play.
We should also note that despite the Bills' offense looking quite mediocre against a great Jets defense last night as Josh Allen turned it over more often than Zach Wilson, Vegas still has confidence in them to bounce back and put up a big number against the Raiders defense this week.
Week 2 DFS Matchups
Here, we want to get specific not only with some mismatches for both passing and rushing offenses, but some individual positional matchups as well. Once again, we are mixing and matching some data from last season and Week One.
Top-Five Matchups for Passing Offenses (2022 data)
(Yards Passing and Yards Allowed Passing ranks in parentheses)
- Kansas City (1) vs. Jacksonville (27)
- L.A. Chargers (3) vs. Tennessee (32)
- Buffalo (5) vs. Las Vegas (29)
- Tampa Bay (2) vs. Chicago (18)
- Seattle (12) vs. Detroit (30)
Most Passing Yards Week One
- L.A. Rams - 334
- Detroit - 250
- Green Bay - 237
- Jacksonville - 237
- Kansas City - 236
It's very notable here that Miami (466), Minnesota (328), and New England (306) are all NOT on the main slate.
Most Passing Yards Allowed Week One
- L.A. Chargers - 466
- Seattle - 334
- Tampa Bay - 328
- Tennessee - 282
- Kansas City - 250
Top-Five Matchups for Rushing Offenses (2022 data)
- Atlanta (2) vs. Green Bay (26)
- NY Giants (6) vs. Arizona (14)
- San Francisco (7) vs. L.A. Rams (13)
- Detroit (11) vs. Seattle (30)
- Tennessee (13) vs. L.A. Chargers (27)
Tyler. Allgeier. This means something to me man.pic.twitter.com/XucRmQpl3l
— Ahaan Rungta (@AhaanRungta) September 10, 2023
Most Rushing Yards Week One
- L.A. Chargers - 234
- San Francisco - 188
- NY Jets - 172
- Carolina - 154
- Atlanta - 130
Most Rushing Yards Allowed Week One
- Cincinnati - 206
- Buffalo - 172
- Atlanta - 154
- Carolina - 130
- NY Giants - 122
2022 Top-Five DvP (Defense vs. Position) Matchups for Each Position
(Top matchup listed first, player to target in parentheses)
QB - Detroit (G. Smith), Kansas City (Lawrence), Tennessee (Herbert), Las Vegas (Allen), Chicago (Mayfield)
RB - Houston (IND RB?), Chicago (White), Seattle (Montgomery/Gibbs), Arizona (Barkley), Las Vegas (Cook)
WR - Tennessee (Allen/Williams), Detroit (Metcalf), Dallas (Wilson), San Francisco (Atwell/Nacua)
TE - Seattle (LaPorta), Arizona (Waller), Atlanta (Musgrave), Tennessee (Everett), Denver (Thomas)
DEF - Indianapolis (HOU), Houston (IND), L.A. Rams (SF), Denver (WAS), Chicago (TB)
Some other interesting DvP data from this season would be that the Chargers allowed the most fantasy points to a QB and WR in their loss to Miami, while the Bears allowed the third most fantasy points to a QB and RB (Aaron Jones) in their loss to Green Bay. Other teams on the main slate who allowed a top-10 performance to two different positions would be Seattle (top-6 RB and top-5 WR), Tampa Bay (top-3 WR, top-6 TE), and Indianapolis (top-8 QB, top-10 RB, top-6 WR).
Week 1 DFS Salary and Injury Analysis
This week I am ditching the FD/DK price point analysis to opt for some cheap stacks, rookie prices, and injury situations - of which there are many after a brutal week one.
Cheap Stacks (FD, DK)
There are plenty of cheap value plays to fit around expensive stacks. As the pricing tightens up each week, I like to look for some of the cheapest viable stacks that feature the QB and one of their receivers (could be WR1, WR2, or TE1). We had a BIG HIT from this group last week as Jordan Love threw two touchdowns to Romeo Doubs as our top-rated cheap stack. It's too bad I came off Doubs due to injury concerns!
First TD of the Jordan Love era, goes to Doubspic.twitter.com/rUnEJA9iww
— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) September 10, 2023
- Tannehill - Hopkins (13.5k, 11.7k)
- Mayfield - Evans (13.9k, 11.3k)
- Love - Doubs (13.5, 10.3k)
- Stafford - Nacua/Atwell (12.2k, 10.3k)
- Purdy - Aiyuk (14.6k, 11.5k)
This Brock Purdy-Brandon Aiyuk 19 yard touchdown had the lowest completion probability (16.5%) of any throw in Week 1, per NextGenStats.pic.twitter.com/dEXqmQm9bx
— Steph Sanchez (@Steph49K) September 12, 2023
Notable Rookie Salaries (FD, DK)
- Anthony Richardson (7.5k, 6.3k) - Richardson gets the biggest price increase of the rookie QBs this week after a solid fantasy showing in Week One.
- C.J. Stroud (6.4k, 5.2k) - Stroud faces off against Richardson this week and his price dipped $200 on DK. He didn't play all that badly, it could be an interesting spot for him and both offenses in general.
- Bijan Robinson (8.1k, 7.9k) - Bijan cracked 20 DK points with just 16 touches, just imagine what will happen when he gets 20+ some week. It's a good spot this week, too.
- Jahmyr Gibbs (5.8k, 6.3k) - Gibbs' usage should increase this week in a good matchup against Seattle.
- Tank Bigsby (5.3k, 4.7k) - Bigsby found paydirt, but still was out-touched by ETN in a big way.
- Zach Charbonnet (4.7k, 4.5k) - a near non-existent opening game for him, only three touches for 11 yards.
- Zay Flowers (6.6k, 5k) - Flowers gets a 1k price bump on both sites after a big opening game, but that might not be enough, he still feels pretty cheap for how good he looked. Mark Andrews could return, though.
- Rashee Rice (5.3k, 3.8k) - Caught a TD in the opener on five targets.
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba (5.2k, 4.5k)
- Quentin Johnston (5.1k, 3.9k)
- Jayden Reed (5.1k, 3.4k)
- Tank Dell (4.8k, 3.2k)
- Marvin Mims Jr. (4.6k, 3.5k) - What a chalk bust he was in Week 1. Jeudy could return this week and it appears the Broncos have several other guys ahead of him.
- Sam LaPorta (5.1k, 3.9k) - LaPorta was heavily involved in Week 1, and looks like he's going to be a fixture in this offense.
- Luke Musgrave (5.0k, 3.2k) - Musgrave played a ton of snaps and finished with 3 catches for 50 yards. He's definitely an intriguing option going forward.
Injury Situations to Monitor This Week
QB: Obviously with Aaron Rodgers done for the season and Zach Wilson now under center, we have to downgrade the Jets' offensive weapons, especially against a good Dallas defense this week.
RB: Austin Ekeler - questionable, Joshua Kelley had a big game in relief last week and could end up getting the bulk of the touches if Ekeler is out. Aaron Jones is questionable with a hamstring injury after having a huge Week One performance. Zack Moss's and Evan Hull's statuses will be important to monitor as the Colts have a favorable matchup on the ground against the Texans.
WR: Jakobi Meyers is in the concussion protocol, which is a shame as he had a huge performance in Week One. Jerry Jeudy could return for the Broncos but is officially questionable. Christian Watson missed Week One for the Packers but could return this week.
TE: Travis Kelce is still questionable, but I am betting he returns this week for a big game against Jacksonville. Mark Andrews also missed Week One, but it sounds like he's trending towards playing this week against the Bengals. Greg Dulcich is going to miss a few weeks for Denver, leaving Adam Trautman as the starter going forward.
Alright, that's it for Week 2 and my data dump! I took quite a bit of time to find some stats that I hope you find helpful -- so that you don't have to! Good luck and make sure you continue following RotoBaller all season long for the best fantasy football, DFS, and betting advice!
Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App
Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!
More Fantasy Baseball Analysis
